Week 11 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Week 10 was a strange one. We won a few plays we probably should have lost and lost a few plays we probably should have won. Part of my weekly process is going through plays I made, deciding if the actual reasoning held up, and understanding whether I need to adjust anything. I obviously won’t make any major adjustments based on one week of results, but on a player-basis and more specific analysis, it’s important to grasp which parts of the handicap were correct. Enough macro-betting talk; let’s dive into the results.

Week 10 Recap (4-4, -1.10 units)

• Lamar Jackson U51.5 rushing Yards
• Sam Darnold U31.5 pass attempts
• Tim Patrick U 22.5 receiving yards
• Kendrick Bourne U2.5 receptions
• Cooper Rush U20.5 completions
• Courtland Sutton U50.5 receiving yards
• Tyreek Hill O 74.5 receiving yards
• Christian McCaffrey U14.5 carries
• Calvin Ridley U4.5 receptions

I was in attendance this weekend at the Bears-Patriots game. Outside of it being the worst professional sporting event I have ever attended, it really pissed me off not seeing Kendrick Bourne play a snap. After playing over 70% last week, I speculated he might see less usage this week based on coachspeak and other factors. He didn’t play a single snap and was just standing on the sidelines with his helmet on, bouncing around, getting pumped up for his teammates. Great guy, good teammate, but apparently doesn’t respect coin. Jokes aside, that actually sucked.

Tim Patrick was a sweat-free winner, and Cooper Rush was benched, like we speculated was possible. I got very lucky on CMC’s under because he saw nearly all of the RB carries in his first game back; the Niners were just trailing for a good portion of the game. Calvin Ridley busted his under on the Titans' last offensive play, which really stung. It took 9 targets for him to get there as he strung together his most efficient day with Will Levis at QB this season. Sam Darnold and the Vikings surprisingly struggled for a large majority of the game, forcing a season-high in pass attempts.

What frustrated me most about last week was I had multiple plays I had written down as possible plays and never bet or released. All of them won, of course. Anyways, time to get back on track for Week 11!

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Week 11 Player Prop Bets

Jameson Williams over 44.5 receiving yards (-115 at DK)

Dan Campbell wasn't lying when he said that Jameson would just be thrown back into the lineup. He ran a route on 80% of dropbacks and saw over a 20% target share. He now gets a great matchup against the Jaguars and the Lions will likely be without Sam LaPorta. Jameson had already kind of pushed LaPorta down the pecking order in multiple games but now has an even bigger opportunity here. Jameson has 53+ yards in 5-of-7 games this season and in games with a snap rate above 80% has 121, 79, and 80 receiving yards. On top of opportunity, the Jags are 28th in dropback success rate, and dead last in dropback EPA per play. The Jags have periodically played incredibly high rates of man coverage. This lines up perfectly for Williams who has averaged 4.34 yards per route against man. Even if they don't play too much man, Rich Hribar nailed it in his column:

"The Jaguars have allowed a 54.5% catch rate to wide receivers on deep throws this season, 31st in the league.

No team has allowed more yards (665) to wide receivers on deep throws than Jacksonville."

This was originally released at 41.5 at FD in the discord

Risk 0.25 units on 70+ yards at +265 at FD

Risk 0.1 units on 90+ yards at +530 at FD

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

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Jaylen Warren U24.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)

Warren nearly didn't play here, coming down to a game-time decision. He is coming off his best game of the season but we have seen the Steelers tread lightly when he gets banged up. At the start of the season, he saw just two carries in Week 1 with him recovering from an injury and in Week 6 after a two-week absence he saw just 6 carries. In general, this is a terrible environment for running the ball as the Steelers are underdogs against a strong Ravens run D (1st in rush SR and 2nd in EPA). Multiple outs here for this to go under.

Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit

Tyjae Spears U28.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)

The box score peripherals look good for Spears and bad for Pollard but as @lotenj pointed out, he didn’t even see a carry until the mid 2nd quarter when Pollard crawled off the field after an awkward tackle. He then saw 5 of his 7 carries directly after that play and the other 2 in the 4th quarter with the game out of hand. Pollard since was taken off the injury report. Beyond misleading usage numbers, the Vikings are 1st in run D epa and 2nd in rush SR allowed. The Titans are also near TD underdogs here leaving game script as an out as well.

Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit

Taysom Hill over 18.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftkIngs)

Taysom is coming off a season-high 63% route run rate and has been worked in more as a pass-catcher each of the pas 3 weeks. He has had 36, 41, and 21 yards on 38 -> 47 - > 63% routes run. He has a 20% TPRR this season as well, largely due to his team-leading 1st read target share at 16.7% since Olave went down. His prop should probably be in the low 20's. Risk 1.13 units to win 1 unit

JK Dobbins U14.5 carries (-125 at DK)

As always, multiple outs for this under. Gus Edwards returned last week and outperformed Dobbins on 5 fewer carries. Dobbins saw his lowest carry share since Week 2 at just 45%. We have seen multiple other RBs return from a torn Achilles and play well for a stretch of time and then slow down to a virtual halt, (see James Robinson a few years ago). It wouldn't surprise me to see more of the same here as the Chargers lean more on Gus Edwards as the season progresses.

The Chargers are also only 1.5-point favorites against the best offense they have played all season which adds potential for the Chargers to play in negative or neutral game script. Prior to last week, we have seen the Chargers spike in pass rate over expectation which is a possibility here as well.

Game script, higher pass rate, and workload concerns linger for Dobbins in this spot. If you only have plus money at 13.5 I would play that too.

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit

Cooper Rush U183.5 passing yards (-120 DK, 181.5 fine at CZRS, Builder, 365, MGM)

We bet Cooper Rush's completions under last week and he was swiftly benched after playing poorly. He completed 13-of-23 passes for 45 yards. He averaged 1.95 yards per attempt, the lowest YPA in a single game since 2001 (H/T Rich Hribar for that pull). Rush is legitimately terrible and in a terrible situation. He runs into another tough matchup here against the Texans who are allowing the lowest completion rate in the league and are 3rd in dropback success rate. On top of a tough matchup, I expect we see Trey Lance mixed in more and another in-game benching is very possible. Tons of outs for this to go under. H/T @PeteyRock0917 in the chat for forcing me to take a second look at this one. Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit

Lamar Jackson U46.5 rushing yards (-114 FD, 44.5 CZRS, Builder)

The Steelers have allowed just 61 total QB rushing yards all season and the fewest yards on scrambles all year. Since picking up his injury two weeks ago, Lamar has just 1 and 3 designed runs. Last week all of his designed runs came in the second half with the Ravens in furious catch-up mode. The Steelers haven't allowed a single QB to run for more than 25 yards which includes Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Daniel Jones. Lamar has faced Tomlin 3x in his career, and has been limited to just 24.5 rushing yards per game with a max of 34 rushing yards on 7 carries. With potentially fewer designed runs, a tough matchup for scrambling, and positive game script, there are multiple ways he goes under again this week. H/T Ben Solak for the shout on this play Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

James Cook U59.5 rushing yards (-114 at FD, 58.5 CZRS, fine to 56.5 at DK)

Since Ray Davis' breakout game, James Cook has just 59% of the team's rushing attempts on 55% of the team's snaps. He now runs into a buzzsaw matchup that is the Kansas City Chiefs. They are allowing just 3.17 yards per carry to opposing running backs and are yet to allow a 60-yard rusher all season. This includes:

• Bijan Robinson: 31 yards on 16 carries
• JK Dobbins: 32 yards on 14 carries
• Alexander Mattison: 15 yards on 14 carries
• Jordan Mason: 58 yards on 14 carries
• Audric Estime: 53 yards on 14 carries
• Derrick Henry: 46 yards on 13 carries
• Zack Moss: 34 yards on 12 carries
• Alvin Kamara 26 yards on 11 carries

Only Mason averaged more than 4 yards per carry (4.14). If the Bills fall behind or decide to go pass-heavy against a weaker Chiefs pass defense it will be tough for Cook to hit 60+ rushing yards in this matchup with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson still seeing reasonable playing time.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Noah Brown U41.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Brown has taken over the full-time WR2 role here but now draws a tough matchup against the Eagles' much-improved defense. They have allowed just two wideouts to clear 41 yards since their Week 5 bye, and that was 42 yards to Amari Cooper and 54 yards to Ja'Marr Chase. The Eagles are allowing just 6.6 YPA to outside wide receivers this year, which is third in the league. Brown lines up outside on over 80% of his routes.

In two games against the best secondaries the Commanders have played (Steelers and Bears), Brown had 33 and 73 (this includes the 52-yard hail mary). The Eagles also figure to run the ball plenty here and once again kill total play volume.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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