Week 10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
In Week 9, Carr was a streaming option and finished as the QB12. He finished two points higher than Josh Allen, QB13, and 0.1 points behind Deshaun Watson, QB11. Carr was 20/31 for 289 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
The Chargers defense is a run funnel, which means they are better against quarterbacks than running backs. They are sixth best against quarterbacks but seventh worst against running backs, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. On paper, this matchup is better for Josh Jacobs than Derek Carr. However, the over/under (48.5) is decent and Carr could benefit from this game turning into a shoot-out. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as a high end QB2.
Week 9 vs Detroit Lions
In Week 8, Carr was a streaming option and he did not disappoint. He was 18/30 for 285 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and finished as the QB6 on the road against the Houston Texans.
We are going back to the well in Week 9. Carr has another good streaming matchup against a porous Lions secondary. The Lions put cornerback Darius Slay on the trading block but did not trade him. Slay missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury but is projected to start this Sunday. Slay’s presence gives a slight downgrade to the matchup but the Lions secondary as a whole is a matchup to exploit. The Lions are eighth-worst against the quarterback position, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. This game has the second-highest over/under (50.5). 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB12.
Week 8 at Houston Texans
In Week 7, Carr was 22/28 for 293 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on the road against a tough Green Bay secondary.
It’s scary to say but Carr is a quarterback streaming option on the road against the Texans. The Texans are ninth-worst against the quarterback position, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. This game has the second-highest over/under (51.5). Also, Tyrell Williams is expected to play, which will help give Carr a true wide receiver threat. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB17.
Week 7 at Green Bay Packers
The Raiders had a bye in Week 6.
Carr could struggle this week against a strong Green Bay secondary. Their defense is seventh-best against the quarterback position, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Carr will also be without his right tackle, Trent Brown, who is inactive for Week 7 with a calf injury. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB22. The Raiders offense is only implied for 20 points. Better quarterback streaming options should be available.
Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears in London
Through four weeks, Carr is the QB22. In Week 4 against the Colts, Carr was 21/31 for 189 yards, two touchdowns, and finished as the QB18.
Technically, this is a home for the Raiders but it will take place in London. Carr’s struggles will most likely continue against a stout Bears defense, who rank ninth best against the quarterback position, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB27. The Raiders offense is implied for just 17.75 points. Please read our weekly quarterback streaming article for better starting options.
Week 4 at Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders quickly fell behind the Vikings and the majority of the game was played in a negative game script. Even with this game script, Carr only threw for 242 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Through 3 Weeks, he ranks 27th in deep-ball rate among 34 qualified signal-callers, per Pro Football Focus. During the preseason, Gruden publicly told Carr to attempt more downfield passes but it looks like his request fell on deaf ears.
Carr may be forced into negative game script again because the Raiders are road underdogs (+7) and only implied for 19.5 points against the Indianapolis Colts. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Carr ranked as the QB27. Carr owners should look for better streaming options.
Week 3 at Minnesota Vikings
Carr had a fast start against the Chiefs. He threw a touchdown pass to Tyrell Williams to give the Raiders a 10-0 first quarter lead. However, it was all downhill in the final three quarters. He was 23/38 for 198 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and finished as the QB27 with 9.7 fantasy points. Carr was a decent streaming option against a poor Chiefs secondary but he was not able to capitalize on the matchup.
Unfortunately for Carr, he will face a very difficult Week 3 matchup on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders are road underdogs (+8) and only implied for 17.75 points. Our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric has the Vikings defense ranked eighth best against quarterbacks. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr as the QB28. Carr owners should look for better streaming options.
Week 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Derek Carr had a highly efficient Week 1 against the Broncos. He completed 22 out of 26 passing attempts for 259 yards and one touchdown. He had the luxury of playing with the lead in the fourth quarter and was able to lean on rookie running back, Josh Jacobs. Unfortunately, he will not have the same luxury this week because the Chiefs are implied for 30 points. The Raiders could find themselves behind by multiple touchdowns, which would force Gruden to rely heavily on Carr. The good news is the Kansas City secondary is exploitable. Last week, they gave up 75 yards and one touchdown to Nick Foles, before he left with a broken collarbone, and 275 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Gardner Minshew.
Carr is a Week 2 streaming option in single quarterback leagues but not for the faint of heart. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Carr ranked as the QB17.
Week 1 vs. Denver Broncos
The starting skilled position players surrounding Carr has changed dramatically. The Raiders added wide receivers Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson, and Hunter Renfrow and rookie running back Josh Jacobs. Antonio Brown would be included in the list but was traded to the Patriots.
Fantasy owners should have better streaming options on the waiver wire than Carr. He has a very difficult matchup against the Broncos who are the sixth-best defense against quarterbacks per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Carr as the QB29 in Week 1 with a median projection of 12.1 fantasy points. Carr is an easy fade.
Fantasy Upside
2016 seems like a distant memory when Carr led the Raiders to 12 wins and finished third place in AP MVP voting behind Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. It probably seems like a long time ago because the Raiders followed up their 12-win season with two atrocious years. They finished 2017 with six wins and 2018 with four wins. For better or worse, Jon Gruden returns in his second year as the head coach and the Raiders are looking to turn the corner.
Out with the old and in with the new. The starting skilled position players surrounding Carr has changed dramatically. The Raiders added wide receivers Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson, and Hunter Renfrow and rookie running back Josh Jacobs. Tight end Darren Waller, was with the team last year but he will take over as the starter because Jared Cook went to New Orleans. Carr is coming off a career-low 19 touchdowns and has a good chance to improve, as he will lean heavily on one of the best route runners in the league, Antonio Brown.
Fantasy Downside
The offensive line ranked 26th in pass protection, per Football Outsiders, and they are projected to face the sixth most difficult pass rush schedule, per Warren Sharp. Carr also averaged the least amount of time to throw in the NFL, 2.55 seconds per Next Gen Stats. He will need improved offensive line play to take advantage of the new offensive weapons. Taking a step in the positive direction may be a tall order because 4for4’s offensive line expert, Justin Edwards, has Oakland’s line ranked 20th and it doesn’t help that Richie Incognito is suspended for the first two games.
2019 Bottom Line
The Raiders averaged the fifth lowest number of points per game with 18.1. This number must increase dramatically for the team to stay competitive. Gruden could rely heavily on Carr because they will face a slew of high scoring offenses, including Kansas City, LA Chargers, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay, and Houston. Carr’s fantasy numbers could benefit from frequently playing in negative game script situations against these high-powered offenses. Carr might be game scripted into attempting more passes but it may not matter if the offensive line does not give him enough time to throw. The Raiders improved their offensive weapons and it will be entertaining to see if Carr has developed any chemistry with his teammates on HBO’s Hard Knocks. Carr will face a middle of the pack, 16th easiest quarterback schedule, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
