Monotone's Week 2 Best Bets: Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets

Welcome back to the second edition of my weekly NFL player prop article. Week 2 is always one of my favorite betting weeks because we get to test our own interpretations of the game against the sportsbooks. After taking a close look at the board, here are my favorite value plays for the Week 2 slate.

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Week 1 NFL Prop Bets

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Gabe Davis o18.5 Longest Reception -113

While I also like regular receiving yards at 34.5, I see more value on his longest receptions considering all three of his Week 1 catches would have cashed this longest reception number by themselves! Gabe Davis has been one of my favorite best ball acquisitions all summer, and I look forward to continuing to bet on what he does best this week.

Per PFF, the league average for separation percentage was 55%. Gabe Davis finished Week 1 third at 87.5%. I loved seeing some more creative over the middle usage against the Dolphins and would expect that to continue against Cleveland. His usage was also fantastic, while Christian Kirk is still exiting the field on 2WR sets, Davis led all JAX WRs in snaps, routes, and yards last week.

Davis also looked to be playing the same downfield role (15+ ADOT) he occupied for so long in Buffalo, posting a 16 ADOT as well as leading all Week 1 receivers in average depth of route to start the season. While CLE is a strong defense, we saw them allow three separate receivers to clear 18+ yard receptions last week with Ceede Lamb (34), Brandin Cooks (21), and Jalen Brooks (18). Last season, they allowed the 7th most receiving plays of 20+ yards & the 8th most from 20-49 yards, despite also being an elite defense. That’s what happens when you have that much trust in your corners in man coverage, and I think Davis can break one here (like he’s done his whole career).

1.13u to win 1u - playable to 19.5 -120

Devonta Smith o4.5 REC -140

For the purposes of player prop betting, the addition of Kellen Moore to the Eagles coaching staff is going to be very fun. Over the last couple of years, offenses he’s led have hyperfocused on the slot receiver, where guys like CeeDee Lamb and Keenan Allen absolutely feasted over the middle of the field. Over the course of his career, Smith has posted a 1.65 yards per route run on the outside versus a much improved 2.48 yards per route run in the slot. In Week 1, Smith ran 54% of his routes in the slot as opposed to the 22.9% he ran last year, continuing his elite usage by playing on 100% of QB dropbacks.

We saw this immediately produce some impressive results, posting seven receptions for 84 yards on eight targets. Smith has simply been dominant in the slot, and with his new role looking promising, he should be able to eat up this weaker Falcons interior. His ADOT dropped from 12.6 to 8.0, leading to some higher percentage targets. I think we will see this trend continue, and he will be a big part of the plan to limit Hurts' struggle against pressure. Additionally, AJ Terrell will most likely be with AJ Brown on the outside, leaving Smith with the better corner matchups between the two high-end receivers.

Risk 1.4u to win 1u playable to -155

Alvin Kamara o4.5 receptions -105

Alvin Kamara hit this number in his first game of the season despite a terrible game script for it with a blowout and Derek Carr only attempting 23 passes. Carr targeted RBs at the 4th highest rate last year (22%) and via PFF Alvin Kamara was the most targeted RB in football when the quarterback was blitzed, which makes a lot of sense because Derek Carr has some of the most drastic splits under pressure. Since the start of 2023, he moves from 5th in QBR not under pressure to 28th when under pressure.

Both his receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are great downfield separators but aren’t great in the short/intermediate. Despite all the new motion and play action in this offense Carr just won’t have time to get it down the field. They ran the most 2WR sets in the NFL last week and Juwan Johnson is really the only short-yardage check-down option, but he’s a liability as a blocker and I’m expecting him to be out-snapped by Foster Moreau again. According to Next Gen Stats, Deshaun Watson was pressured on an insane 44.6 percent of his dropbacks last week, which resulted in a career-high 6 receptions from Jerome Ford (+2 for strong). I’m expecting Micah Parsons and Mike Zimmer to make life difficult against Carr & Kamara profiles as the clear beneficiary with him needing to get the ball out quickly.

Risk 1.05u to win 1u (-105 ESPN/MGM, -118 FD, -120 DK/CZR) playable to -140

Najee Harris o14.5 Rush Attempts -109

There are not gonna be very many chances for the Steelers to be 3-point favorites this season, meaning this is one of the rare chances where we don’t really have to worry about our RB getting gamescripted out.

The Broncos, championed by Bo Nix and his 3.3 yards per pass attempt, are looking like one of the worst offenses in football. Expecting an ugly game where the Steelers will have plenty of opportunities to grind the clock. Additionally, Jaylen Warren didn’t look to be 100%, and was barely involved coming off his preseason hamstring injury where he was out-carried 20-2. Another year, another Arthur Smith-led team finishing last in PROE.

The Broncos rush defense struggled last season ranking 30th in rushing yards per game, and didn’t look much better this year getting gashed on the ground by Kenneth Walker for 5.3 YPC on 20 carries. Denver also has Patrick Surtain for George Pickens, the Steelers only passing game weapon. Expecting them to lean on Najee and Justin Fields on the ground in this one.

Risk 1.09u to win 1u (-109 CZR, -115 DK/365) would play to o15.5 -115

Malik Willis under 174.5 passing yards -115 DK

Joint play with Connor and Noonan. Willis has started three games, never topping 100 passing yards. Combined he has completed 25-of-49 attempts(51%) for just 234 passing yards (78.0 yards a game) 0 TD 3 Int through the air. We’re talking about guys like Justin Fields consistently lined in the 150’s last year, Bo Nix is currently in the 160’s… you’re telling me the worst quarterback in the NFL by EPA per play (and my eyeballs) should be at a higher number?

One of the more overlooked aspects of this is the fact that he was just traded to the Packers two weeks ago, so even if he has made some improvement it’s very unlikely he is familiar enough with the playbook to actually show that off. The Colts were thrashed on the ground for 215 total yards last week, mostly by Mixon. There is no way this team doesn’t live and die on Josh Jacobs and the ground game.

Available CZRS, MGM, B365 1.15u to win 1u. I would play to u162.5 and played an ALT under of u145.5 +215 on DK .25u

Rachaad White o3.5 receptions -115

Love backing the Buccaneers' passing attack against an absolutely stout Detriot rushing defense. Not only were the Lions huge pass funnels last season, but they added to the unit with DJ Reader. Reader has been one of the best run stuffers in football and makes this unit that much scarier.

Rachaad White hit this number in a worse game script last week, where he had 6 catches for 75 yards. I’m expecting them to be trailing in this one and forced to pass a lot more than last week. With new OC Liam Coen I expect them to ditch the run sooner rather than later and we see TB use the short passing game as an extension of the rushing game.

1.15u to win 1u (DK/365/MGM/C) would play to -135

Chig Okonkwo U2.5 receptions -109

Released with Connor & Noonan. The 4for4 staff chat was all over this one… looks like we can’t resist an under on a TE stuck in a timeshare entering an absolutely disgusting matchup. Okonkwo only had a 55% route participation last week and saw just 2 targets, catching both including a ridiculous touchdown snag. I’m not sure he sees 3 targets and this week is a tough matchup for Levis and company. I expect the Titans to focus on the ground game with Pollard and Spears and try to limit pass volume as much as possible. Another positive note was seeing Deandre Hopkins would likely be playing more this week. With balancing Hopkins, Ridley, Boyd, and the rushing game we just don't see enough to go around for Chig.

Risk 0.54u to win 0.5u (-109 czrs, -110 dk, mgm) would play to -135

Mack Hollins over 17.5 receiving yards -114

In Week 1, Mack Hollins may have surprised some people by running 20 routes to Shakir's 21 and Coleman's 27. While he may not have all the name value or sexy off-season ADP, he is clearly in the mix as a starter. On a short week, I don't expect much change with the Bills' offensive philosophy, and this Dolphins matchup has the potential to be even better based on the battles we saw between these teams last year.

In an offense where your main target competition is Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, I don't think Hollins should be less than half of the receiving yards totals his teammates possess. Beyond being known for his run-first identity, Joe Brady has been big on spreading the ball around and getting all his targets involved. While he may lose a couple of snaps to an MVS go-route or Curtis Samuel screen, his blocking makes him a valuable part of this room, and should see enough routes to justify a line in the low twenties.

Last season, Josh Allen threw the ball 38 times against the Dolphins even when Joe Brady took over as OC, so even though they went run-heavy against the Cardinals, we could see a much more high-scoring game with more passing on both sides here. Over the past couple of seasons, I’ve enjoyed betting on Hollins because of his downfield 50/50 ball usage, and I think he could cash this for us on one play.

1.14u to win 1u - playable to 20.5