Week 2 vs. New York Jets
The Raiders could not have hand-picked an easier home opener against the NFL's version of 'Trust the Process'. The Raiders have the second-highest implied team total in Vegas at 28.5 points. Fire up Carr as a top-10 option in Week 2 against a team he lit up for 4 touchdowns in 2015, after a respectable Week 1 outing of 18.7 points against the Titans.
Week 1 at Tennessee Titans
Derek Carr opens the season with a matchup against a Titans secondary that struggled last season. Tennessee was dead last in our aFPA vs. quarterbacks last season and they were bottom-five overall in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Carr averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game on the road last season, below his overall season average of 16.8. Nevertheless, Carr should be considered a low-end QB1 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Derek Carr took another step forward in his third NFL season, tying for seventh in the league with 28 touchdown passes to only six interceptions. His 1.1 percent interception rate was fourth in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts, behind only Tom Brady, Sam Bradford, and Dak Prescott. Carr also has one of the best offensive lines in the AFC and two stud wideouts in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Only 26, Carr still has yet to reach the prime years for most fantasy quarterbacks.
Fantasy Downside
Even if you factor in the game Carr missed in Week 17, he still only finished 15th in fantasy points per game at the position (17.2). Carr's yards per attempt average was also only 18th (7.03). He was also outside the top 12 in passing yards (3,937) and doesn't have the rushing abilities to make up for that in fantasy (70 rush yards last year, zero career rushing touchdowns).
2017 Bottom Line
Carr is an upside play in fantasy drafts this year. He has yet to produce top-12 fantasy numbers in his career, but he is still young. At his eighth round ADP, it will take a leap of faith for drafters hoping he enters QB1 territory. There are a handful of options available later in drafts we have ranked higher than Carr.
Week 16 vs. Indianapolis
Derek Carr struggled again with a 19-30 completion rate for 213 yards and one touchdown in a 19-16 win against the Chargers in Week 15. Carr has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this season, but his injured pinky finger is clearly limiting him as he is no longer taking snaps behind center in favor of the shotgun. Carr is a mid-range QB1 against the Colts, who grade out as a very favorable matchup in regards to QB aFPA.
Week 15 at San Diego
Derek Carr posted a pathetic 17-41 completion rate for 117 yards and zero touchdowns in a 13-21 loss against the Chiefs in Week 14. Carr has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this season, but his Week 14 performance on Thursday Night Football was one of the worst in recent history. Maybe it was the cold, maybe it was still his injured pinky finger, but he only completed 17-of-41 passes and ended the game with an average of 2.85 yards per attempt. Carr is a mid-range QB1 against the Chargers, who grade out as a below-average matchup in regards to QB aFPA.
Week 14 at Kansas City
Derek Carr was 19-35 for 260 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-24 win over the Bills in Week 13. Carr has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this season. but his injured pinky really seemed to be a factor in Week 13. Carr still ranks among the top-15 quarterbacks in completion percentage, deep-ball completion percentage and completion percentage when pressured through 13 weeks. He's a mid-range QB2 against the Chiefs this week, but they do rank as a high-end matchup in regards to QB aFPA.
Week 13 vs. Buffalo
Derek Carr was 26-38 for 315 yards and two touchdowns in a 35-32 win over the Panthers in Week 12. His pinky injury isn't expected to hinder his ability to throw the ball, which is good news, as Carr is top-10 in NFL completion percentage (66.4 percent) and has been solid from an efficiency standpoint in 2016. Before the bye, Carr set the Raiders franchise record for passing yards with 513 in Week 8. Carr is a low-end QB1 against the Bills, but they do rank as a below-average matchup in regards to QB aFPA.
Week 12 at Carolina
Derek Carr was 21-of-31 for 295 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-20 win over the Texans on Monday Night Football. Carr is a low-end QB1 against the Panthers, but they do rank as an above-average matchup in regards to QB aFPA. Carr is top-10 in NFL completion percentage (66.2 percent) and has been solid from an efficiency standpoint in 2016. Before the bye, Carr set the Raiders franchise record for passing yards with 513 in Week 8.
Week 11 vs. Houston
Derek Carr was 20-31 for 184 yards in a 30-20 win over the Broncos before their Week 10 bye. Carr is a low-end QB1 against the Texans, who rank squarely in the middle of QB aFPA. Before the bye, Carr did set the Raiders franchise record for passing yards with 513 in Week 8, but besides that, his last four games have been largely unimpressive. He did face the Broncos last week, but it doesn’t get much easier on Monday Night Football against a Texans team ranked near one of the least favorable in QB aFPA.
Week 9 vs. Denver
Derek Carr exploded for a franchise record 513 yards on 40-59 passing in a 30-25 overtime win against the Bucs last week. At the half-way point of the season, Carr is first in passing attempts (40.4 per game), fifth in passing yards (290.2 per game) and tenth in completion percentage (66.3 percent). That said, Carr is a mid ranged QB2 against the Broncos, who are one of the least favorable in QB aFPA.
