2025 Fantasy Football Rankings Breakdown: Quarterbacks

Our initial 2025 projections have been released, so it’s time to go position-by-position and briefly explain what I’m seeing in the projections as the draft season starts to take shape.

More Rankings Breakdowns: RB | WR | TE

The Top 4

It appears there is quite a bit of depth at the quarterback position again this season, but there are two elite tiers. The first consists of Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts.

Jayden Daniels was my primary target at the quarterback position last season, and he paid off in a big way, finishing QB4 after being drafted in the QB10-QB12 range all summer. This year, he’ll have another weapon to throw to thanks to the Commanders’ trade for Deebo Samuel. The Commanders also drafted Jaylin Lane in the fourth round to shore up the WR depth. Small concern: There is a trend among “good” rookie quarterbacks who take a step back in year two, and C.J. Stroud was the latest example.

The Next 2

I could have called this elite group “Top 6,” but there is a bit of a projections fall-off from Hurts to Joe Burrow (21 points), though I don’t see a big difference between the two players.

Baker Mayfield rounds out the Top 6, which is not something I ever thought I’d be saying after his career began to go sideways in his fourth season. But he has finished QB5 and QB9 the last two seasons, has one of the best receiving corps–Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton–in the league, and he can run a little bit (378 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns last season). My only concern is that he’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years, but new OC Josh Grizzard was promoted from within and was the pass game coordinator last season. Mayfield should post midrange QB1 numbers once again.

The Next 12

In last year’s edition of this article, I mentioned “The Next 11” and ultimately highlighted Jayden Daniels (2024’s QB4) and Jared Goff (QB7) as the two best values in that range. They both obviously paid off. Let’s see who pops this year between my QB7 (Bo Nix) and my QB18 (C.J. Stroud).

Every fantasy discussion about Jared Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons, he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.

I thought Bo Nix would be a bigger value heading into 2025 fantasy drafts, but our multi-site ADP has him as the QB8 off the board, so my QB7 ranking doesn’t seem high at all. Nix finished QB9 on the season, but after a rough start, he was the fantasy QB5 from Week 5 on. He has dual-threat ability and scored at least 16.1 fantasy points in 10 of his last 13 games. Again, “good” rookie quarterbacks tend to regress a bit in year two, but the Broncos added Evan Engram in free agency and two receiving weapons–second-round RB RJ Harvey and third-round WR Pat Bryant–in the Draft, and that could offset a sophomore regression.

One of the best values in this range appears to be Justin Fields. Somewhat limited as a passer, Fields still projects to be a solid fantasy quarterback provided he can hold onto the starting job in New York. In six starts for the Steelers, Fields was the fantasy QB6 before Russell Wilson was installed as the rest-of-season starter. In those six starts, Fields threw five touchdowns and rushed for 289 yards and another five scores. That rushing upside makes him a dangerous fantasy asset. As the Bears' starter from 2022 to 2023 (28 starts), Fields racked up the ninth-most fantasy points with the seventh-highest per-game average, so he's done it before. He'll be ranked as a low-end fantasy QB1 as long as he's projected to start for the Jets.

Call me a homer, but Jordan Love is a value as the QB17 off the board. He was the fantasy QB17 last year, and quarterback is deep, so I get the ADP, but he dealt with multiple injuries and still was QB13 on a per-game basis after finishing as the fantasy QB5 in 2023. Sure, the Packers are more run-heavy with Josh Jacobs in the offense, but the Packers drafted two receivers in the first three rounds, and that signals an emphasis on improving the passing game in 2025. Considering he was already the QB13 on a per-game basis last season, if he can improve from there and perhaps get back to his top-five production, he would be a massive value at his current ADP.

The Late Rounds

In 2023, five of the quarterbacks who finished in the top 13 were drafted QB20 or later.

Last year, three quarterbacks drafted QB20 or later finished in the top 12: Baker Mayfield (QB21), Sam Darnold (QB31), and Bo Nix (QB23). They had a couple of things in common: 1) a strong offensive mind calling the plays, and 2) they can score fantasy points with their legs.

Darnold (QB27) can run, but Klint Kubiak is not a certified offensive genius like, say, Kevin O’Connell, who coaxed a QB8 finish out of Darnold last season. That’s why I like QB21 J.J. McCarthy to outproduce his draft position. I could have put McCarthy in “The Next 12” since he’s right there with C.J. Stroud in terms of projected production. It’s pretty simple: In O’Connell we trust. McCarthy will run a bit and has a nice group of weapons, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.

Anthony Richardson (QB28) is certainly a threat for QB1-type numbers if he’s able to beat out Daniel Jones for the starting job and stay healthy. In the 12 career games where he’s played at least 90% of the snaps, he has averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game, which equates to low-end QB1 numbers. That includes 48 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game as a runner. Any improvement as a thrower will be gravy. The Colts have a good young group of receivers and added a top rookie tight end, Tyler Warren, to the mix.