Jake's Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 15: 8-4, +$351

Overall: 60-47, +$605

4.75% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Week 15 Recap

Week 15 marked the third consecutive positive week, and over the past three weeks, we’re up almost 10 units. I felt like we had been running pretty poorly for a while, but it seems like the tide is finally swinging in our favor. Stafford over 33.5 pass attempts was an easy win, and the run out was exactly as I had expected. The game shot out, and Stafford threw 38 times. Allgeier under 1.5 receptions, just like Stafford, went just how I had thought. Allgeier had run really hot in weeks past and caught two balls on only seven routes in both of his last two games; that kind of production is unsustainable on such little usage, and that hypothesis held on TNF.

Allgeier ran only six routes and did not catch a ball, making this as sweat-free a win as possible. Robinson over 21.5 rushing yards was a strong bet, and the CMC Q tag popped up on Saturday as well, which only strengthened the bet. Unfortunately, Robinson had 22 rushing yards and on his final carry lost a yard to finish with 21. Robinson did finish with nine carries, and I’d bet on any player getting nine carries in a game to go over 21.5 rushing yards. It was a brutal beat on Robinson. The last bet I’ll highlight is Michael Wilson over 4.5 receptions. As I mentioned in my write-up when I released Wilson, his role is absolutely absurd right now without Marvin. Wilson had double-digit targets in his fourth straight game without Marvin, and any player getting that kind of usage should not be lined at 4.5 receptions. Here’s to hoping the green trend continues!

Week 16 Bets

Jacoby Brissett OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

Since Week 10, Brissett has dropped back 50+ times in four of the six games, and his fewest drop-backs in that same time frame was last week against the Texans, when the Cardinals could not even sustain drives; he still managed to drop back 43 times and attempt 40 passes. Cardinals games have featured the most combined play volume, and nobody in the entire league is throwing at a higher clip in neutral situations than the Cardinals. It should be another grip it and rip it game for Brissett.

Baker Mayfield UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

Baker has stayed under 32.5 pass attempts in five of the Bucs' seven wins this season, and in a must-win divisional matchup, the Bucs are 3-point road favorites versus the Panthers. Carolina's offense has killed games with its second-to-last ranking PROE and only 27th in combined plays. The last QB to attempt 33+ passes against Carolina was in Week 9, and it was Jordan Love, who the Panthers somehow beat.

Troy Franklin UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-148)

In Week 13, rookie Pat Bryant took over as the WR2 for the Broncos, running 37 routes compared to 32 for Franklin. In Week 14, we saw this gap widen even more, as Bryant ran 29 routes compared to Franklin's 17. Last week, Bryant missed the game with a hamstring injury, and it was Lil'Jordan Humphrey who was in the WR2 role over Franklin. Yesterday, Bryant returned to practice in full, so I am fully expecting him to be good to go for Sunday.

Travis Kelce OVER 4.5 Receptions (+100)

Gardner Minshew came into last week's game on the Chiefs' final drive after Mahomes had gotten hurt, and Minshew targeted Kelce on three of his five pass attempts. I expect Minshew and the Chiefs' offense to feed Kelce often going forward, and especially with Rice missing back-to-back practices with a concussion. I assume he will also be out, but with the concussion protocol malarkey these days, who knows? Also, I am not much of a narrative guy, but it looks likely that this is Kelce's final three games of his career. Why not send him out with a bang and get him 203 yards in the next three games for a 1k season?

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