Week 9 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Derek Carr was about as bad as you can get last week in a shutout loss to the Saints. He had season lows in completion percentage (57.7%) and passing yards (101), and finished with zero touchdowns and an interception. He even lost a yard rushing and was sacked three times. Let’s hope Carr has a short memory.
This week, Carr has a nice matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 20th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Carr should rebound after such a poor performance, but we still have him ranked outside of QB1 territory coming off such a dismal performance. Consider him a nice QB2 or bye-week filler against Jacksonville.
Week 8 at New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr had an efficient 241 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Texans last week as the Raiders relied on the legs of Josh Jacobs to secure the victory. Carr is the QB15 in fantasy points per game this season but only 1.8 fantasy points per game separates number seven (Geno Smith). The quarterback position has been brutal this year.
This week, Carr has a nice matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 20th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders have had a tough schedule so far this year, but Carr should feast on a struggling New Orleans defense. We have him ranked as a low-end QB1 option in Week 8.
Week 7 vs. Houston Texans
Derek Carr had 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Chiefs before the bye last week. The Raiders have played better than their 1-4 record would suggest but they’ve had a brutal start to the season and their defense is 28th in points allowed. Meanwhile, Carr is the QB11 in fantasy points per game and should continue to air it out.
Carr has a tough matchup this week against the Texans, who actually rank ninth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks this season. Still, expect a busy day for the Raiders’ offense as their defense won’t be able to stop even Houston. We have Carr ranked as a solid QB1 this week. Start him.
Week 5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Derek Carr struggled against the Broncos last week, as the Raiders chose to run the ball in a victory over the Broncos. He was limited to just 188 yards and zero touchdowns, though he also didn’t throw any interceptions and added 40 yards on the ground. Carr had a season-low 34 pass attempts, which should be more of an outlier than the norm.
This week, Carr faces a Chiefs defense that ranks 28th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks this season. Tom Brady – after looking very un-Tom Brady-ish so far – tossed three touchdowns and 385 yards against this defense last week. Carr should get plenty of opportunities to air it out this week, and we have him as a fringe QB1 option.
Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos
Derek Carr had a decent enough start last week against the Titans, throwing for 303 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. However, the team is now 0-3 on the season and Carr will need to put some points on the board this week against the division-rival Broncos if he wants to quell any criticism.
The Denver defense ranks 12th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks and just stymied Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday night, so it won’t be easy for Carr. Still, this offense should be a bigger challenge than what Denver has faced so far, giving Carr some upside. We have him ranked as a fringe QB1 option this week.
Week 3 at Tennessee Titans
Derek Carr had 252 yards and a pair of touchdowns in an overtime loss to the Cardinals last week. The Raiders are 0-2 to start the season, but they’ve played against a tough pair of opponents in Arizona and the Los Angeles Chargers. Carr isn’t’ putting up great numbers, but he does have two touchdown passes in each game.
This week, he’ll face a Titans defense that got shredded by Josh Allen and the Bills last week. While Carr isn’t going to put up Josh Allen numbers, the matchup should be good enough to view him as a QB1 option. We have him hovering around our top-10 quarterbacks this week, and he’s worth starting.
Week 2 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Derek Carr had 295 yard and a pair of touchdowns against the Chargers last week, but he also threw three picks and fumbled twice in a tough loss. Carr’s 37 pass attempts are right on par with his average from last year, a good sign with the new coaching staff in place. Plus, he clearly felt comfortable with Davante Adams (10-141-1), which should be good for his long-term fantasy potential.
This week, Carr faces a Cardinals defense that just got torched by Patrick Mahomes to the tune of five touchdown passes. While Carr is definitely not Mahomes, the game could be the kind of shootout prone to create fantasy points, and the Cardinals clearly have some defensive issues Carr and Adams can exploit. We have Carr ranked as a viable QB1 this week.
Week 1 at Los Angeles Chargers
Derek Carr three for a career-high 4,804 yards last season in a year with a flurry of off-field distractions. He also threw a career-high 14 interceptions to go with 23 touchdowns, but those numbers should improve with more stability and better weapons around him. New Head Coach Josh McDaniels has an effective track record coaching offenses and the Raiders traded for one of the best wide receivers in the game in Davante Adams.
Carr starts his 2022 campaign against the division-rival Chargers. Los Angeles was 16th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks last season, but they made significant upgrades to the defense, including DE Khalil Mack and CB J.C. Jackson, both potentially elite players at their respective positions. Expect a busy afternoon from Carr, but with the matchup potentially tougher than expected and little rushing upside, we have him ranked just outside fantasy QB1 territory.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Derek Carr had a nice start to last season, averaging 401 yards and landing at QB9 through the first three games. It was only after the team fell apart off the field that he started to slump, though he still finished as the QB14. Carr has been remarkably steady, often playing hurt and posting 4,000+ yards in each of his last four seasons, including a career-high 4,804 in 2021. Now entering his age-31 year, he may be poised for his best season yet. Josh McDaniels arrives as head coach after working with Tom Brady for 10 of the last 15 years and he’ll have the best weapons of his career thanks to the addition of DaVante Adams at wide receiver. Carr still has an elite tight end in Darren Waller, a solid running game to support him, and an excellent slot receiver in Hunter Renfrow.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Carr has always seemed a hair below the Tier 2 quarterbacks in the league and it’s possible we’ve seen his best already. McDaniels may or may not have the same success without Tom Brady, though he devised clever ways last season to put Mac Jones in the best position to succeed. Carr also offers very little as a runner, averaging 5.9 yards rushing per game over his career – though he did have three rushing touchdowns in 2020.
2022 Bottom Line
Carr has value. He’s being drafted as the QB14 and he finished last season as the QB14. If you believe less dysfunction, better weapons, and upside in coaching can give him an uptick in scoring, he’s a bargain in the ninth round. He’s only thrown for more than 30 touchdowns once in his career, way back in 2015, but if he can top that number and maintain his yardage totals from last season, there’s a chance he greatly outperforms his ADP.
Week 17 at Indianapolis Colts
Derek Carr threw for 201 yards, a touchdown and a pick in a victory over the Broncos last week. Carr has put up that 1/1 TD/Int line in four of his last six games and hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in a game since November 14th against the Chiefs. Against a tough Colts defense this week, he’s too risky to bank on in your lineup. Sit him.
