Chalkboard Week 13 Player Prop Bets Article
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Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space below to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
Week 12 Recap
Another week, same type of results. The overall volume was lower, but I still felt great about the plays I put out. Roman Wilson worked ahead of Calvin Austin in Week 11, but things swung back toward Austin this week, and DK left the game multiple times with an injury; Austin ended up closing at 1.5 receptions, heavily juiced to the under. I liked Lockett under 2.5 receptions, but that bet fell apart fast once Michael Mayer went down after only six routes. With Mayer out, Lockett’s playing time spiked. Montgomery over 46.5 rushing yards also looked solid, but the game script killed it — plus Gibbs is simply too good to take off the field.
The two wins were Robinson over 20.5 rushing yards and Stafford over 33.5 pass attempts, which both played out pretty much as expected. Robinson has been effective for San Francisco, and they can’t give all the touches to CMC — he needs breaks, and against Carolina in a likely positive script, Brob saw seven carries. Stafford didn’t face much resistance, but it didn’t matter; the Rams came in wanting to attack Tampa Bay through the air, and they did, finishing with the highest PROE in Week 12.
Week 13 NFL Bets
Rachaad White UNDER 34.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
is back for the Bucs this week, and while Bucky was out, we saw Sean Tucker pass White in the pecking order for RB rush opportunities. I still expect White to maintain some 3rd down/receiving work, but Bucky should cut into some of that as well.
Christian Kirk UNDER 2.5 Receptions
Despite the 5/54/1 receiving line Kirk posted against Buffalo, he only ran 13 routes on 30 dropbacks. Kirk has slowly lost playing time to Higgins, and it could only be a matter of time before the other rookie WR (Noel) eats into Kirk's playing time as well.
NBA Best Bet
Terance Mann UNDER 4.5 Assists
Mann is averaging just 3.7 assists/game this season and is coming off a six-assist performance in last night’s loss to Philadelphia, where he played 36 minutes. On a back-to-back, we could see Mann’s minutes cut a little here, and should see his assist rates close to his season average. For the rest of my NBA props, be sure to join our Discord!
My NBA Results This Season:
- 34-25, +$574
- 8.34% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
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