NFL Week 12 Betting Picks: Against The Spread

We are back on the eve of Thanksgiving with our Week 12 against the spread betting picks. We have just two teams on bye this week, albeit a pair of high-scoring teams in the Cardinals and Chiefs.

We went a tough-to-swallow 1-2 in Week 11. The Dolphins did their job, never giving up the cover for almost the entirety of the fourth quarter. The Panthers did not, and perhaps we were giving a Cam Newton-led offense a little too much credit. After jumping out to a 14-7 lead in the middle of the second quarter, the Panthers' offense scored just seven more points for the remainder of the game, losing to the Washington Football Team. That was an alarming home loss for the Panthers as Washington's defense without Chase Young is truly one of the worst in the league. The Saints' loss was something of a shocker the way it played out. That defense allowing four rushing touchdowns was a true surprise. All the more tilting was going out on the limb of using Adam Trautman for the cover photo in his breakout game, who went 5/58/1 on 8 targets. Of course, he got injured and is now on I.R., but he was the best player on the Saints offense on Sunday.

Onto this week’s plays. We will have three bets, two of which on the three-game Thanksgiving day slate. Let’s get to them.

Week 12 Spread Picks

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Be honest. Did you ever think Andy Dalton could be classified as the shot in the arm an offense needed? Me neither. That was exactly how last week’s Bears game against the Ravens played out, though, after Dalton came on in relief of the injured Justin Fields in the third quarter. When Dalton entered the game, the Bears were trailing 6-0 (yes it was the second half). His first two passes were a 23-yarder to Jimmy Graham, followed up by a 60-yard touchdown strike to Darnell Mooney. After the defense gave up the lead, Dalton hit Marquise Goodwin for a 49-yard touchdown in the final two minutes. Again, the defense blew the lead, but with Dalton at quarterback, the Bears' offense looked far more competent.

Dalton will start once again on Thursday, but he will not need to put the offense on his shoulders in a matchup with the Lions. This game will be David Montgomery’s time, who has returned to his bell-cow role. The Lions are the second-worst team in the league, allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game. That average is progressively getting worse as they are allowing 188.3 on the ground over their last three games at a 5.0 yards-per-carry rate. Montgomery is going to enjoy plenty of room to run and put on a performance similar to that of Nick Chubb last Sunday.

The Lions' offense remains miserable. Jared Goff returns to the lineup on Sunday, but he will be no real upgrade over last week’s starter, Tim Boyle. Consider this: After scoring 33 points on the 49ers in Week 1, the Lions have not scored 20 points in any other game this year. They have averaged just 10.7 points per game over their last three, not far off of their seasonal average. The Bears are a team opponents generally have to competently pass against to beat, and that is not how the Lions are able to operate. This will certainly not be the most exciting game of the day, but it projects as a walk through win for the Bears.

Pick: Bears -3 on DraftKings.

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints

The Bills have been very up and down this season on offense. Three of their four losses have come due to a true failure to launch on the offensive side of the ball. Even adding in a 31-point output in their loss to the Titans, the Bills average just 17 points per game in their losses. Conversely, they average 37.8 points per game in wins. The divide is wide in terms of points allowed as well. In losses, they allow 26.8 points per game. In wins, they allow 11.5 points per game. This is a team that essentially either shows up or they don’t. They have not lost consecutive games this season, so the good news is they have not had back-to-back duds. After last week’s dud in which Jonathan Taylor did his best Shang Tsung impression and took their collective soul, there is a bounce-back coming against a decimated Saints team.

The Saints, who will presumably start Trevor Siemian once again, are in the midst of a three-game losing streak. They have not had to play the toughest matchups in recent weeks, as two of those losses have come to the Eagles and Falcons. The offense led by Siemian is not helpless, but it is one that has trouble with consistency early on in games. They very well could be without both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as well, so finding a playmaker will truly be a task.

The Saints defense has seen a fall-off overall over the past month. After allowing 16.8 points per game over their first six, they have allowed 29.3 points per game over their last four. All four opponents have scored at least 23 points. With the Bills showing us they are an all or nothing team, all indications are the Saints will not be able to hold the Bills offense down to nothing. Take the Bills to roll in New Orleans.

Pick: Bills -6 on FanDuel.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

This AFC West matchup is quite a key one for the division down the stretch. The Chargers trail the Chiefs by a half-game while the Broncos are a game-and-a-half back.

There are 11 teams in the league that have had more success on the road than at home this season. Included in that very high number are both the Chargers and the Broncos. In terms of divisional outcomes this year, the Chargers have won both of their matchups. The Broncos have played just one divisional game, a loss. They will be seeing plenty of divisional opponents down the stretch.

The Broncos offense will continue to be a liability. Of course, Teddy Bridgewater only allows them to do so much with the passing game, but that is not the only issue. For whatever reason, they have refused to hand Javonte Williams the keys to the backfield. He is the type of player who can truly elevate an offense, but he continues to split time with Melvin Gordon. Gordon has not been bad this season by any means, but he no longer has the skill set to elevate an offense the way Williams does. The result will continue to be what has been. The Broncos have failed to score 20 points in three of their last four games and the same holds true in five of their last seven.

The Chargers' offense got back to what works last week. After a 4-1 start in which Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler were the stars, the offensive philosophy had a four-week hiccup. Those players were less involved and the team went through a 1-3 stretch. They got back to what works last week, scoring 41 points with big games from both Williams and Ekeler. They will continue to roll on the scoreboard if they do not attempt to outthink themselves.

The Broncos' offense, per usual, will not be able to keep pace with the Chargers. If the Chargers get a lead, a forced pass-happy approach from the Broncos will only result in the Chargers' lead being extended.

Pick: Chargers -2.5 on DraftKings.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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