Week 3 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Sep 26, 2020

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Week 2 Recap: Last Sunday was one of the most tilting football weekends. There was a bloodbath of injuries that destroyed fantasy teams and over bets alike. Obviously, the actual human beings who were injured are much more important than our fantasy teams, but for those as invested in football as us it’s still certainly frustrating to see. Our losses from this column came at the hands of an unholy combination of circumstances. Adam Humphries caught a ball on the final drive to finish with 47 yards, busting our under by 1.5 yards. Scott Miller SZN lasted all of one drive after he alligator-armed a long touchdown pass from Brady that definitely should have been caught. He spent the rest of the game in Brady’s doghouse. Targeting Ravens pass-catchers made a lot of sense until the Ravens began thoroughly dismantling the Texans. Lamar Jackson attempted just seven total second-half passes, attempting four in the third quarter and just three in the fourth. As just 7-point favorites, even the most efficient betting market in all of sports wasn’t predicting a beat-down this bad. Despite this, Marquise Brown only finished seven yards short of his props and caught 5-of-6 targets. There will be better weeks to target both Brown and Mark Andrews.

Before we dive into the Week 3 bets, I want to mention that if you are serious about trying to make money it’s important to join our Discord and check out the #props channel. I post almost all of my favorite plays for island games as well as any early lines that stand out when they're released on Friday. This week I mentioned that PointsBet opened up Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards at 95.5. We have him projected for 59 yards. I recommended that those in the Discord hop on this immediately because the rest of the market will probably open this up somewhere in the 70’s. It got taken off the board within 20 minutes. Anyway, we move on to Week 3.

DraftKings Week 3 Player Props

Kenyan Drake Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

At first glance, this might seem high but when considering his usage and the matchup, it's not. Drake has a shot to double this number against Detroit. After racking up 16 and 20 rushing attempts in his first two games on 65% and 71% of the snaps, respectively, Drake is entrenched as the lead back. He now has a mouth-watering draw against a porous Detroit run defense. The Lions have been ripped on the ground, allowing 149 and 249 rushing yards in consecutive weeks. They rank 29th in rushing success rate allowed (63%) and are dead last in explosive run rate allowed (19%). A lot of this stems from their last-place ranking in adjusted line yards (5.81). This means their defensive line is getting bullied off the ball and allowing big holes for opposing running backs. The Cardinals are also 5.5-point favorites, which means there is a slim chance they will be in negative game script and forced to throw to play catch-up. With a big workload against a bad defensive team, it’s time to fire the cannons and bet the over on Drake at 77.5 rushing yards.

Risk: 1.12 Units to Win 1 Unit