NBA Player Prop Bets: Let's Have A (LaMelo) Ball For New Year's Eve
The last NBA slate of the 2022 calendar year is officially upon us, with 18 teams hitting the hardwood on Saturday. Of the nine games, eight of them tip off at 7 PM EST or later, so those will be the focus from a player prop standpoint. My three favorite player props for Saturday’s slate are outlined below.
As a side note, I want to extend a huge shoutout and thank you to my fellow NBA analyst Rick Camp, who stepped in and covered for me on Friday’s slate as myself and my family battled a bout with COVID-19. It’s always +EV to bet on a guy with an expanded role, and Rick proved that theory true again yesterday, so thank you, Rick!
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 truly makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not specifically paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.
Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (December 31, 2022)
[subscribe_betting]
LaMelo Ball Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 at BetMGM)
To say that LaMelo Ball has been on an absolute tear from a statistical standpoint would be a gross understatement of his recent production. Since returning from injury in mid-December, Ball has played in nine games. Across those nine games, he’s averaged 25.2 points, 7.9 assists, and 6.6 rebounds per game. He’s played 34.6 minutes per game and has shot the ball at an exceptional clip given the fact that a large portion of his volume comes from beyond the arc (39.6%).
Heading into a matchup with the red-hot Nets, it would make sense why bettors may be a bit weary of this number. That being said, the potential absence of Ben Simmons would give Ball the opportunity to take advantage of more exploitable one-on-one matchups. His underlying metrics also point to this level of performance continuing, as he holds a 29.3% usage rate and 34.2% assist rate, both team highs. With Kelly Oubre also ruled out of this game, we can expect even more usage from Ball, as he’s posted a gaudy 34.4% usage rate this season with Oubre off the court.
With so many factors working in Ball’s favor ahead of an uninspiring matchup, this feels like a great number to target with the over.
Risk: 1.20 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit.
Zach LaVine Over 22.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
Zach LaVine’s 2022 season has been quite the rollercoaster so far, as he’s shown incredibly inconsistent play on the court while also voicing his displeasure with the organization off the floor. At this moment in time, however, we’re riding the high of the said rollercoaster, as LaVine is fresh off of a 43-point outing on Friday night and is expected to appear in a back-to-back set this weekend (it’s the little wins that add up).
A matchup on Saturday with the Cavs is a daunting one, but it’s far more imposing for DeMar DeRozan than it is for LaVine, which leads me to love LaVine’s point prop here. The Cavs’ biggest defensive strength is defending shots in the mid-range, as they rank top-five in the league in allowing the lowest field-goal percentage on midrange jumpers. That alone will make DeRozan’s life hard enough that we should see a lot of deferral to LaVine.
LaVine, who is shooting over 38% from deep this season, heads into a matchup with a Cavs team allowing the sixth-highest three-point percentage (36.6%) this season. He’s also topped this prop in three of his last four games, shooting at least 18 times in all four of his most recent games. He continues to flirt with 40 minutes on a nightly basis and this game is expected to be competitive, so we could see an absolute show from deep from LaVine.
Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Jaden Ivey Over 15.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)
The Pistons are one of the thinnest teams in the NBA right now thanks to a combination of injuries and suspensions, but the silver lining is the fact that it’s giving other players the chance to shine.
Without Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes, we got to see Jaden Ivey step into a much larger role. In this game against the Bulls, Ivey saw a team-high 70 touches in only 29.2 minutes, posting a 23.6% usage rate (second on the team) and a 70% effective field goal percentage (70%!).
Outside of just the last game, we also have a 195.8-minute sample size of Ivey on the court with Cunningham, Hayes, and Hamidou Diallo (who is also suspended) off the court. In those minutes, Ivey averaged 18.94 points per 36 minutes with a 29.5% usage rate.
After seeing some Alex Caruso last night, it’ll be difficult for his matchup to get any harder tonight, as the Wolves instill far less fear defensively. With such a low points prop and a thin rotation, this is an over that I want in on for Saturday’s slate.
Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
