Expected to put up big numbers in Week 4 against a fragile Chicago defense, Derek Carr did not deliver a spectacular game, throwing for 196 yards and two touchdowns. Nevertheless, if you throw out Week 1 when Carr left early with an injury, Derek is averaging 287 yards and has accounted for seven touchdown strikes.
Unfortunately for Carr, the good times are likely coming to an end this weekend. In four games, Denver has allowed the fewest touchdown passes in the NFL. If that was not enough bad news, opponents have only been able to average 185.3 passing yards against the Broncos. With such a brutal matchup ahead, Carr’s value is limited exclusively to mandatory 2QB leagues.
Week 4 at Chicago
Things can change fast in fantasy football. After Week 1, it looked like it was going to be a long season for Derek Carr and the Raiders. Since then, Oakland has won two in a row and Carr has looked great. He threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns in last Sunday’s 27-20 victory over Cleveland.
While Chicago is not allowing a large amount of passing yards, the Bears have been burned for eight touchdown passes already. As a result of that (and his fine play), Carr has vaulted into the QB1 ranks. Those needing a streamer due to injuries or the bye week blues should not hesitate to give Carr a shot.
Week 5 at Cleveland
After leaving a Week 1 loss to Cincinnati due to injury, there was some early speculation last week Derek Carr would not be able to suit up against Baltimore. By the end of the day, the Ravens were really wishing Carr had been sidelined. The second-year signal caller out of Fresno State threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns as Oakland pulled out a late 37-33 victory.
Carr may not be able to compile a lot of yardage against Cleveland, as the Browns are holding opponents to 199 passing yards per game and their run defense is the worst in the league (which could mean a heavy dose of Latavius Murray). Nonetheless, the Browns have allowed four touchdown passes, which suggests Carr will be able to put up some numbers. If you are dealing with issues at the quarterback position, there are better streamers out there than Carr, but anyone with Derek in a 2-QB league should show no hesitation in starting him.
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati
After a relatively decent rookie year, Derek Carr heads into his second season with some new friends, namely wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. While Crabtree has a lot to prove after a down season in San Francisco, Cooper and Carr connected well during the preseason and the rookie out of Alabama should give Derek the elite target he needs to thrive. Carr has a long way to go before he can even be considered a reliable QB2 in leagues requiring only one quarterback, but he could surprise somewhat against Cincinnati -- especially if the Raiders fall behind.
Originally, when Oakland selected Derek Carr in the second round of the 2014 draft, the initial plan was to have him learn behind veteran Matt Schaub. It was a curious plan, as Schaub had shown serious signs of decline the year before in Houston. And it did not take long for the Raiders to realize Carr was a much better option. In fact, Carr became the first Oakland quarterback since Rich Gannon in 2002 to start 16 games. While Derek provided a downtrodden franchise with a sense of hope, he did not make a major impact in the fantasy world, throwing for 3,270 yards and 21 touchdowns. Can Carr take the next step in his sophomore season and become a consistent presence on fantasy squads?
2015 Upside
Last season, Oakland's receivers were adequate, but there were no stars among the group. The Raiders recognized the need to give Carr a number one receiver by drafting Alabama's Amari Cooper. If Cooper proves to be the real deal, Carr will have the kind of player who can help him compile higher fantasy numbers. And the Raiders did not stop with Cooper, signing running back Roy Helu, who has established a reputation as one of the best pass catching backs in football. They also added former San Francisco receiver Michael Crabtree as a reclamation project and drafted Miami tight end Clive Walford. Additionally, Rod Streater will be back after missing most of the 2014 season due to injury. Carr will definitely have more to work with than he did as a rookie. The Raiders will probably be playing from behind most of the time, enabling Derek to make the most of the fantasy Happy Hour known as garbage time.
2015 Downside
New Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio (a puzzling hire) and new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave have emphasized the running game in their previous stops. And the Raiders will not be banking on past their prime veterans like Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield this season. Roy Helu and Latavius Murray could form a nice duo, ensuring that approach would stay in place. Not only is the emphasis on the run a detriment to Derek's fantasy potential, learning a new offense can be a challenge. While the Raiders added quality center Rodney Hudson in free agency, their offensive line is no better than average. If Cooper turns out to be a disappointment or gets hurt, it is hard to see anyone else on the roster giving Carr the elite target he needs. And there is always the possibility Carr slumps in his second season. Many quarterbacks have looked promising as rookies only to struggle later on.
Bottom Line
In traditional leagues where only one starting quarterback is required, Carr is still not worthy of a roster spot to start the season. He could certainly be added as a streamer at some point if the Raiders show signs of growth. With an improved supporting cast, Carr can now be viewed as a borderline starter in two-quarterback formats.
Week 17 – Derek Carr at Denver Broncos
One of the players offering Oakland some hope heading into 2015, Derek Carr actually fared better against Buffalo’s defense than Aaron Rodgers, throwing for 214 yards and two touchdowns last weekend as the Raiders eliminated the Bills from the playoffs. While Carr has generated mostly positive publicity in his first NFL tour of duty, fantasy glory has largely eluded him. And it will elude him once again on Sunday.
Week 16 – Derek Carr vs. Buffalo Bills
After throwing three touchdowns in a Week 14 win over San Francisco, it seemed only natural Derek Carr would regress last Sunday in a tough matchup at Kansas City. And he did, throwing for 222 yards and just one touchdown. Most observers still like Carr as a long-term option, but his short-term outlook is very gloomy. After all, if Buffalo can shut down Aaron Rodgers, they should have no trouble keeping Carr in check.
Week 15 – Derek Carr at Oakland Raiders
If the Raiders rise from the ashes down the road, they may very well point to last Sunday’s victory over the 49ers as the start of something special. That is especially true for rookie quarterback Derek Carr, who shook off a 52-0 loss to St. Louis in Week 13 to burn the once-vaunted San Francisco defense for 254 yards and three touchdowns. Many quarterbacks would have folded after such a terrible loss and Carr came out swinging. Maybe Carr will not turn out to be a superstar, but at least the Raiders do not have another JaMarcus Russell on their hands. If you have Carr in a dynasty league, you have reason to be hopeful. Nonetheless, redraft value is elusive for Carr right now, especially with the Chiefs desperate for a win to stay in the playoff race.
Week 14 – Derek Carr vs. San Francisco 49ers
In many ways, you have to feel for Derek Carr. What rookie quarterback wouldn’t struggle after being thrown into the fire with the wretched Raiders? Last Sunday represented the lowest point in Carr’s inaugural campaign, as Oakland was shut out 52-0 by the Rams and Carr threw two interceptions before being lifted for Matt Schaub. Unfortunately for Derek, more low points are ahead against an angry San Francisco squad smarting from a loss to Seattle. You can find him once again at the bottom of the board.
Week 13 – Derek Carr at St. Louis Rams
After a rough patch, Derek Carr gave the observers who believe his future is bright a reason to smile. Late in Week 12 with the game on the line, Carr drove the Raiders to the winning touchdown, finding James Jones with a bullet in the end zone for the decisive score. While Carr was clutch, the fantasy productivity was not there. He threw for 174 yards and the lone touchdown toss to Jones. There is no denying Derek’s promise, but fantasy owners need to continue to shy away, especially with the St. Louis defense on the rise of late.
