Week 3 at Tennessee Titans
Davante Adams found the end zone last week, but he was held to just two catches and 12 yards. He was targeted seven times, however, and he was dynamite in Week 1. His limited number of catches and yards last week look like just a blip on the radar of what will otherwise be another excellent season.
This week, Adams faces a Titans defense that was absolutely torched by Stefon Diggs on Monday night. Expect a busy day for Adams and a solid WR1 outing in a nice matchup. We have him ranked as an elite fantasy option and he should be active in all leagues.
Week 2 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Davante Adams sure didn’t waste time reconnecting with his former college quarterback, catching 10 balls for 141 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Chargers last week. Adams continues to show why he’s one of – the? – best receivers in the league. He had nearly triple the number of targets – 17 – as the next highest player on the Raiders and should continue to be the primary cog of this offense.
This week, dial Adams up again as the Cardinals allowed five touchdown passes in Week 1. Adams is a must-start regardless of matchup, but in a game with shootout potential against a defense that struggled last week, he’s our number two fantasy option at wide receiver.
Week 1 at Los Angeles Chargers
Davante Adams will don a different uniform for the first time in his career after spending eight years in Green Bay. He’ll be reunited with his college quarterback, as he and Derek Carr played together at Fresno State, but going from Aaron Rodgers to Carr is still concerning for one of the league’s elite receivers. Adams is coming off career-highs in receptions and yards and the Raiders paid a hefty price in both draft compensation and in a massive five-year extension, so expect his new team to make him a focal point of the offense.
Adams faces the Chargers in his first regular season game in a Raiders uniform. Only the Bills and the Eagles ranked higher in aFPA to opposing wide receivers than Los Angeles last season, so it won’t be easy for Adams in his new digs. Still, he’s been one of the best in the game for several years now and is a must-start regardless of matchup. Expect a heavy dose of targets for the veteran and a WR1 fantasy day.
2022 Fantasy Upside
After eight seasons and 73 touchdowns passes in Green Bay, perennial All-Pro Davante Adams joins a Raiders offense with a lot to like. New head coach Josh McDaniels has a history of working with Tom Brady and getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Derek Carr is coming off a career-high 4,804 passing yards, with potentially more volume given the addition of a talent like Adams outside. The Raiders have 189 combined vacated targets at the wide receiver position, so there’s an easy path to volume. Also, Adams is simply one of the best and most talented players in the game. Adams also has familiarity with Carr, as they were a dynamic pair together at Fresno State back in 2012-2013.
2022 Fantasy Downside
There are only two downsides with Adams, but they’re not insignificant. Adams goes from the reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers to Carr at quarterback, so the quality of his targets and his streak of five out of six years with double-digit touchdowns are definitely in jeopardy. The other is health. Adams has missed games in four of his last five seasons and will be 30 in December.
2022 Bottom Line
Ultimately, Adams’ immense talent is worth the risk of taking him as a top-5 fantasy wide receiver. He’s being drafted as the WR4 and going at the back end of the first round in fantasy drafts. He can also be a nice stacking option with the relatively inexpensive Carr in the ninth round. The downsides are definitely concerning, but the Raiders gave up the farm to bring Adams in and to pay him big money, so I would expect they intend to use him prolifically.
Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
"How many reasons are there to love Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams in Week 17? Let me count the ways." – Sonnet 43, William Shakespeare probably.
I don't need to tell you that Adams is a fantasy star in the making this week; he has been one at basically every turn in 2021. Of the 14 games he has played, only three have seen Adams fall short of double-digit half-PPR fantasy points. He has topped 20 fantasy points almost two times as often as he has fallen short of 10. Since Green Bay's bye, Adams has averaged 93 receiving yards and 1.7 touchdowns on 8.7 catches (11 targets). In short: he is good, so play him.
If you want more details, our models project Adams as an elite fantasy football WR1 for the fantasy championships. The opposing Minnesota Vikings allow the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to wide receivers, so there is little-to-no limit to Adams' fantasy upside.
Week 15 at Baltimore Ravens
Wide receiver Davante Adams is having yet another excellent year as the focal point for the Green Bay Packers passing attack, averaging over 17 half-PPR fantasy points per game. He has the second-highest team target share among all wide receivers as well as a top-10 mark in team air yards share.
In Week 15, the dominance should continue. With Adams coming off of his fourth 25-plus fantasy point performance (and second in the last three weeks), he and the Packers will be primed to attack the pass funnel Baltimore Ravens defense. Baltimore allows the ninth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to opposing wide receivers, and with Adams' elite target load, it's no wonder that he is a high-end fantasy WR1 this week, as in almost all weeks.
Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears
In spite of a bundle of nagging maintenance injuries plaguing him in the second half of the NFL season, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams has still performed well. Showing up on the injury report for each of the Packers' last two games with shoulder and ankle concerns, Adams still ended up posting a combined 15 receptions for 219 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
In Week 14, he'll square off with a Chicago Bears secondary allowing a middle-of-the-road 16th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to wide receivers. Unless we hear that his hamstring is something more serious, neither the injury status nor matchup is enough to move Adams out of the elite fantasy WR1 tier for this game.
Week 12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I don't need to tell you to start Davante Adams every week. You know to do that. You have guessed – rightly so – that our models project Adams as a high-end fantasy WR1 this week, just as with most weeks when everything is right in Titletown. Sure, it helps to know that his opponents, the Los Angeles Rams, rank 10th-highest by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers, but you'd be starting him even if they were 10th-lowest. Adams is a matchup-proof game breaker and you love him for that reason.
Instead of railing on about that, here are some fun Davante Adams facts: Adams has put together three games with 25 or more half-PPR fantasy points this season already, but does have three with fewer than 10 half-PPR points. Davante Adams has three straight games against the division rival Minnesota Vikings where he scored at least two touchdowns. He lettered in basketball all four years of high school; that's not a football fact, but it is fun.
So, you know, start Adams in Week 12 if you like winning.
Week 11 at Minnesota Vikings
With one less star demanding touches in the Green Bay Packers' starting lineup for Week 11, we should expect to see even more of the offense siloed in the dependable hands and electric legs of Davante Adams. Adams, who has scored more PPR fantasy points per game in 2021 than even his quarterback is in line to see massive volume while the depth-poor Packers take on the Minnesota Vikings this week.
Minnesota currently ranks seventh-highest in terms of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing wide receivers. That matchup, combined with supernaturally elite target volume, makes Adams the easy overall WR1 for fantasy purposes this week.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks' defense ranks 10th-lowest by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers, which makes things slightly less fun for Green Bay Packers wideout Davante Adams than they should be in Week 10. Still, Adams is averaging 10.9 targets per game, so even a dampened efficiency can't take away his rock-solid floor at the position.
Our models still project Adams as a high-end WR1 for fantasy purposes this week, though his outlook will lose a little more juice if the Packers have to start their backup quarterback again.
