• Justin Jefferson

  • WR
  • , Minnesota Vikings
  • 22
  • 192 lbs
  • 6' 3"
Week 2 Projection
  • Week 2 Projection
  • Dfs Projection
  • $7400
  • 18.21
  • 8
  • $7300
  • 14.72
  • 8
  • $28
  • 14.72
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Scouting report

by Frank Ammirante

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 2 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 @ Cardinals
Jefferson had a modest season debut, catching 5-of-9 targets for 71 yards against the Bengals. It was good to see the second-year superstar wideout put up 124 air yards, leading Adam Thielen by 51. Jefferson remains a WR1 with high upside due to his high volume and big-play ability. You have to love how narrowly distributed the Vikings' target share is among their two stud wideouts.

Jefferson takes on a Cardinals defense that ranked 15th in aFPA to wide receivers last season, but their secondary remains the weakest link on their defense. Starting cornerbacks Robert Alford and Byron Murphy aren't really matchups to fear. The Titans weren't able to exploit this weakness with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones because the team struggled with pass protection. If the Vikings can give Cousins a clean pocket, which is a tough task against Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt, we could see Jefferson get loose downfield.

by Frank Ammirante

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 at Cincinnati Bengals

Justin Jefferson has a chance to hit his weekly ceiling against the Bengals here. This is a defense that ranked 20th in aFPA to wide receivers last season and will be without starting cornerback Trae Waynes for this game. Jefferson had one of the best rookie seasons for a wideout we’ve ever seen, establishing himself as the clear alpha in this offense. From Weeks 3-17, he led the team with a 27.23% target share. We can expect more of the same in his second season.

The risk with Jefferson is the potential game script here. Since the Bengals are also weak against the run and the Vikings are a run-heavy offense, we could see the offense revolve around Dalvin Cook here. This could limit Jefferson’s ceiling in this game. At the same time, Jefferson is a big-play threat who can take it to the endzone on any play, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a run-heavy approach. Fire him the sophomore wideout as a Top-7 option this week.

by Frank Ammirante

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Jefferson caught 88-of-125 targets for 1,400 yards (15.9 Y/R) and seven touchdowns in what was one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons of all time. Jefferson finished as WR9 in half-PPR points per game, which is even more impressive when you consider that 12.5% target share in the first two games of the season. From Weeks 3-17, Jefferson put up a 27.23% target share, which would have ranked 6th in the NFL. This is a superstar wide receiver who has the ability to finish as the WR1 overall. In order for that to happen, he would have to command even more of a target share in Year 2, which is absolutely within reach. He would also need the Vikings' defense to allow for more pass-heavy game scripts. Even if this doesn’t happen, Jefferson should be able to finish in the Top-8 wide receivers.

Fantasy Downside
The downside with Jefferson is that this is a run-heavy offense and Adam Thielen can still command targets, especially due to his symbiotic chemistry with quarterback Kirk Cousins. If the Vikings' defense improves dramatically, this could cause them to become even more run-heavy. This would affect Jefferson’s total targets, which could ultimately prevent him from providing value at his current draft cost. Still, Jefferson put up the best rookie season since Odell Beckham Jr. He’s the best receiver on this team and should be able to command the most targets, which helps mitigate the risk posed by the run-heavy philosophy.

Bottom Line
Jefferson is currently being drafted as WR8 (23.8 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. He has as much upside as any receiver in the NFL. Targets are earned and Jefferson was able to command a 25% target share, which is a huge total for a rookie. Expect this young superstar to evolve into even more of an alpha wide receiver and rank among the league leaders in target share. There’s also untapped touchdown upside here, as Jefferson only scored seven times in his rookie season. Consider him an elite WR1 heading into his second year.

by Richard Mejia

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 17 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 17 at Detroit

Jefferson had a solid last week against the New Orleans Saints as he caught 6-of-10 targets for 85 yards. More impressively, Jefferson did this while be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, indicative of his elite receiver status.

This week, Jefferson will take on the Detroit Lions who rank 30th in aFPA to WRs this season. He caught 3 balls for 64 yards last time out against the Lions, so we have a feeling for his floor looks like this week. With Dalvin Cook expected to miss the game, the Minnesota passing attack will be relied on heavily to keep the offense going. Jefferson will be a WR1 this week.

by Richard Mejia

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 16 at New Orleans

Jefferson had an excellent game last week against the Chicago Bears as he caught 8-of-11 targets for 104 yards. Kirk Cousins had eyes for Jefferson all game long, even out-targeting Adam Thielen 11 to 3. Jefferson also almost had a touchdown late in the fourth quarter but was badly overthrown in the endzone.

Week 16 brings on the New Orleans Saints who rank sixth in aFPA to WRs this season. Jefferson has shown to be impervious to tough matchups and even so, Marshon Lattimore should be preoccupied with Adam Thielen, potentially increasing the targets Jefferson will receive in this one. His historic rookie season has had his fantasy managers in amazement all year and he can be counted on as a high-end WR2 in the fantasy championship game.

by Richard Mejia

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 15 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 15 vs Chicago

Jefferson had a down game last week against the Buccaneers as he caught 4-of-8 targets for 39 yards. Jefferson couldn’t get anything going in this one as the Vikings were only able to find success through the ground against a tough Bucs defense. Kirk Cousins was sacked a season-high six times and didn’t have anywhere near enough time to throw to his top WRs.

Jefferson takes on the Chicago Bears this week, who rank 4th in aFPA to WRs this season. Even with a tough matchup, Jefferson was the Vikings’ leading receiver in Week 10 against the Bears as he caught 8-of-10 targets for 135 yards in an exhilarating Monday Night Football performance. Expect the rookie to continue his impressive campaign and retain his upside WR2 status this week.

by Richard Mejia

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 14 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 14 at Tampa Bay

Justin Jefferson is one of the elite WRs in the NFL, period.

The rookie continues to impress and improve with each passing week and his last game against the Jacksonville Jaguars was no exception as he finished the game catching 9-of-12 targets for 121 yards and one touchdown. This game put Jefferson over the 1,000-yard mark and became only the fifth rookie WR in NFL history to achieve this feat joining the likes of Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston and Odell Beckham Jr. Jefferson’s 1,039 receiving yards are fourth in the NFL and he has a legitimate shot at leading the league in the category by the season’s end.

Jefferson will be taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14 who are ranked 31st in aFPA to WRs this season. A secondary that has been torched in recent weeks by the likes of Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, Jefferson is primed to follow suit and have another monster game in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Count on Jefferson to continue his historic rookie campaign in this one and produce solid WR1 numbers.

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