Jefferson caught 88-of-125 targets for 1,400 yards (15.9 Y/R) and seven touchdowns in what was one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons of all time. Jefferson finished as WR9 in half-PPR points per game, which is even more impressive when you consider that 12.5% target share in the first two games of the season. From Weeks 3-17, Jefferson put up a 27.23% target share, which would have ranked 6th in the NFL. This is a superstar wide receiver who has the ability to finish as the WR1 overall. In order for that to happen, he would have to command even more of a target share in Year 2, which is absolutely within reach. He would also need the Vikings' defense to allow for more pass-heavy game scripts. Even if this doesn’t happen, Jefferson should be able to finish in the Top-8 wide receivers.
The downside with Jefferson is that this is a run-heavy offense and Adam Thielen can still command targets, especially due to his symbiotic chemistry with quarterback Kirk Cousins. If the Vikings' defense improves dramatically, this could cause them to become even more run-heavy. This would affect Jefferson’s total targets, which could ultimately prevent him from providing value at his current draft cost. Still, Jefferson put up the best rookie season since Odell Beckham Jr. He’s the best receiver on this team and should be able to command the most targets, which helps mitigate the risk posed by the run-heavy philosophy.
Jefferson is currently being drafted as WR8 (23.8 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. He has as much upside as any receiver in the NFL. Targets are earned and Jefferson was able to command a 25% target share, which is a huge total for a rookie. Expect this young superstar to evolve into even more of an alpha wide receiver and rank among the league leaders in target share. There’s also untapped touchdown upside here, as Jefferson only scored seven times in his rookie season. Consider him an elite WR1 heading into his second year.