Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan

Halloween lights the Apex as UFC Vegas 123 delivers a slate stacked with high-stakes action and razor-thin betting margins. In the lightweight main event, battle-tested Renato Moicano defends his rank against explosive striker Tom Nolan in a classic youth versus experience clash with major division momentum on the line. The co-main event showcases an explosive welterweight collision between dominant wrestler Jacobe Smith and lanky technician Randy Brown, offering prime finishing upside for Daily Fantasy rosters.

With heavy finishing threats like Zach Reese anchoring the top-tier salary range and thin value options forcing tight roster decisions, sweeping this slate demands precise leverage. Whether you are hunting high-upside targets or sharp underdog moneyline value, here is your definitive blueprint to conquer the sportsbooks and DFS leaderboards.

Best Bets for UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan

Jacobe Smith to win by TKO/KO (+145, FanDuel)

Smith's path is simple and violent: overwhelming early finishing pressure through wrestling and ground-and-pound before Brown can establish range or rhythm. His 9.33 TD/15 and perfect takedown defense mean he can force clinch exchanges, drag Brown to the canvas, and hunt the finish with the same layered offense that produced back-to-back TKO victories in his last two outings. The second round is his statistical kill zone, where opponents begin to break under the cumulative pressure but before his own cardio limitations surface. If Brown survives into round three, Smith must trust his youth advantage and maintain output discipline, but his 2% decision rate suggests he either finishes or fades. The most likely path is a TKO via ground strikes in round two, with a submission in round one as the secondary route if Brown overcommits defensively.

Brown is 36 years old with three knockout losses on his ledger and has dropped two straight, including a second-round TKO that exposed crumbling defensive structure under sustained pressure. His 75% takedown defense is solid on paper but collapses against high-volume wrestlers, and Smith's 9.33 TD/15 rate is precisely the archetype that has historically overwhelmed him. Brown's 46% finish rate means he rarely puts opponents away even when ahead, so his decision-reliant blueprint requires surviving into deep water where his durability is no longer reliable. The recent TKO loss in his last outing suggests his body is no longer absorbing punishment the way it did earlier in his career, and Smith's forward aggression targets exactly that structural weakness in the opening 10 minutes.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDual to win 2.45 units.

Lucia Szabova + Zach Reese to win (-213, FanDuel)

Fight Breakdown: Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa

Tainara Lisboa brings high-volume grappling and a willingness to grind, but her durability and recent finishes against her tell a story of structural vulnerabilities under fire. Lucia Szabova enters as an undefeated prospect, with a 75% finish rate across her career and zero knockout losses on record, suggesting she can impose both striking and submission pressure without the attrition baggage Lisboa carries. The pivotal battleground will be whether Lisboa can survive early fire and drag this into deep-water scrambles, or whether Szabova's cleaner finishing tools find the stoppage before the veteran's cardio and wrestling volume can accumulate.

Szabova's ideal script is to impose finishing pressure early and often, exploiting Lisboa's one knockout loss and recent submission defeat to press the action before the veteran can settle into her rhythm. She holds nearly equal submission and knockout threat in the sim's finish distribution, suggesting she can adapt her finish path depending on where openings appear, whether on the feet or in scrambles. Her zero-knockout-loss durability and spotless recent form indicate she can absorb Lisboa's grappling attempts without panic and counter with sharper positional transitions or striking bursts that Lisboa's defense has struggled to handle. The largest edge sits in rounds one and two, where her power and submission acumen can capitalize on Lisboa's tentative entries; if she forces Lisboa to respect her finishing tools, the takedown volume dries up and Szabova controls range and pace. A knockout or submission before the final bell is her highest-probability outcome, and even a decision would likely come off dominant positional control rather than the gritty survival Lisboa needs.

Fight Breakdown: Zach Reese vs Micky Gall

Zach Reese brings aggressive wrestling volume and opportunistic finishing instincts against Mickey Gall, a fading grappler whose recent form has cratered under pressure. The tension lies in whether Reese can impose his pace and chain offense early, or whether Gall's experience can stall momentum long enough to exploit cardio or defensive gaps in the later frames. This is a race between Reese's finish-hunting urgency and Gall's need to survive into deep water where durability questions loom for both.

Reese needs to press the wrestling early and often, using his significant volume edge to control position and hunt submissions or ground-and-pound finishes. His path runs through the first two rounds, where fresh athleticism and offensive output overwhelm a fading opponent before his own cardio or defensive holes come into play. Reese's 44% knockout rate and 20% submission rate in the sim suggest he should layer strikes into wrestling transitions rather than stand and trade, keeping Gall reactive and unable to establish his own grappling rhythm. The finish is more likely than the decision (65% combined finish rate in sim output), and the script tilts heavily toward a round-two stoppage if Gall's structure cracks under sustained pressure.

Risk: 3 units on FanDual to win 4.41 units.

Cody Durden vs Ode Osbourne under 2.5 rounds (-138, FanDuel)

Durden's 57% takedown defense and recent submission loss expose a structural vulnerability when roles reverse, and he's forced to defend. His aggressive wrestling volume opens windows for Osbourne to threaten guillotines, arm-drags, or sweeps, and if Durden overcommits on a single-leg without securing position, a scramble can flip the entire round. The last three fights show two decision losses and one submission defeat, a pattern that suggests Durden struggles to impose his game against opponents who can neutralize entries or threaten off their back. If Osbourne sprawls successfully in round one and forces Durden to stand longer than planned, the cardio and confidence can crack, leaving Durden exposed to counter sequences in the second half. The tell is whether Durden completes his first two takedown attempts cleanly; hesitation or failed shots invite Osbourne's most dangerous phase.

Osbourne's two recent decision losses and the fact that his finish rate sits at 50% paint a finish-or-fade profile clearly. His striking differential is negative, his takedown defense is middling, and his last three outings show he can't sustain offensive output across fifteen minutes against opponents who pressure him with volume. If Durden survives the early striking exchanges and begins layering takedowns in round two, Osbourne's burst will drain, and he'll resort to reactive defense rather than offensive counters, ceding positional minutes and round-scoring opportunities. The risk compounds with age: at 35.6 years old with two knockout losses on the ledger, the margins for late-round comebacks narrow with every grappling exchange. Watch for whether Osbourne maintains kick volume and scramble aggression past the eight-minute mark; if he stops threatening finishes and starts surviving, the decision path closes, and Durden's volume becomes insurmountable.

Our simulation has the average fight time at 8.7 minutes over 10,000 simulations. These fighters have combined for 12 of their 16 UFC losses coming by way of finish.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.72 units.

Joe Kropschot to win via TKO/KO (+380, DraftKings)

Klein has been stopped via TKO in back-to-back outings, both times absorbing sustained punishment that suggests a compromised ability to weather clean power or accumulated volume. His 67% takedown defense is a structural liability against a patient striker, and if Kropschot stuffs the early attempts and begins landing clean counters, Klein's path collapses entirely. The model assigns him only 16.6% KO probability but a narrow 4.5% decision path, implying that unless he dominates on the mat, the durability cracks will resurface under sustained pressure. Klein's finish-or-fade profile is real; he has never won in the UFC. If Kropschot forces him into extended standup exchanges or reverses position in scrambles, the same defensive holes that led to two straight stoppages will reappear, likely in round two when fatigue meets accumulation.

Risk: 0.25 unit on DraftKings to win 1.2 units.

DFS Cash Game Plays for UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights gives us more scoring upside, and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling-heavy fighters with takedowns and control time, which are heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Zach Reese $9100 - Reese's DFS profile is a high-ceiling, moderate-floor leverage play where his 65% combined finish rate and dominant wrestling volume create massive scoring upside if he secures an early stoppage. His striking differential (+0.53 strikes per minute) is modest, so his floor in a decision is lower than elite grinders, but his takedown volume (4.74 per 15 minutes) and 20% submission rate suggest he can rack up control time and grappling points even if the finish eludes him. His ceiling script is a round-two submission or ground-and-pound TKO after sustained top control, and that path delivers 100+ DraftKings points if it hits.

Midrange Plays ($8100 - $8900)

Jacobe Smith $8800 - Smith is a cash-game anchor with elite floor and massive ceiling upside, priced as a heavy favorite but with finish equity (66% ITD rate) that justifies the salary. His 6.88 SLpM and 9.33 TD/15 create baseline volume scoring even if the finish is delayed, and his recent three-fight TKO/SUB streak suggests the ceiling path is a second-round stoppage that delivers 100-plus points. The 2% decision rate is the only floor concern, but his youth, perfect takedown defense, and aggressive pace mean even a decision would likely bank enough volume to justify salary in cash games. Pair him with mid-tier value plays elsewhere on the card to absorb his salary weight, and treat him as a safe foundation piece. The ceiling path is a round-two ground-and-pound TKO that maxes out bonus scoring while keeping ownership manageable in tournaments.

Rodrigo Sezinando $8500 - Sezinando's salary tier and 6.33 takedowns per 15 minutes profile him as a grappling-volume floor play with early-finish upside in the 21.4% knockout and 13.4% submission bands, making him viable in both cash games and GPP builds if the ownership stays reasonable. His DraftKings scoring ceiling lives in a round-two submission or ground-and-pound finish after sustained top control, where takedown points, significant strikes from top, and the early-finish bonus converge into a 95-plus ceiling. The floor is safer than Berggren's because even in a losing decision he can bank 50-plus points on takedown volume alone, assuming his cardio holds and Berggren doesn't shut down every entry. The projection efficiency depends entirely on whether you believe the wrestling pace is real or a small-sample mirage: if it's real, he's a salary anchor; if Berggren's 100% takedown defense translates, Sezinando becomes a contrarian trap. Pair him with high-ceiling finishers elsewhere on the slate to hedge the decision-floor risk, and roster him as your stable scorer rather than your ceiling spike.

Value Plays ($8000 and Below)

Renato Moicano $8000 - Moicano's DraftKings profile is a high-ceiling, volatile proposition anchored by his 20.74% submission rate and the five-round runway that inflates grappling-point accumulation. If he secures multiple takedowns, racks up control time, and finishes via submission in rounds two or three, he smashes his projection with a ceiling north of 120 points thanks to the 90-point finish bonus and volume scoring. The risk is his decision path, 12.79% projected rate, offers a middling floor if he can't impose grappling and instead stands and trades, where his 4.1 strikes-per-minute pace lags Nolan's. The finish path most likely to deliver ceiling is a second-round submission off a scramble or transition.

Cody Durden $7900 - Durden presents as a volume-floor cash anchor with limited ceiling unless he submits Osbourne late. His 7.68 takedown attempts and the simulation's decision probability suggest he'll post steady grappling minutes and significant strikes even in a loss, providing a baseline around 75-80 DraftKings points without a stoppage. His salary reflects underdog pricing, so cash-game leverage depends on whether his floor justifies the cost. His ceiling path runs through a late submission or a dominant decision with 10-plus minutes of control time, but the 40% finish rate tempers true upside. Treat him as a floor play in cash at his salary, and fade him in tournaments if you're betting on Osbourne's early-finish variance.

Julian Erosa $7600 - His salary tier positions him as a high-risk ceiling play whose utility hinges entirely on early submission or accumulated-volume scoring through two-plus rounds of dominance. Erosa's 6.06 striking rate and 2.55 takedowns per fifteen minutes offer baseline scoring avenues, but his 10.58% submission rate in the sim and fragile durability create a narrow path to 100+ point payoffs.

Cash Game Lineup ($49,900)

Zach Reese $9100

Jacobe Smith $8800

Rodrigo Sezinando $8500

Renato Moicano $8000

Cody Durden $7900

Julian Erosa $7600

Analysis: Reese and Smith anchor this lineup with wrestling and striking advantages that should lead to finishes. Sezinando and Durden are both canny but offer grappling upside through wrestling that should convert to solid scoring. Moicano and Erosa offer volatility but solid scoring upside via finish.

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