Week 2 vs. New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr played fine in a close victory over the Panthers to start the season, connecting on 22 of 30 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over and looked competent feeding the ball to Josh Jacobs. Carr should remain the starter all year, giving him value in 2QB leagues, but this is a running team, and fantasy owners in single quarterback formats will have a hard time justifying a roster spot for him for much of the season.
This week, Carr faces a tough, opportunistic Saints defense that recorded two interceptions, including a pick-six against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Week 1. Carr is a risky start in most weeks, but especially with Henry Ruggs hobbled and a tough matchup against an aggressive defense, it might be best to leave Carr on the bench in most league formats.
Week 1 at Carolina Panthers
Carr actually wasn’t terrible last year, throwing for 4,054 yards and 21 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. With Marcus Mariota on injured reserve, Carr’s job looks a hair safer, which puts him back in streaming play in good matchups. This is not one of those good matchups. While the Panthers will surely miss the retired Luke Kuechly, they have a young and talented defensive line and some emerging players in the secondary who will make things hard on Carr in Week 1. Fantasy owners should leave Carr on waivers for now in most leagues, or on the bench in 2QB leagues.
Fantasy Upside
For how maligned Derek Carr is, he’s actually put up respectable fantasy numbers throughout his career. He’s coming off two straight seasons with at least 4,000 passing yards and threw 21 touchdowns to only eight interceptions last year. He was the 20th-ranked quarterback in fantasy points per game, putting him above names like Philip Rivers, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. He has the seventh-best offensive line in football according to Justin Edwards, and gained significant weapons in the draft, including speedster Henry Ruggs and all-purpose player Lynn Bowden.
Fantasy Downside
Carr’s main downside is any challenge he could potentially get from the recently acquired Marcus Mariota. Mariota brings a whole other element to the game with his scrambling ability, and if the Raiders struggle early on, Carr could have a shorter leash than he’s used to after starting for the past six seasons.
2020 Bottom Line
Carr doesn’t cost you anything in most leagues, making him a viable streaming option and possible backup quarterback for fantasy owners who wish to punt the position early in the draft. In 2QB or SuperFlex leagues, he offers some safety as a bye-week filler with upside, as his potential to improve with a better supporting cast is better than advertised. Carr is 29 years old and may be entering the prime of his career.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
In Week 16, Carr was 26/30 for 291 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, scored a rushing touchdown and finished as the QB8.
The Raiders are motivated to win because they still have a slim chance of making the playoffs. A lot of pieces would have to fall into place but it is still mathematically possible.
The Denver defense is eighteenth best against quarterbacks, per our schedule adjust fantasy points metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as a low-end QB2. Carr has been a streaming option several times this season but is a risky start on the road with the Raiders implied for 18.75 points.
Week 16 at Los Angeles Chargers
In Week 15, Carr was 22/36 for 267 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, and finished as the QB19.
The Chargers defense is third-best against quarterbacks, per our schedule adjust fantasy points metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked outside the top 24 quarterbacks. Carr has been a streaming option several times this season but is not in play for single quarterback league championship matchups.
Week 15 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
In Week 14, Carr was 25/34 for 262 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and finished as the QB11.
The blueprint for beating Jacksonville is attacking them on the ground. They aren’t great against quarterbacks, thirteenth worst per our schedule adjust fantasy points metric, but they are second to last against running backs. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as a low-end QB2 this week. Gameflow is very difficult to predict but this game sets up better for Oakland’s running backs than Carr and his receivers.
Week 14 vs. Tennessee Titans
Carr has been a streaming candidate several times this season but should not be in consideration against the Titans. They are the 19th defense against quarterbacks, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB26. Better streaming options should be available on the waiver wire.
Week 13 at Kansas City Chiefs
On the road in Week 12 against the Jets, Carr was 15/27 for 127 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and finished as the QB28. The Raiders’ offense only scored 3 points and was a huge disappointment.
Carr has been a streaming candidate several times this season but should not be in consideration on the road against the Chiefs. They are the seventeenth best defense against quarterbacks, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB28. Better streaming options should be available on the waiver wire.
Week 12 at New York Jets
In Week 11 against the Bengals, Carr was 25/29 for 292 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and finished as the QB11.
Carr has been a streaming option several times this season and is in that category again if you are in need of a fringe QB1. The Jets defense is a pass funnel and seventh-worst against quarterbacks, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB12.
Week 11 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
In Week 10 against the Chargers, Carr was 21/31 for 218 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions, and finished as the QB18.
Carr has been a streaming option several times this season and he is in that category again if you are in need of a fringe QB1. The Raiders have the highest implied team total, 29.75 points, this week. The Bengals defense is fifth-worst against quarterbacks, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Carr ranked as the QB9.
