Week 3 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen
Week 2 Review: Last week was the worst betting week of my life. It hurt knowing that I not only lost a lot of money but my plays lost other people money as well. It’s something that’s not talked about much in an industry full of only showing big winners but going through downswings is part of the job. The reality is, everyone loses at some point and we certainly got a first-hand look at it in Week 2. I think what made it worse is that most of the carnage came within the final few minutes of the early games.
We bet on Christian Kirk to lead the Jacksonville-Indianapolis game in receiving yards at +220. This was an insane value by our projections and with Michael Pittman Jr. out there weren’t any other pass-catchers who were likely to be heavily involved. Heading into the final part of the fourth quarter with the game well out of hand, Kirk had 78 yards and the next closest pass-catcher in the game hadn’t even hit 50. The next thing you know, Ashton Dulin reels in a 39-yard reception to finish with 79 receiving yards—one more than Kirk. That play alone was a 3.2-unit swing.
Another one of my favorite plays of the week was Joe Flacco under 232.5 passing yards. He finished with 307 but the box score does not tell the full story. Flacco had less than 100 yards at the half and just 185 passing yards with less than two minutes left in the game. The game actually should have been over if Nick Chubb had gone down instead of scoring the Browns' final touchdown (as he admitted). He didn’t, so all we needed was a stop on their final drive or anything other than a long passing touchdown. Of course, the Browns secondary had a busted coverage and Corey Davis got free for a 66-yard touchdown, busting our under. Absolutely brutal.
Before this play…
Joe Flacco had 185 passing yards and the Browns were up 13 points.
Spread: Jets +6.5
Joe Flacco’s passing yard prop: 232.5
So much pain for Browns and Flacco under bettors 💀pic.twitter.com/p6oYEExjbO— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) September 19, 2022
Oh, you thought I was done? It continued to get worse. We bet on Tom Brady to have more passing yards than Jameis Winston at -125 juice, despite sportsbooks having their over/under lines 50+ yards apart. Winston trailed Brady the entire game until there was 2:36 left in the fourth quarter when Winston hit Chris Olave for a 51-yard pass and exceeded Brady’s passing yards.
Saquon Barkley had five carries in the first half, well short of a pace needed to smash our under 18.5 carry prop. He proceeded to get 16 more carries in the second half of the game as the Giants dominated time of possession. The Panthers only had one drive in the second half longer than two minutes and none more than five plays.
I can’t really count Lamar Jackson falling one pass attempt short of our over 29.5 pass attempt prop as a bad beat because he racked up a bunch late. Yet, an opening kick return touchdown, 75-yard touchdown to Rashod Bateman, and 79-yard scramble for a touchdown certainly stifled his passing volume as the Ravens led nearly the entire game.
All-in-all, this could have easily been a positive week with some better variance. Instead, we are left holding the bag. Even though it’s frustrating, I’m not worried. Last season I was down 10 units early on and still wound up finishing up 36 units. Better weeks are ahead, and hopefully, it’s Week 3. Make sure to also check out Ryan Noonan's Week 3 prop bets.
Week 3 Player Prop Bets
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Tom Brady Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Tom Brady has 212 and 190 passing yards in two games this season and now will be without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Julio Jones is 50/50 to play after being a game-time decision last week and won't be 100% if he does play. He took a "veteran rest day" on Wednesday.
The Bucs are not the pass-heavy team of the past and rank 25th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through two games. Now without weapons, I expect them to continue running the ball with Leonard Fournette.
This game total is just at 41 and the Packers also are expected to run the ball a lot, ranking 23rd in pass rate over expectation so far. With less overall play volume, fewer pass attempts, and without his top weapons, this is a good spot to take the under down to 250.5.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Chase Edmonds Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at DraftKings)
The Bills' defense ranks second in explosive run rate allowed and fifth in run defense EPA. Chase Edmonds was out-carried 11-to-5 last week by Raheem Mostert. All negatives. Beyond that, I expect the Bills to force the Dolphins to continue to pass. It took a long run late in the game for Edmonds to get to 33 yards last week and now he has a tougher matchup. Edmonds through two games has really struggled to get going, ranking dead last in rushing yards over expectation.
This line should be around 25 rushing yards.
Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Leonard Fournette Over 15.5 Carries (-105 at DraftKings)
Leonard Fournette has 21 and 24 carries in two games this season. We have him projected for 19.9. The Bucs are 25th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) so far this season. Without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin plus a juicy matchup against Green Bay, who just got ransacked on the ground against Chicago, I expect Fournette to see as much work as he can handle.
I would play this up to 16.5.
Risk: 1.05 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Michael Gallup Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DK)
There is a good chance Michael Gallup plays this week, so I expect this bet to not be voided, but there are multiple ways this under works out for us. There is a good chance he doesn't play a full complement of snaps immediately. The Cowboys have also only played with three-plus wide receivers for 57.9% of their offensive snaps so far.
Cooper Rush also said this in an interview about Gallup: "I mean, seems to me he’ll be working his way in." Beyond that, there have been rumblings he won't be an every-down player right away.
Even if he does play a full snap load, CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown figure to continue to play a big factor in the receiving game. He is also getting targeted by Cooper Rush, a good backup but not necessarily a strong starting quarterback. This game also doesn't necessarily project to be a back-and-forth affair with a low total. It also wouldn't surprise me if both teams committed to the running game.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Marvin Jones Jr. Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DK)
Marvin Jones Jr. is 0/2 to this number this season and now faces his toughest matchup to date against the Chargers. He'll likely square up against Asante Samuel Jr. for the majority of his snaps—he lined up at LWR on 40-of-54 snaps last week and Samuel plays the majority of his snaps out wide at RCB. Samuel is currently PFF's 23rd-ranked corner in the league.
We have Jones projected for 37 receiving yards. I would play this down to 40.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-120 at DK)
I expect this game to be fireworks and it could look similar to their previous week against the Ravens. These two teams rank first and third, respectively, in pass rate over expectation with the Bills passing 74% of the time in neutral game script last week. The Bills' offense has had no problems in the past against the Dolphins with 35 and 26 points scored against them last season with the same defensive coordinator. With the Bills very likely to put up points, the Dolphins are unlikely to see much positive game script. The Bills will also be without three key defensive starters in Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Dane Jackson, and probably Jordan Phillips, too.
Essentially, we expect the Dolphins to come out throwing the ball in neutral scripts and a potentially negative game script could force them to throw the ball even more. Tua Tagovailoa had 50 pass attempts last game and 33 in Week 1, despite playing in a slow, low-scoring game against the Patriots. This game should be the opposite with tons of passing and scoring.
Risk: 1.2 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Tyler Conklin Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DK)
C.J. Uzomah practiced in full and is "trending towards playing" against his former team. He has also been dead set on not missing this game for what that's worth.
Uzomah figures to rotate in with Tyler Conklin, so it likely reduces his opportunity after Conklin has played 92 and 100 percent of the snaps the past two weeks and ran 84.4% of the routes (more than Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis!).
Conklin is 1/2 to this number this season despite seeing seven and nine targets in two games due to his 1.1 average depth of target (aDOT), an impressively low number on 15 targets.
I also expect the Jets' league-leading pass attempts to come back down to earth at some point as well. Less pass volume and less playing time combined with a low aDOT make this a good look.
I'd play this to 25 receiving yards.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Breece Hall Under 1.5 Receptions (+110 at DK)
Breece Hall had a massive Week 1 in the receiving game but saw only one target after running a route on just 14.9% of pass plays in Week 2 on nine total routes. This was because the Jets made a deliberate effort to put in Ty Johnson a lot more (21% routes run) after not using him in Week 1 and Michael Carter saw his routes run rate climb to over 51%. I also expect the Jets' pass volume to eventually regress as they currently lead the league in pass attempts. If Breece Hall's snap share and routes run remain the same as last week he is likely to see one or fewer targets. This is a great look at plus-money.
Risk 1 unit to win 1.1 units at DraftKings.
I will update this column throughout the week with more bets.
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