Wild Card Weekend NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen
Week 18 and Futures Recap: Week 18 wasn’t so hot for us after doubling down on Jets overs, losing Rhamondre Stevenson’s under on his final carry, and the Jaguars passing offense faltering the entire fourth quarter. It wasn’t all bad, though, as we successfully navigated both the Bengals and Christian McCaffrey unders. On the other hand, our futures card was hot. We went 17-7 for +16.35 units, and we have a 25/1 ticket on Nick Sirianni to win Coach of the Year still pending. Prior to his two losses towards the end of the season, Sirianni was as high as -400 to take home the award. Before their win over the Giants, Sirianni was still the co-lead to win the award along with Brian Daboll and Kyle Shanahan. The winner will likely come down to who receives more second-place votes.
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Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Bets
Elijah Mitchell Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)
This opened at 33.5 and is playable to 40 yards. The Niners are 9.5-point favorites against the Seahawks' bottom-tier run defense in the rain.
In terms of Mitchell's workload, in the four games he has played with Christian McCaffrey, he has recorded 89, 59, 35 (injured mid-game), and 55 rushing yards. He had more rushing yards than McCaffrey in every single one of those contests and out-carried him in two of those games. We'll likely see a hefty dose of Mitchell in a game the Niners figure to be leading in.
Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
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Ken Walker Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The last time these teams met in Week 15 in San Francisco, Ken Walker's prop closed below 50 rushing yards. He wound up with 47 rushing yards on 12 carries. This line is being impacted by the recency bias of two big games in wins over the Jets and Rams, plus a good game against the Chiefs' middling run defense. The Niners rank second in run defense DVOA, allowing 3.29 yards per carry to opposing running backs. They have allowed the fewest total rushing yards to opposing running backs all season.
Since Walker took over as the lead back in Week 6, the Seahawks have lost four games.
His stat lines in those games:
- 10 carries for 17 yards against the Buccaneers
- 14 carries for 26 yards the Raiders
- 12 carries for 47 yards against the Niners
- 26 carries for 107 yards against the Chiefs
This matchup is nearly identical to their previous game and if anything, there is an even bigger risk of a blowout considering the Niners are healthier with Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell back. The spread is 10 points, the Niners will very likely skew massively run-heavy against Seattle's poor run defense, and there are multiple outs for the under in that scenario. Even if the game does remain close the matchup is tough. Walker needs to sniff 20 carries to have a chance.
Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel.
I will update this column throughout the week with more bets.
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