Monotone's Week 1 Best Bets: Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, which means it's finally time to finally release some player props. With the sportsbooks releasing props earlier than ever, we will continue to deliver high-value props at widely available numbers. With so many unknown factors, Week 1 presents one of the best opportunities to find value in a very crowded market. Over the last two seasons, I’ve won over 50 units playing on a 0.5u to 1.5u scale, and I look forward to starting the season on the right foot today.

In our first article of the year, I broke down an undervalued Chiefs wide receiver that isn't getting enough love in the market, along with two unders on rotational players that opened with very inflated totals based on name value/projected roles.

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Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Justin Watson o13.5 Rec Yards -110 (365, -115 MGM, -129 C)

Risk 0.55u to win 0.5u

Justin Watson led the NFL in air yards per attempt at 17.5 last season, and I expect him to occupy a similar downfield role once again. With Hollywood Brown ruled out, Watson should seamlessly slide into that WR3 role that he’s played many times over the last couple of years. He also played 90% of preseason snaps with the starters, resulting in some great coach speak from Reid talking about him being involved all year long.

The Ravens' defense will be a very interesting unit, with some turnover on defense with the loss of Mike Macdonald, Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen, and Geno Stone. If there is one thing Macdonald was known for, it was his ability to creatively scheme up pressure w/o blitzing. If the Ravens can’t do this at a high level, then I think it benefits these deeper developing routes, given Mahomes should have a more comfortable pocket to pass in. I still think having Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton will have BAL very strong over the middle of the field, and I think Kelce, in particular, will have one of his tougher matchups of the year.

Both he & Worthy occupy a similar role in terms of downfield targets, and I like them both for that reason. Gonna trust the vet to haul in catch on primetime for us! Over in 14/21 total games last year, including against Baltimore, it might not be the sexiest play on the board, but I like the discount. Really, biggest concern is gamescript, to be honest, but I don’t see the Chiefs being able to easily get ahead and consistently run the ball in this one, should be a close matchup.

Playing this for a half unit because there is plenty of variance in play here, will ramp up a little more aggressively after Week 1.

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Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 39.5 rushing yards (-115 CZRs, DK, B365, BR)

Risk 1.15u to win 1u

We all had a really hard time understanding this number. Even if Zeke somehow overshoots our estimated 8-10 carries, it’s extremely hard to see the upside on those plays, considering it’s very likely that he’s relegated to exclusively short-yardage/goal-line work. Not only that, he gets an extremely tough matchup to start the season against the Browns, who were an above-average run defense last year (10th in rushing success rate allowed).

Dowdle is likely the 1A in this rotation, and we have seen nothing but positive signs from training camp and beat reporters, indicating he is ready to take the next leap as the starter. That leaves Zeke to short yardage situations and the occasional drive. At this point in his career, his role seems pretty locked into goal-line work, along with some pass blocking on clear passing downs.

It would take 13+ carries AND being reasonably efficient for Zeke to get here. I don't think he sees the volume or is efficient after 3.5 and 3.8 YPC in two consecutive seasons. If that wasnt enough, they signed another veteran passed his prime in Dalvin Cook to join this roation. We’ve already seen the line move, would play the under to 34.5 comfortably.

Dontayvion Wicks UNDER 2.5 receptions (-115 DK, -117 CZRS, -110 B365, -114 Builder)

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Dontayvion Wicks played in 10 games, whereas Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs all played more than 10 snaps. In those games, he averaged 2.8 targets and 1.9 receptions. In the other 7 games, he averaged 4.9 targets for 3.1 receptions.

Rich Hribar further illuminated these splits in his worksheet: "Wicks only a 19.9% route participation rate on dropbacks with Watson available.

That rate went down to 13.3% when both Watson and Reed were on the field and then down to just one route all season with Watson, Reed, and Doubs on the field, who still are projected to be the WR1-WR3."

Romeo Doubs is currently "limited" but per Jeff Mueller and others in the know, should be fine and it's mostly a pain tolerance issue. Doubs also said he did everything he wanted at practice yesterday.

Wicks is probably looking at a 30-40% snap rate here against an improved Eagles secondary who added Isaiah Rodgers, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean this offseason. They also are switching defenses, all positive factors after last year's dismal performance in the secondary.

Rico Dowdle o36.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -115 (365/MGM, -120 DK, -125 C)

Risk 0.57u to win 0.5u

We are doubling down on our Zeke fade with a bet on his direct competition, thanks to some great offseason coachspeak. Mike McCarthy talking about RB Rico Dowdle:

“He’ll have a lesser role in special teams, just because of workload focus. He’s a complete running back, plays all three downs. I think his pass protection from his rookie year to now has become one of his best assets.”

“In a room that includes Elliott and Dalvin Cook, Dowdle should be the favorite to lead the Cowboys in rushing attempts and rushing yards this season,” via beat reporter @jonmachota

While the volume was limited last season Dowdle averaged 40.7 rushing yards in six games with 6+ carries, posting 23+ yards in all of those games. He was efficient both on the ground (4.1 YPC) and through the air (8.5 YPC). Think there is enough upside in both categories to justify paying a couple yards extra for the rushing + receiving combo. One of Zeke’s best qualities in the past has been pass protection so seeing Dowdle praised for that specifically is a good sign. We already have exposure to the Zeke unders but these lines are low enough to warrant another bet. I think even in a more reduced role this would still be a great line for Dowdle.

Chris Godwin o56.5 Rec Yards -110 365, -115 DK, -119 C, 57.5 -114 FD

1.1u to win 1u

New offensive coordinator Liam Cohen has spent all offseason talking about moving Godwin back into the slot, where he has been most efficient in his career.

“He’s an inside guy by nature. He can play outside, but he can make a living inside doing a bunch of things for us, and we plan to let him do a lot of things that he does best.”

Washington has one of the absolute worst cornerback groups in the league, and he will likely mostly be matched up with the rookie Mike Sainristil, who he has a pretty good size mismatch against. Expecting a competitive game, and with Mike Evans likely getting alot of safety attention over the top, I think Godwin absolutely cuts this team up through the middle. While he started the season incredibly slow coming off an ACL injury last year, I think Godwin is in store for a great bounceback season.

Javonte Williams o2.5 REC (-134 BR, -138 FD, -145 DK/Builder/365) 1.38u to win 1u

Jaleel McLaughlin o12.5 Rec Yards (-110 B365, -119 C, -120 DK) 0.55u to win 0.5u

67% of Bo Nix’s throws last year were under 10 yards with an ADOT of 7.0 despite being stacked w/ talent. Bo had a 18% RB target share last season and led the draft class with 89 RB targets. He showed the ability to get the ball out fast and I think he’s a great fit for a Payton system that’s finished T5 in RB targets in each of his last 10 seasons!!

Javonte Williams ranked 3rd in target rate among RBs last year while the Broncos ranked first in RB targets. He now gets a perfect quarterback to continue the trend considering he profiles as the clear starting back. Also love the matchup against a talented Seattle defense that now gets a big coaching upgrade with Macdonald in town. Both Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds get brutal outside matchups with Woolen/Witherspoon. Pressure was their problem last year but I think the new staff should help with that, not that Bo Nix needed any help checking down.

Last year SEA allowed the 9th-highest yards per rush, but they since brought in Macdonald whose Ravens finished right behind them at 10th, despite working with a stronger linebacker core.

Despite a limited snap share Jaleel McLaughlin finished 5th in YPRR among RB’s. He proved to be very shifty when he had the ball in his hands. All this while Perine served as the primary pass catching back, cutting him in the offseason shows a lot of confidence in the room they currently have and is a huge factor here. Javonte had more burst in the preseason but I still don’t expect him to be the pre-injury version of himself, I think McLaughlin will continue to build out his role as the season goes on.

I wouldn’t normally want to play two competing backs but I see value in both numbers considering how active I expect the short passing game to be early. Likely will see a trailing game script as 6-point underdogs.