Fantasy Upside
With Dawson Knox off the field last season, Dalton Kincaid averaged 10.7 half-PPR points per game, a mark that would have ranked him top-5 among the position if extrapolated over the entire season. In the four weeks between Week 17 and the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the rookie averaged 6.5 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 69 yards per game. That 20.2% target share was the second-highest on the team over that pivotal stretch. It trailed only Stefon Diggs, who is no longer on the team.
Fantasy Downside
With Dawson Knox —who is returning for 2024— on the field, Kincaid averaged 2.5 fewer targets and over 20 fewer yards than with his teammate sidelined. During his rookie season, he had stretches of lowly results, including the first five games of the season when he failed to top 43 yards receiving and a similar stretch between Weeks 12-16 when he never topped 40.
2024 Bottom Line
The splits with Knox on and off the field seem pretty damning for Kincaid's outlook in 2024, but the overall target competition is far weaker. He is in line for a good amount of touchdown regression after scoring only two of his expected 6.8 scores, and the wide receiver room is littered with names who would only be a third or fourth option on a lot of teams. There's a very real possibility that Kincaid ascends into the top pass-catcher on the Bills, and has top-5 (or better) upside.
