Wild Card Weekend NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Ryan Noonan

Jan 13, 2023
Ryan Noonan's Top Wild Card Weekend NFL Player Props

If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team.

You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it over the years. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.

There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season.

Our Discord users know my new passion is tackle and assist props, but sportsbooks had been posting them later and later each week, making it impossible to feature them here weekly. If you're looking for tackle and assist looks, I always preview a few of my favorites on our Move The Line Prop Drop show on Friday afternoons but make sure you're in Discord to get the official plays each week. The player prop tool is also pulling in my projections, an added bonus if you're looking to dip your toes in this market. Also, make sure to check out who Connor Allen is betting on.

Wild Card Weekend NFL Player Prop Bets

Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (-122, FanDuel)

Chris Godwin is Tom Brady's favorite target and the only Buccaneer with a target-per-route run rate (TPRR) north of 20% (24%). Even last week, in limited work against the Falcons, Godwin caught six balls on seven targets, a 50% TPRR on just 17 Brady dropbacks.

Cowboys' slot corner DaRon Bland has been a popular target for opposing offenses since taking over. His coverage snaps per target rate (5.0) is the second-highest in the league, as is his snaps per rec rate (6.6). With Brady projected to drop back 42-45 times in this spot, Godwin should be heavily involved early and often.

Risk: 1.22 units to win 1 unit on FanDuel.

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