Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears
Derek Carr came back to earth a bit last week in a loss to the Chargers, throwing for just 196 yards to go with his two touchdowns and a pick. Carr was on a tear to start the season, but it always felt a little like fool’s gold from a fantasy perspective.
This week, Carr has a tough matchup against a Bears defense that ranks 10th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Expect another difficult game for Carr, and he should be relegated to solid QB2 status, instead of dabbling in QB1 numbers. Sit him in most leagues.
Week 4 at Los Angeles Chargers
Derek Carr had another strong performance against the Dolphins last week, throwing for 386 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Carr has been one of the best fantasy surprises so far this season, putting together QB1 numbers at an extremely low cost. The Raiders are clicking right now against some tough defenses, so it’s hard to think this is too much of a fluke.
This week, Carr faces a Chargers defense that ranks first in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, with their significant talents staying on the field for the first time in what seems like forever. Temper expectations this week for the league’s leader in passing yards, and we have him ranked as a fringe QB1 option.
Week 3 vs. Miami Dolphins
Don’t look now, but Derek Carr leads the league in passing yards! Carr has the Raiders sitting at 2-0 and is coming off a 382-yard, two-touchdown performance against the vaunted Pittsburgh defense. While it’s hard to trust Carr after years of QB2 performances, it’s hard to ignore what the Raiders’ offense is doing through two weeks.
This week, Carr faces a Dolphins defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to under 16 points in both games this season, and has been tremendous at creating turnovers for the past year-plus. As such, it may be risky to bank on Carr repeating his performance. That being said, if you need an injury replacement or streaming option, Carr’s production thus far gives him QB1 upside. We have him ranked as a solid QB2 option, which seems about right.
Week 2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Derek Carr won a shootout against the Ravens on Monday night and wound up with 435 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Carr has a tough matchup this week against the Steelers, who just held Josh Allen in check and ranked third in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks last year. Don’t expect another 400-yard performance from Carr, who may really struggle against this defense and shouldn’t be anywhere near 1QB lineups.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Derek Carr was actually 13th in fantasy points last year, despite most people thinking he’s awful. He’s a steady hand who has been remarkably durable throughout his career and he has at least 4,000 yards in each of the past three seasons. He also had a 27/9 TD/Int ratio last year. His downside is the lack of rushing production, but if you need someone to get you solid and consistent production, Carr has QB2 value.
The Ravens were middle-of-the-road against opposing quarterbacks last season, and they have a pretty explosive offense, so there’s potential for Carr to throw a fair amount in this game. Fantasy managers should consider him a quality second option in leagues that allow two quarterbacks.
Fantasy Upside
Derek Carr was very quietly the QB13 last year. That’s pretty good for a guy you could often find waiting for you on the waiver wire. Carr is nothing if not consistent. He’s had over 4,000 yards in each of the past three years and his touchdown totals have never dipped below 19 in seven years as a starter. Last year, he threw for 4,103 yards and 27 touchdowns, with just nine interceptions. This year, he should be helped by the additions of John Brown and Kenyan Drake and should continue the same production he’s had over the past few seasons.
Fantasy Downside
Carr doesn’t have a ton of upside. What you see is what you get. The Raiders also brought back Marcus Mariota to back him up. Mariota has a bit of a following and if the Raiders struggle, it’s always possible the team gives Mariota a chance.
2021 Bottom Line
Carr is a nice value as a QB2 in all fantasy league formats. He’s available in the last few rounds of all drafts and provides a great, steady bye week filler for your starter. He’s also a nice fallback option if you swing on a slightly riskier starter or a safe value in 2QB and SuperFlex formats.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
Derek Carr somehow managed to return to action last week after getting hurt in the previous game, and he put up solid fantasy numbers in a strange and narrow loss to the Dolphins. He wound up with 336 yards and a touchdown passing, and he added a rushing touchdown. Carr has been better than his reputation this season as a viable and efficient streaming option in nice matchups.
This week, Carr faces a Broncos defense that ranks 10th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Not a great matchup, but the Raiders will want to finish strong after a disappointing second half to the season, especially against a division rival. Carr is a fringe-QB1 option this week, and a nice streamer if your starter is sitting or hurt.
Week 16 vs. Miami Dolphins
Yeah, I know Carr may start. But the Dolphins are really good - fifth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks - and with him coming off an injury, I'm just not very interested in using him on my championship team. Hopefully, you have better options available to you. Sit him.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Derek Carr struggled against the Colts last week, throwing for 316 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions, including a pick-six. He added a rushing touchdown, however, turning it into a solid fantasy day overall. Carr has five passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns over the past two games, as he tries to keep the Raiders in the hunt for that final wildcard spot.
This week, Carr faces a Chargers defense that ranks 25th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, giving him upside as a potential streaming option. The Raiders need to win, and the Chargers are likely to score points against a dreadful Las Vegas defense, so Carr could put up some garbage-time stats at the very least. If you need some help off the wire, Carr has some fringe QB1 potential in a nice matchup.
Week 14 vs. Indianapolis Colts
After a dismal performance against the Falcons, Derek Carr delivered against the Jets last week. He finished a narrow win with a completed near-Hail Mary touchdown pass, which put him at 381 yards, three touchdowns and an interception on the day. Carr also ran in a score. He’s been hot and cold when it comes to actual fantasy points this season, but he’s been fairly efficient in guiding the Raiders to a 7-5 record, throwing 22 touchdowns to just five interceptions.
Carr will have his work cut out for him against the Colts this week. They rank ninth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks this season and just held DeShaun Watson to no passing touchdowns and a pick last week – although they did allow 341 passing yards and a rushing touchdown to Watson. Still, Carr is a matchup-based option in most leagues, and this isn’t the one to bank on him if you can help it. We have him just inside our top-20 this week, making him a low-end QB2 option.
