Week 9 at Kansas City
Davante Adams' nickname should be "The Mailman" because, as a pass-catcher, he delivers no matter the circumstance. Even in his worst two games in 2021, Adams averaged 4.5 catches for 72.5 receiving yards – 9.6 half-PPR points, which is a more than startable fantasy FLEX option. He'll definitely have to "go postal" in this contest, however, if the Packers want to pull off an upset win without quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Kansas City ranks 13th-easiest by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers, so Adams should have a fairly manageable time. Our models project Adams to remain ever-dependable, as a solidly mid-range WR1 in Week 9.
Week 7 vs. Washington Football Team
There's never a bad week to start Davante Adams. The Green Bay Packers' offense flows completely around quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but because of that, it has to flow through star receiver Adams, who is easily a top-five fantasy receiver on the year. His remarkable workload and efficiency are basically unrivaled every week, and even in "bad" weeks like Week 6, he still brings in 10.9 half-PPR points with four catches that averaged 22.3 yards per reception.
Week 7 is another chance for Adams to go off, with the Washington Football Team allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Our models project Adams as the top fantasy receiver yet again this week.
Week 6 at Bears
Do things ever not look promising for Green Bay Packers top receiver Davante Adams? There could be an army of zombies swarming him and I'd still give Adams a 50-50 chance to come down with the ball in the air. The last three weeks have seen Adams top 100 yards receiving and 10 targets in each contest, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't repeat his feat again in Week 6 against an army of Bears – Chicago ones, that is. Adams leads the league in team target share (38.1%) and is top-five in team air yards share (45.6%), a model of both reliability and deep-threat upside. Our models project him as fantasy's WR1 in a matchup with a defense allowing the 11th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to receivers.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
Davante Adams remains one of the best fantasy wide receivers in all formats, every single week. This week he and the Green Bay Packers showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals, who allow the 13th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Adams himself has a solid individual matchup against the Bengals' cornerbacks, too, who allow a high percentage of catches.
Our models project Adams, coming off just a moderately impressive performance, to bounce back as Week 5's fantasy WR1 overall.
Week 4 vs. Steelers
In Week 1, Davante Adams caught five passes and produced 8.3 half-PPR fantasy points. In Week 2, he brought in eight passes and produced 16.1 points. In Week 3, he caught 12 passes and created 25.2 points. At this rate, he'll put up about 32 points on 16 catches this week, right? I joke, but Adams is genuinely a one-man wrecking crew in the Green Bay Packers' receiving game, and a top-tier fantasy option every week.
This week won't be as cushy a matchup as others, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are about average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. That means there's still a great chance for Adams to go off, just like most weeks. He's our overall WR1 in Week 4.
Week 3 at 49ers
Even in an extremely run-heavy game script in Week 2, the Green Bay Packers still made sure to send nine targets the way of top wide receiver Davante Adams. He brought in eight of them for 121 receiving yards and a 16.1 point half-PPR fantasy performance. He remains scoreless on the season for now, but Adams' profile blends a remarkably high target share and impeccable efficiency.
Despite a decrease in passing volume for Green Bay this year, Adams still remains a high-value receiver and should continue to be a top fantasy option this week in a visit to the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are a stingy team versus the run but rank just 14th in schedule-adjusted defense against opposing wide receivers. In addition, San Francisco are three-point favorites, which could lead the Packers to lean on their passing attack more in this contest. The prospect of playing catchup in a close game helps solidify Adams' ranking in our projection models as fantasy's WR2 for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Lions
Davante Adams did not have a prototypical top-tier performance in Week 1, but the leading receiver for the Green Bay Packers does have some positives we can highlight. First and foremost, seven of the team's 23 pre-blowout targets still went Adams' way for a 30.4% target share – a very strong rate. In addition, a 2.1 yards per route run mark is a sign of better things to come when Green Bay is not on the backheel all game.
Week 2 brings a matchup with division rivals the Detroit Lions, in which Vegas lines give the Packers an implied total of 30 points. Our models project Adams to get his contract year back on track with 8.4 catches for 107 yards and one touchdown. That puts him as the top fantasy wide receiver in our projections for the week, and there's no reason to believe otherwise yet.
Week 1 at New Orleans
The Green Bay Packers' Davante Adams comes into the 2021 season as a pending free agent, ready and motivated to continue proving himself as the top receiver in the NFL. Week 1 should be a good start to the building of that resumé, as a date with the about-average New Orleans Saints pass defense is on the cards. Adams projects as the best wide receiver for us this week (take note, Packers), with 8.4 receptions for 105.1 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on his docket. Not a bad way to start the season if you're looking for a big payday.
Fantasy Upside
Since breaking out as a star in 2016, wide receiver Davante Adams has put up three half-PPR fantasy WR1 seasons in five years and been no lower than the WR24 despite playing only 12 games that year. He has averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game in that span – the second-most among the 116 pass-catchers to see 200 or more targets since 2016. No other high-volume wide receiver has earned a target on their routes run more frequently over the last three years than Adams, and his 2020 masterclass was the pinnacle of his fantasy dominance. Among all skill position players with 50 or more targets last season, Adams was targeted the second-most on his routes and posted 0.70 fantasy points per route run – essentially 33% more fantasy-efficient than the next best player.
Fantasy Downside
Adams holds a good-not-great adjusted catch rate (percent of catchable targets caught), which ranks 15th among 39 players to see at least 200 targets since 2018. His game's only other mortal facets are a middling 21st average depth of target (aDOT) and 11th-lowest juke rate (missed and broken tackles per reception) among these same receivers. Perhaps Adams’ team-leading 27.8% team target share since 2018 drops some later in the season if the team is unable to reach an extension with their star wideout and wants to get the rest of the pass-catching corps some experience.
2021 Bottom Line
Adams is the axis around which the Packers’ passing game revolves, and thus is all but locked-in to post his fourth fantasy WR1 campaign in six years in 2021. With star passer Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, expect the NFL’s top passing-game duo to light the league on fire yet again. Our models have Adams as the presumptive WR1, just ahead of Tyreek Hill. He is currently being drafted just behind Hill, as the WR2 and the 12th overall player by ADP. Adams is the perfect target for a fantasy manager stuck on the turn who is looking to pair an elite RB and WR, or as the cornerstone of a Zero RB draft strategy.
Week 17 at Chicago
Adams absolutely annihilated the Tennessee Titans last week as he caught 11-of-12 targets for 142 yards for three touchdowns. Coming off his worst game of the year, Adams followed it up with a truly legendary game in fantasy football as he single-handedly won championships last week. Arguably this season’s fantasy MVP, expect more of the same from Adams this week as he’ll remain an elite WR1 option against Chicago.
