Week 6 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: LA Teams Charge Forward
Parity in the NFL seems to be more of a thing this season than in recent years, which makes these contests both challenging and fun. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.
Editor’s Note: PoolGenius subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
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Week 5 Recap
After a perfect record in Week 4, my picks faltered a bit last week but to be fair; the two losses were the Packers and Dolphins, who both got beat painfully and unexpectedly. The Buccaneers, 49ers, and Patriots all came through for me, bringing my season total to 15-10.
Let’s move on to Week 6, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 6 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.
However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 6 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk or no additional risk at all.
Favorite Favorites
LA Rams vs. Panthers
Sometimes when a coach gets fired, the team rallies the next week and gets a win. That will not be the case in Week 6 for Carolina when they head west for Sunday afternoon’s contest. The Rams have been struggling so far in 2022, but this should be the perfect get-right situation against whoever will be under center for the Panthers.
LA is a 10.5-point favorite in this one, with PoolGenius and Vegas win odds set at 81%. Public bettors are riding with the Rams 98% of the time so everyone in your pool will be in it together.
LA Chargers vs. Broncos
Sadly, we have to endure another prime-time Broncos game, this time on the road against the Chargers. LA is a five-point favorite in this AFC West contest with 68% odds to win via Vegas. Denver is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, including an already struggling Russell Wilson’s shoulder. Austin Ekeler has been coming on hot in recent weeks and, paired with Justin Herbert, will score enough to keep a Denver team that is averaging 15 points per tilt at bay.
With all these heavy favorites, you’ll win or lose with your pool mates, as 94% of pickers are selecting the Chargers in Week 6.
Sensibly Priced Favorite
San Francisco 49ers @ Falcons
This Kyle Shanahan revenge game has the 49ers as 5.5-point road favorites, with 69% win odds via both Vegas and PoolGenius. San Francisco is dealing with some defensive injuries, but they have enough weapons on offense to beat this struggling Atlanta team mid-rebuild.
The public is backing the 49ers 90% of the time, which is high, but not as high as some other games this week, like the Rams (98%) or the Buccaneers (94%).
Baltimore Ravens @ Giants
The Giants are surprisingly 4-1, but their hot streak ends this week at home against the Ravens. Baltimore will have to rely on Lamar Jackson’s legs with a healthy dose of Mark Andrews, but they should get it done against a depleted receiving corps for New York.
This contest features a spread of five points with 63% PoolGenius win odds. Only 74% of public bettors are currently rolling with the Ravens, which provides some value in the pick over games with similar spreads like the Chargers (94%) and the 49ers (91%).
Upset Gamble
New England Patriots @ Browns
We have another coaching revenge game here, with Bill Belichick heading to Cleveland as a three-point underdog. The Patriots' defense is playing very well and will find a way to contain Nick Chubb and their middling passing game. The Pats have their share of offensive woes, but Rhamondre Stevenson and returning Jakobi Meyers should do enough for the upset here.
New England is currently only getting 42% win odds via Vegas and just 36% of public pickers are taking the Patriots this week, so if there’s an upset, this pick is a valuable one.
Survivor Picks for Week 6
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 6 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- LA Rams vs. Panthers (81%, 10.5-point favorites)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Steelers (77%, 8.5-point favorites)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Jets (75%, 7-point favorites)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cowboys (70%, 6-point favorites)
- San Francisco 49ers @ Falcons (69%, 5.5-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 6 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- LA Rams vs. Panthers (35%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Steelers (28%)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Jets (10%)
- San Francisco 49ers @ Falcons (10%)
- LA Chargers vs. Broncos (6%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 5, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Buffalo Bills (10.2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (6.8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.9)
- Dallas Cowboys (4.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (4.3)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the PoolGenius Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
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