Week 12 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Wide Receivers

Nov 23, 2022
Week 12 Start/Sit Candidates: Wide Receivers

Wondering whom to start and sit at wide receiver this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the wide receiver position for Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.

More Start/Sits: QB | RB | TE

Week 11 Review – half-PPR scoring



Wide Receiver – Starts

Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders) vs. Atlanta Falcons

With fill-in quarterback Taylor Heinicke under center in Weeks 7-11, Washington Commanders Terry McLaurin has garnered a top-eight usage profile, yet the fantasy points have lagged. Week 12 offers big-time get-right potential as the Atlanta Falcons’ 34.4 half-PPR points allowed per game to opposing wide receivers leads the league by a 0.9-point margin, per 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. The table below ranks McLaurin among NFL wide receivers with at least 15 targets during that span.

Terry McLaurin Team Tgt. % Tgt. Per Route Run % Yards per Route Run % Weighted Opportunity Rating Half-PPR PPG
Weeks 7-11 31.6% (No. 3) 29.0% (T-No. 8) 2.87 (No. 7) 0.83 (No. 1) 12.4 (No. 21)

Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills) @ Detroit Lions

Gabe Davis is primed for liftoff versus the Detroit Lions first thing on Thanksgiving morning. The high-profile wide receiver’s 90.4% route participation rate ranks No. 7 among 53 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets this year and his 16.2-yard average depth of target (aDot) ranks No. 1, per 4for4’s NFL Player Stats Explorer.

Davis has been a positively volatile producer, delivering 14.9 or more fantasy points in four-of-nine games this year, once clearing 30.0.

4for4 betting partner, BetMGM, currently has Buffalo at Detroit pegged for a 54.5-point over/under, the highest game total on the Week 12 slate, and Buffalo’s surreal 32.0-point implied team total indicates four-plus touchdown potential for the offense.

Detroit is allowing 32.5 half-PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers, the fourth most on the season. Their 11.3% explosive pass plays allowed rate is the highest in the league, which pairs nicely with Davis’ downfield role.

Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ injury-riddled secondary is allowing 272.3 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL, and an 11.1% explosive pass plays allowed rate, the second most per 4for4’s NFL Team Stats Explorer. Their 31.4 half-PPR points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers is the fifth highest.

Among Indianapolis Colts to have earned at least five targets since new head coach Jeff Saturday took over in Week 10, Michael Pittman Jr. leads the team with a 26.7% target share and closely trails Parris Campbell with a 27.0% targets per route run rate and a 2.17 yards per route run rate. All three are wonderfully proficient marks. He should have little issue returning value this week.

*Check out the full WR Rankings here.

Wide Receiver – Sits

Diontae Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Indianapolis Colts

Among Pittsburgh Steelers pass catchers to have recorded at least five targets since the team’s Week 9 bye, nominal No. 1 wide receiver Diontae Johnson’s 12.0% targets per route run rate ranks fourth-of-four and his 1.05 yards per route run rate ranks third. In that span, Johnson has averaged just 6.3 half-PPR points per game, tied for 65th at the position overall.

Johnson is a decent bet to draw shadow coverage from the Indianapolis Colts’ lockdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore this week. Indianapolis has limited opposing wide receivers to just 20.4 half-PPR points per game, the second-fewest in the league.

Indianapolis has limited opposing passing games to just 192.6 yards per game, the sixth-fewest, and a 6.4% explosive pass plays allowed rate, the third lowest.

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