Week 2 at Carolina Panthers
Derek Carr was Derek Carr in his first game as a Saint. Not great but not terrible either. Just enough to keep the offense moving but won’t exactly wow you. That’s fine for a QB2 spot but probably not much more than that. He did throw for over 300 yards in Week 1, so that’s a plus. Carolina should be a bit tougher of a matchup than Tennessee was.
Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans
Derek Carr officially makes his Saints debut Sunday against the Titans, a good matchup for Carr and the Saints. The Titans have to prove their worth on defense, especially in the secondary, so the Saints can move the ball on offense. He won't have Alvin Kamara but he does have Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. He's an intriguing sleeper option in daily leagues and worth a low-end QB2 spot if you can start a second quarterback.
Fantasy Upside
It's going to be weird seeing Derek Carr in a jersey other than a Raiders one, but he is now the quarterback of the Saints. He joins an offense that includes one of the top rookies from 2022, wide receiver Chris Olave, a hopefully healthy Michael Thomas and an interesting option in Rashid Shaheed. If anything, New Orleans should see better production at the quarterback position than they had between Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston last season.
Fantasy Downside
Taysom Hill is still floating around and the Saints still like using him in the red zone, so if the Saints are close to scoring, there's always the chance Carr won't even be on the field to potentially finish off the drive, limiting his fantasy potential. The Saints will also feed the ball to the trio of Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams and, maybe sporadically, Kendre Miller.
2023 Bottom Line
Carr should still be a fine QB2 this season. If Michael Thomas can stay healthy, the offense should open up even more for the Saints and Carr. But the constant threat of Taysom Hill and the running backs cap Carr's ceiling.
Week 16 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Derek Carr threw three touchdowns against the Patriots last week, but he was also sacked three times, threw a pick, and was held to 231 passing yards. Carr has been a tough fantasy quarterback to trust week-to-week this year and has surprisingly only thrown for 300 or more yards twice all season.
This week, Carr has a tough matchup against the Steelers, who rank ninth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, and are getting healthier on defense as the season comes to a close. Expect a tough day for the Las Vegas offense, making Carr a low-end QB2 option in most leagues. Look elsewhere if possible.
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots
Derek Carr really struggled last week against the Rams, completing a mere 55% of his passes for 137 yards and a pair of interceptions. Carr has been disappointing this season. Despite throwing 20 touchdowns, he has only eclipsed 300 passing yards twice and his 62% completion rate is his worst since his second year in the league. Keep Carr on the bench this week in a tough matchup against New England. The Patriots rank fourth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks and we have Carr ranked well outside starting territory for Week 15.
Week 14 at Los Angeles Rams
Derek Carr had 250 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and a pick against the Chargers last week. It was a modest fantasy outing, but a third straight win for the Raiders, who are still within striking distance of a wildcard spot if they can keep landing in the W column.
This week, Carr has a tough matchup against the Rams, who rank seventh in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. However, the Rams are pretty beat up right now and Geno Smith found success against them last week. Carr has a nice floor with the weapons at his disposal, and the Raiders’ defense will struggle to make the game lopsided. That should make him a borderline QB1 option.
Week 13 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Derek Carr threw for 295 yards, three touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions in an overtime victory over the Seahawks last week. Carr hasn’t been a great fantasy option this year, but he hasn’t played poorly. He has four straight games with at least two touchdowns and has 18 scores to seven interceptions on the season, while averaging 248 passing yards per game.
This week, Carr faces an average Los Angeles defense. The Chargers rank 18th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Expect another busy day for Carr, as the Raiders are not likely to keep the Chargers from scoring offensively. Carr is ranked as a fringe QB1 this week.
Week 12 at Seattle Seahawks
Derek Carr had a nice game against the Broncos last week, throwing for 307 yards and a pair of touchdowns and delivering the win. Carr hasn’t lit the world on fire this year, but he’s not exactly bad either. He has 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions and is averaging 243.5 passing yards per game.
Carr has a pretty good matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle ranks 21st in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Also, the Seahawks have been solid offensively, so it could be another game where the Raiders are trailing. Expect pass attempts to be up and for Carr to put together another fringe QB1 game. We have him ranked just outside our top-12 this week.
Week 11 at Denver Broncos
Derek Carr had a respectable 248 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a loss to the Colts last week. Carr hasn’t been bad this year and he’s only thrown five picks, but he hasn’t been particularly good either and the Raiders have struggled on both sides of the ball.
This week, sit Carr in most leagues against a tough Broncos defense that ranks third in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Expect another tough day for the veteran and fantasy managers should look elsewhere outside of deeper 2QB leagues.
Week 10 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Derek Carr rebounded from a dismal game against the Saints in Week 8 with a respectable 259 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a loss to the Jaguars last Sunday. Carr has been underwhelming this season, but is still capable of putting up borderline QB1 numbers in the right matchups.
Carr faces a rapidly deteriorating Colts team with a defense that ranks 20th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Indianapolis looks like their punting on the season, so there may be some upside to trotting Carr back out in your fantasy lineup. We have him ranked as a fringe QB1 option, just outside our top-12, but in streaming territory.
