SharpClarke Divisional Preview: NFC East

Jul 03, 2023

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

I love July. NFL content suddenly seems more relevant as training camps are just around the corner. Over the next eight weeks, I'll be breaking down each division in detail, focusing on what to look for from each team in both the futures markets and the early season.

As always, if you'd like access to all my NFL picks and analysis, you can find me in the 4for4 Discord. For access, use promo code SharpClarke to save 10% off a 4for4 Betting Subscription

Get a full year of our subscription for as low as $10, or 3 months for $5! Find out how.

Without further ado, let's dive into the NFC East.

Philadelphia Eagles

Narrative

The Eagles have built a team the right way. Outside of landing a game-changing quarterback talent like Patrick Mahomes, the best way to build a winning offense in the NFL is to surround the quarterback with elite protection and weapons, then build an offense around the specific skillset of that quarterback. The Eagles make use of every down, squeezing out yards consistently while avoiding negative plays. And Jalen Hurts progressed massively last year, with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith making play after play downfield. The success in the short game created one-on-one opportunities, particularly when the Eagles had the lead and could force defenses to account for a strong rushing attack. After showing glimpses of what they were capable of in 2021, they walked past an easy schedule on their way to the Super Bowl.

Before the Super Bowl, I remained skeptical that the Eagles were built for a shoot-out. But Hurts arguably played his best game as a pro in the Super Bowl, demonstrating he can compete in the highest-pressure moments and when the Eagles need a passing game without a run game. Still, Hurts has enjoyed comfortable pockets during his successful run, similar to Lamar Jackson during his historically good season. They should face a much tougher schedule of opponents this season, and if the offensive line does not stay healthy, there is significant downside risk. Additionally, while performing well overall, the Eagles' defense struggled with every top-tier quarterback they faced, especially quarterbacks that avoid sacks well. They hope that new defensive coordinator Sean Desai can fix those problems, but that remains to be seen. This year's schedule features a much tougher slate on that side of the ball as well. After ending the season so strongly, the Eagles' continued success is being priced as the assumed outcome. If all goes well, they will be back in the mix. But with two new coordinators and a reliance on good offensive line play, this team has more downside than other Super Bowl contenders.

Betting Approach

I don't have a lot of interest in betting on or against the Eagles out of the gate. They are being priced at their peak but for good reason. They finished the season strong, and there is no convincing reason to expect them to suddenly underperform. However, if the early season is unkind in the form of injuries, particularly on the offensive line, there is potential for real struggle starting around Week 6, when they face the Jets, Dolphins, Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys. This stretch also creates some potential volatility in season-long markets.

Dallas Cowboys

Narrative

For years now, the Cowboys have failed to make any serious noise in the playoffs despite decent regular-season performances. Their offense under Kellen Moore thrived when the game plan worked, seeing them pour points on bad opponents in blow-outs. In fact, no NFL team has scored more regular-season points in the last two years than the Cowboys. But whenever they have faced a tough defensive line, as they did against San Francisco in the playoffs last year and the year before, their Plan A stumbled, and they were unable to deliver a Plan B. Despite a consistently stout defense led by Micah Parsons, the Cowboys have not emerged from the "good, not great" tier of NFL teams.

Now Mike McCarthy takes over the play-calling. Analytics experts cringe when he talks about pounding the rock, but I am more optimistic. As NFL defenses have shifted to lighter fronts in an effort to stop elite passing games, the most successful teams have found a counter-punch by playing big and taking small chunks on their way down the field. With Tony Pollard, the new feature back, and some veteran leadership from Brandin Cooks in the wide receiver room, this offense might actually take a step forward this season. Prescott is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC. Meanwhile, the defense dealt with a banged-up secondary in the latter half of 2022 and added Stephon Gilmore to the ranks. On paper, the Cowboys are primed for another strong regular season. But Prescott has never been the type of quarterback to take over a big game. Given how tough their schedule looks, we should have an idea of whether this team is ready to take the next step before the playoffs. In this year's NFC, it might not take much.

Betting Approach

In the past, the Cowboys have been a team to back when they look like they might control a game. Not every team is equipped to cover big spreads, but the Cowboys' combination of elite defensive pressure in obvious passing situations and consistently strong gains from obvious running situations has helped them deliver some big wins. Time will tell whether having a new play-caller impacts this dynamic. The futures markets expect the Cowboys to be a wild card team once again, meaningfully behind the Eagles in division odds. This gap might be overstated.

New York Giants

Narrative

On the surface, Brian Daboll turned this team around and revived Daniel Jones' career last year. The Giants had won six games or fewer in five consecutive years before Daboll willed his team to nine regular-season wins and a playoff win to boot. But my game ratings were consistently low on the Giants, especially early in the year. They squeaked out wins by playing mostly mistake-free football and letting opponents make mistakes. Their offensive efficiency numbers were buoyed by Jones throwing just five interceptions all year, resulting from an offensive game plan that put Jones in a position to make easy decisions, limiting time in the pocket and options in the passing game. Wink Martindale's famously aggressive defense came up with big plays in just the right moments, creating an opportunistic team that frankly won more games than it should have.

Football is a game of variance. When variance stacks up in favor of one team, our brains collectively want to give someone credit instead of recognizing that outlier results occur probabilistically. That credit tends to go to the coach, for all the "intangibles" that we can't quite put a finger on. As a result, six of the last seven Coach of the Year recipients won significantly fewer games the following season. The award rewards overperformance. I won't deny that Daboll did a great job. But this Giants team can be better than it was last year and still only win seven games, particularly against the absolute gauntlet of a schedule they face this year. Consider me highly skeptical of this team repeating last year's success.

Betting Approach

I am apparently not alone in my skepticism. The Giants' win total has been bet down to around 7.5 wins, despite ostensibly improving as a roster. They are also shaping up as 3.5-point home underdogs in Week 1. Good teams don't get more than a field goal at home. It's important to recognize that being down on a team is not actionable if the betting market has followed. Still, the Giants' offensive scheme makes them better against overly-aggressive defensive fronts because their multi-optionality in the running game helps them to capitalize. We might be able to pick our spots with this team.

Washington Commanders

Narrative

Stop me if you've heard this before: A second-year quarterback who only played the final game of his rookie season was named the full-time starter in Eric Bienemy's first season as offensive coordinator with the team. That's right - Sam Howell is on the Patrick Mahomes track. Unfortunately for Washington, Howell is not likely to repeat Mahomes' historic 2018 season. But change can be good, and unknowns carry both potential upside and potential downside. With a decent array of offensive weapons and a strong defensive line, the Commanders are not devoid of talent around the quarterback. They will need the fifth-rounder to step into the void left by Taylor Heinicke and lift this team up to reach its potential. We saw Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka, who worked with Josh Allen and Mahomes, revive Daniel Jones' career last season. Commanders fans will hope Bienemy can have the same effect on Howell.

But after re-watching Howell's only performance as a rookie, I am not optimistic. He had a couple of very nice deep balls but seemed to struggle with the speed of the Cowboys' defense, taking too many sacks and throwing short of the sticks on third down too frequently, ending drives. He also threw one of the worst interceptions of the year in the end zone. He will need to be much, much better. And while the defense gets a lot of credit for its raw numbers last season, my game ratings were closer to the middle of the pack when adjusted for each opponent, including a few backup quarterbacks. They might be tested more this season against a more imposing schedule. Ultimately it's difficult to see any kind of real upside for this team outside of Howell being a massive surprise. But, as we have seen from second-year quarterbacks in recent years, don't count him out.

Betting Approach

I tend to shy away from uncertainty in new situations early in the season. The Commanders have a very wide range of outcomes on offense, and instead of anchoring myself to priors, I will be quick to react to what I see on the field. Defensively, their stout front aggressively stopped the run last year, making them more effective against traditional up-the-gut running teams but more vulnerable to creativity and misdirection. In season-long markets, I can only recommend bets with longer odds if you must play this team, given their inherent variance.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently-available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

Eagles - 11.3 wins, ~50% chance to win the NFC East

Cowboys - 9.9 wins, ~34% chance to win the NFC East

Giants - 7.5 wins, ~9% chance to win the NFC East

Commanders - 6.4 wins, ~7% chance to win the NFC East

Best Bet

My projections have the Eagles and Cowboys closer together than the market odds imply. The teams are similar in strength and face a similarly difficult schedule, but the Eagles' success last year has increased the size of the perceived gap between these teams. And in a division with two teams that are head-and-shoulders above the other two teams, it is exceedingly unlikely one of the bottom teams wins the division. There is always a healthy chance a team drastically underperforms, but the chance two teams drastically underperform is much, much lower. So I like the discount on the Cowboys winning the division, which I give about a 40% chance, equating to +150 odds. The +190 available on DraftKings is my best bet for the division.