Jared Goff

Goff finished QB7 and QB11 the last two seasons, yet he's going as the QB16 off the board. That's a massive disconnect. He threw for 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns last season with an 82nd percentile EPA per dropback and 71st percentile CPOE—both strong marks for a quarterback in one of the league's best offenses. New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing introduces some uncertainty, but Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and an elite offensive line are all still in place. The concern, as always, is that Goff offers nothing as a runner (3.1 rush yards per start), so he's entirely volume- and touchdown-dependent, and his well-documented home/road splits remain a factor. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game at home versus 15.6 on the road, but that predictability can be useful. The Jared Goff Gambit is once again viable: Draft Goff as your QB1, start him in home games and favorable road matchups, and stream/committee the position during his tougher away games. That approach can produce midrange QB1 numbers at a midrange QB2 price.