DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 14

DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 14

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last update Dec 7, 2017

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Chalk

Without LeVeon Bell or Antonio Brown on the main slate and affordable value at every position, owners are able to pay up for some of the more expensive wide receivers this week, which is why ownership is slanted towards the higher-priced players at the position. Josh Gordon’s price doesn’t reflect his volume last week, so there should be flat ownership among receivers in the WR6–WR20 range.

  • In his first game since 2014, Josh Gordon ($6,700 FD/$5,500 DK) was targeted 11 times, accounting for 34.4% of the Browns targets, the seventh-highest target share of any player last week. In his second act, Gordon will face a Packers defense ranked last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. Over their last six games, Green Bay has allowed four 100-yard receivers and only one team has allowed more receptions of 15+ yards this season. Per PlayerProfiler.com, only 69.9% of DeShone Kizer’s passes have been catchable, the third-lowest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season. 
  • No player on the main slate has seen more targets than DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600/$8,500) this season and he is projected as a top-two value on FanDuel. Only seven teams have thrown at a higher rate in neutral game script situations than Houston over the last six weeks, but only seven teams have allowed fewer receptions to wide receivers than the 49ers and San Francisco has allowed just one 100-yard receiver since Week 5. 
  • Only four players have a higher target share over the last six weeks than A.J. Green ($8,300/$7,300) but his 8.3 targets per game rank 19th in that span. Andy Dalton’s catchable ball rate ranks 24th among Week 14 starters, meaning Green is really only seeing about 6 catchable targets per game. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Chicago ranks 18th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but they’ve allowed just one 100-yard receiver all year and that was in Week 3.
  • After his big game last week, Tyreek Hill ($7,800/$7,100) is expected to be one of the most popular plays on FanDuel this week, where he is projected as a top-three value. Only one team on the main slate has a higher implied point total than the Chiefs (25.75) and Oakland ranks 23rd in wide receiver aFPA. Hill’s 7.1 targets per game rank 33rd in the league, but he’s averaging 9 targets per since Kansas City’s bye. Only seven teams have allowed more receptions of 15+ yards than the Raiders this season, which plays to Hill’s strengths.

Studs

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