Five Prime Fantasy Football Regression Candidates for 2026

Regression is one of those phrases that gets a bad press in fantasy football. It sounds like it’s always a bad thing, but this is simply not true. It means a return to the norm after a spike or dip that came almost out of nowhere, based on previous results. This can be good or bad, depending on the spike or dip. It is something that fantasy managers should be aware of, of course, and should be a factor when constructing fantasy rosters.

With that in mind, here are five players who we should probably not expect a repeat performance from in 2026, based on their 2025 deeds.

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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor was on one to begin the 2025 season. I mean, don’t get me wrong, he finished with pretty good numbers all in all. Taylor rushed for 1,585 yards and scored a whopping 18 touchdowns, matching a career-high, on his way to 20.0 Half-PPR points per game. But he was on course for 1800+ and 21 scores with a healthy Daniel Jones, as well as 23.3 points per game. So it could have been even better.

While Taylor should retain all of the significant work in the Colts backfield, his nose for the end zone might not be as sticky as we would like. Since 2000, 13 players have rushed for at least 18 touchdowns (including Taylor back in 2021). Of those 13, 11 saw their scores decrease the next season, with the average decrease almost 12. Taylor himself saw his 18 touchdowns followed by just four the next season. The two players whose numbers went up were LaDanian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes. Taylor is a special player, but I’m not going to automatically assume that he can mimic the feats of a Hall of Famer and one of the most voracious touchdown scorers of modern times. The Colts clearly still like Taylor a great deal, as evidenced by his bumper new contract. But even they can't expect a repeat showing...can they?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba went bonkers last season. He really did. The former Ohio State Buckeye read that the Seahawks were going to make the whole passing offense out of him, and he decided he was cool with that. Smith-Njigba caught 119 of his 163 targets and posted a league-high 17,93 yards while scoring ten touchdowns. He finished as the WR2 in Half-PPR points per game. It was quite a third-year leap from JSN, and earned him a huge contract extension. In his two previous seasons, he had averaged 6.7 targets per game, 4.8 receptions, and 51.8 yards.

Are we to assume that his 9.6 targets, seven receptions, and 105.5 yards from 2025 are the new norm? Could he fall somewhere in the middle? There is also the fact that for players with at least 1,700 receiving yards this century, the average yardage drop-off the next season is almost 1,000 yards. Will Smith-Njigba bust and flame out in 2026? Probably not, but to expect an exact repeat or even an increase might be dangerous.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert seemed to be on his way out of Philadelphia ahead of the 2025 season. But he stuck around and posted a career year in terms of fantasy production. Goedert finished as the TE5 in Half-PPR points per game, after previously never finishing higher than TE10 in that format. A large reason for his success? A sudden addiction to the end zone. Goedert scored 11 touchdowns in 2025, tied for the most at the tight end position with Trey McBride.

One major difference between the two? McBride’s 11 scores came on 126 receptions. Goedert did his damage on just 60. Goedert had never scored more than five touchdowns in a single season before 2025. With a new offense in Philly, and with A.J. Brown out the door, Goedert might be in line to see an uptick in targets. But to expect double-digit scores again from a player who only had 12 in his previous four seasons seems highly optimistic.

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson endured the worst season of his career in 2025, and it wasn’t even close. One of the most productive starts to an NFL career in history was rudely interrupted as Jefferson battled with some of the worst quarterback play in the entire league. Jefferson was seventh in the entire league with 141 targets, but only 13th in targets per game with 8.3.

For context, Wan’Dale Robinson commanded 8.8. Jefferson also managed a mere two receiving scores on his way to 9.4 Half-PPR points per game. This is an unacceptable situation, and cannot hold. The Vikings offense, assuming it receives league-average quarterback play, must go through Jefferson, and if it does, we should expect him to return to output much closer to the 9.5 targets, 6.4 receptions, 107.5 receiving yards, and 16.2 Half PPR points per game he posted from 2020-2024.

Zay Flowers

The Ravens wide receiver had one of the quietest and least heralded 1,200-yard seasons in NFL history in 2025. Flowers was only 16th among all wide receivers with 118 targets, but finished sixth with 1,211 receiving yards. He was only the WR24 in Half-PPR scoring, however, and a large reason for this was a lack of touchdowns.

Flowers scored just five times in 2025. Of the 52 1,200-yard receivers since 2011, Flowers was tied for the second-fewest scores. The average touchdown tally for this cohort was 9.6. Flowers has received a healthy new contract with the Ravens, and even with a new offensive structure in place, you would assume he remains atop the target totem pole. If he is able to command a similar workload, a few more trips to the end zone should be in his plans for the 2026 season.

The Bottom Line

• The monster seasons for Jonathan Taylor and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are unlikely to be repeated, but that doesn't mean they're going to be busts
• Dallas Goedert may see more receiving work on the whole, but his new endzone habit may not be a permanent affliction
• Justin Jefferson needs to see competent quarterback play and everything should be fine, while Zay Flowers should see the paint more often if his current role remains the status quo