Week 3 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen
Week 2 Review: Last week was the worst betting week of my life. It hurt knowing that I not only lost a lot of money but my plays lost other people money as well. It’s something that’s not talked about much in an industry full of only showing big winners but going through downswings is part of the job. The reality is, everyone loses at some point and we certainly got a first-hand look at it in Week 2. I think what made it worse is that most of the carnage came within the final few minutes of the early games.
We bet on Christian Kirk to lead the Jacksonville-Indianapolis game in receiving yards at +220. This was an insane value by our projections and with Michael Pittman Jr. out there weren’t any other pass-catchers who were likely to be heavily involved. Heading into the final part of the fourth quarter with the game well out of hand, Kirk had 78 yards and the next closest pass-catcher in the game hadn’t even hit 50. The next thing you know, Ashton Dulin reels in a 39-yard reception to finish with 79 receiving yards—one more than Kirk. That play alone was a 3.2-unit swing.
Another one of my favorite plays of the week was Joe Flacco under 232.5 passing yards. He finished with 307 but the box score does not tell the full story. Flacco had less than 100 yards at the half and just 185 passing yards with less than two minutes left in the game. The game actually should have been over if Nick Chubb had gone down instead of scoring the Browns' final touchdown (as he admitted). He didn’t, so all we needed was a stop on their final drive or anything other than a long passing touchdown. Of course, the Browns secondary had a busted coverage and Corey Davis got free for a 66-yard touchdown, busting our under. Absolutely brutal.
Before this play…
Joe Flacco had 185 passing yards and the Browns were up 13 points.
Spread: Jets +6.5
Joe Flacco’s passing yard prop: 232.5
So much pain for Browns and Flacco under bettors 💀pic.twitter.com/p6oYEExjbO
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) September 19, 2022
Oh, you thought I was done? It continued to get worse. We bet on Tom Brady to have more passing yards than Jameis Winston at -125 juice, despite sportsbooks having their over/under lines 50+ yards apart. Winston trailed Brady the entire game until there was 2:36 left in the fourth quarter when Winston hit Chris Olave for a 51-yard pass and exceeded Brady’s passing yards.
Saquon Barkley had five carries in the first half, well short of a pace needed to smash our under 18.5 carry prop. He proceeded to get 16 more carries in the second half of the game as the Giants dominated time of possession. The Panthers only had one drive in the second half longer than two minutes and none more than five plays.
I can’t really count Lamar Jackson falling one pass attempt short of our over 29.5 pass attempt prop as a bad beat because he racked up a bunch late. Yet, an opening kick return touchdown, 75-yard touchdown to Rashod Bateman, and 79-yard scramble for a touchdown certainly stifled his passing volume as the Ravens led nearly the entire game.
All-in-all, this could have easily been a positive week with some better variance. Instead, we are left holding the bag. Even though it’s frustrating, I’m not worried. Last season I was down 10 units early on and still wound up finishing up 36 units. Better weeks are ahead, and hopefully, it’s Week 3. Make sure to also check out Ryan Noonan's Week 3 prop bets.
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