2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5

Oct 04, 2023
2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5

The Breakout Receiver Model is back for Week 5 of the 2023 season. Each week we'll review last week's big hits. Then we'll point the model forward, and use it to identify players who may be over or underperforming the value of their opportunity, whether that be due to luck, skill, or a variety of the two. We'll use the model to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long players, then we analyze the main slate in an attempt to locate players with a higher likelihood of hitting a ceiling performance than the public perceives.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration of the receiver breakout model. It uses machine learning to identify underperforming wide receivers and tight ends who could be on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weighs the last three weeks of data.

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