Are Things Looking Up for Josh Downs in 2025?

In his two seasons since the Colts drafted him in the third round, Josh Downs has caught passes from three different passers, none of whom have earned the title of "franchise quarterback" in Indy. As he enters year three, there are still questions at QB, but Downs has flashed enough potential to draw fantasy attention regardless. Can we expect a breakout in 2025, or will it be another year of capped upside?

Let's find out.

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Ups and Downs

Right off the bat, Downs saw 98 targets as a rookie and 107 targets in year two (in just 14 games). He's accounted for a 19.7% target share over that span, well behind Michael Pittman Jr.'s monster 25.7%, but very solid for a WR2, especially in his first two seasons. He's also caught 68.3% of those targets, which is especially impressive when you consider the quality of said targets. Only one team has thrown catchable passes at a lower rate than the Colts (73%) since 2023, and it's the Browns (72.4%). Not a glowing review. And, as noted in the intro, it's been a mess of quarterbacks: Anthony Richardson has been in and out of the lineup, with Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco "stepping up" in his absences (or benchings).

In total, Downs has seen 55 Richardson targets in 12 games, resulting in 32 catches, 475 yards, and three touchdowns. While the per-target efficiency is decent — likely because Richardson throws downfield so much — the lack of volume has capped Downs in fantasy over those stretches. Meanwhile, with Minshew or Flacco under center, Downs has totaled 150 targets in 23 games, resulting in 108 receptions, 1,099 yards, and four touchdowns. That's roughly a 42% increase in targets and a 76% increase in receptions per game.

And the numbers look even better if you look at Downs just last year, with Flacco. He saw 65 targets in just seven games (some of which weren't even full Flacco games), totaling 49 receptions, 454 yards, and two touchdowns. Had he seen a full 17-game season of those numbers, Downs would have paced for roughly 158 targets, 119 catches, 1,102 yards, and five touchdowns. Downs was legitimately the WR6 in PPR over the eight-game span from Weeks 4-11 (nearly half a season), ahead of Terry McLaurin and Brian Thomas Jr., among others.

The Quarterback Conundrum

So, what can we expect from the Indy quarterback room in 2025? If Richardson beats out the newly signed Daniel Jones, one would assume he's improved somewhat from his first couple of years of historically poor accuracy. Not that doing is a particularly impressive feat. Richardson's completion percentage over his first two seasons is the second-worst by a qualified QB over the last two decades, behind only Tim Tebow. Still, a slightly more effective Richardson, and one who won a legitimate QB battle in camp, might be promising for Downs heading into year three.

If Richardson fails to seize the starting job — the outcome I see as more likely — Downs will be fielding targets from Daniel Jones. While Jones left New York with an abysmal .355 winning percentage, he also posted an "NFL-worthy" 64.1 completion percentage and averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game, nearly 10 more than Richardson's 23.2. For further context, if Downs were to maintain a 20% target share, the difference between Richardson and Jones — at least historically — is the difference between 6.4 targets per game and 4.6 targets per game ... or the difference between 110 and 80 targets over a full season. Bake in the gap in career completion percentage, and you might be looking at a difference of 30 catches over 17 games.

Either way, we're not likely to get Flacco 2: Electric Boogalo in Indianapolis this year, so we're not projecting Downs for triple-digit catches by any means. But that doesn't mean he couldn't have a breakout year and be a fantasy value in this offense.

Expectations for Indy's Offense

The Colts are arguably the most difficult offense to predict or project for 2025. Other teams have unsettled quarterback situations — the Giants, the Saints — but the differences in schemes and strategies aren't as stark for other teams as they are for Indy, pending their starting QB. In the 13 games Richardson has started and played the majority of offensive snaps (which cuts out three games he's left early due to injury), the Colts have thrown on a miniscule 46.4% of their offensive plays. For perspective, the team with the lowest pass rate over these last two years — the Ravens — throw at a 48.6% rate. The Richardson-led Colts have basically been playing rugby. In their other 21 games, they've thrown on 53.6% of plays, still below league-average, but reasonable (would rank eighth-lowest in the league since 2023).

Whether Richardson or Jones wins the job, I expect Downs to see a similar target share, maybe even boosted slightly entering year three, with Pittman remaining the alpha in the passing game (if healthy) and rookie tight end Tyler Warren earning significant looks as well. Considering Downs is currently being drafted as the WR47 on Underdog, at the back of the seventh round, that volume expectation seems to pervade the fantasy community as a whole — in fact, he's currently being drafted ahead of Pittman (WR50), who tweaked his groin in practice this week.

Whether Downs ends up being an unexciting FLEX play or a breakout PPR star might depend entirely on the quarterback play, but until we know who it is and how he looks in 2025, I'd be willing to take some shots on Downs for the upside he flashed last season.

The Bottom Line

• Josh Downs is a target magnet whose upside has been severely capped by offense and QB play for most of his two-year career.
• In an eight-game stretch in the middle of 2024, which was quarterbacked almost entirely by Joe Flacco, Downs was the WR6 in PPR, averaging nearly 10 targets a game. That high of a ceiling may be hard to reach with Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, but it highlights how productive Downs can be in the right situation.
• According to Underdog ADP, Downs is being drafted as the WR47 at 83rd overall, at the end of the seventh round, and currently just ahead of teammate Michael Pittman Jr. Pending the competence of the Colts' QB and offense, Downs should crack that range based on volume alone, and has the upside for much more if the Indy passing game improves.