Week 3 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
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Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.
There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.
I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season.
If you're waiting for this article to get some of my favorite tackle and assist bets of the week, you really need to get into the subscriber Discord. Even more than standard offensive props, these markets move quickly.
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Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets
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Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (+106, Caesars)
After missing practice again on Thursday, Jaylen Waddle is trending towards missing this game due to a Week 2 concussion. That creates an even larger workload to be funneled to Tyreek Hill.
Per Sharp Football's Rich Hribar, Hill has run 95 routes with Waddle off the field since the start of last season. On those routes, Hill has been targeted 43.2% of the time, which is 32.8% of the overall team targets. As is, Hill has been targeted on 36% of his routes through the first two weeks of 2023.
Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain is elite and one of the league's best, but with the way Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel moves Tyreek Hill around pre-snap, he's impossible to shadow. As is, that hasn't been how Surtain has been used to date. In the first two weeks, against Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin, Surtain has 'shadow' on just 48% of his snaps so far this season. Good offense beats good defense all the time, so Surtain isn't a reason to stay away here, even if Jaylen Waddle was surprisingly active.
I'm so used to seeing Tyreek's reception line posted at 7.5, so getting this at 6.5 and plus money is a tremendous value. This is comfortably playable to 6.5 (-120)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.06 units on Caesars
Demario Davis (NO) Under 8.5 Tackles + assists (-115, DraftKings)
Davis has topped this mark in two of his past 23 games, one of which was Week 1 this year, which is clearly impacting this line.
PFF charts tackles vs. expected, taking into account where they lined up on the field, what kind of defense they played in, what offensive situation they faced, their role in each individual play, and how many snaps they played. Davis was dead last (116th out of 116 linebackers) in this metric last season, finishing with 47.3 fewer tackles than expected. It was the continuation of a decline since Davis was near the bottom in 2021 as well (-26.2).
Even with a positive scorekeeper bump visitors get in Green Bay, I have Davis projected for 6.05 in this matchup based on his rolling 2-year baseline production. If I give him a bump based on his 2023 production (10 TAs in Week 1, 6 in Week 2) AND crank the projected play volume up in this matchup, he still projects for less than 7.5.
I prefer the 8.5, but I don't hate under 7.5 at plus money if this moves drastically.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings
C.J. Henderson (CAR) Over 3.5 Tackles + assists (-111, Caesars)
C.J. Henderson is one of the better tackling cornerbacks in the league, ranking ninth in PFF's tackling grade at the position. With Jaycee Horn injured, the Panthers' depth is being tested in the back half, and Henderson is locked into an every-down role.
Henderson has topped this mark in six of his past eight starts when playing at least 75% of the snaps, including Monday night's seven-tackle performance against the Saints. The Panthers are in Seattle this week, and Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith loves throwing outside the numbers. In last week's matchup against the Lions, both of Detroit's starting corners had at least six tackles. I have him projected for 4.9 TAs here, but I wouldn't chase past 3.5 (-145) unless you have access to plus-money alt lines.
Risk: 1.11 units to win 1 unit on Caesars
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I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.
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