Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings: Week 13

Dec 03, 2020
Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings: Week 13

Stacking players is a stairway to the top of daily fantasy tournaments, maximizing upside by creating the sort of volatility that can help your roster post a crooked score—one way or another.

Below are some of the most intriguing stacking plays I found while sifting through the week's matchups. Most of these options will leave room for high-ceiling studs. The goal, naturally, is to get a lot for a little. So let's get into it.

For up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel.

Cleveland Browns (+4) @ Tennessee Titans; O/U 53.5

QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans ($7,800 FD/$6,200 DK)

WR A.J. Brown, Titans ($8,200 FD/$7,600 DK)

WR Jarvis Landry, Browns ($6,000 FD/$6,200 DK)

It’s dawning on fantasy managers—speaking for myself, of course—that Cleveland has one of the softest, most generous secondaries in the NFL. A prototypical pass funnel defense, everyone from Joe Burrow (twice) to Carson Wentz to future Jaguars ring-of-famer Mike Glennon has ripped into the Browns defense.

Nearly 70% of the yardage gained against Cleveland this season has come through the air and 64.7% of the touchdowns scored against them have been via the pass, the seventh-highest rate in the league. It all sets up nicely for Tannehill, who has the league’s fourth-highest adjusted completion rate—accounting for drops, spikes, throwaways, and batted passes—and eight multi-touchdown games this year. Tannehill has excelled in plus matchups in 2020, ripping Houston in Week 6 for 366 yards and four touchdowns and torching Jacksonville for 240 yards and four scores. Does it hurt that Tennessee sports a sky-high 29.75-point implied total? It does not.

And if Tannehill is going to have a big day against an exploitable Browns secondary, A.J. Brown is more than a little likely to also post gaudy numbers. Brown leads the Titans with a 24% target share and a remarkable 15.9 yards per catch thanks to his otherworldly after-the-catch ability. His excellent season could look even better if he hadn’t dropped two long balls in recent weeks. Brown, priced among wideouts who will likely have higher ownership in GPPs, could be under the proverbial radar this week. On FanDuel, where touchdowns mean a lot more, Brown is especially enticing. Tanny and Brown, by the bye, have this week’s fourth-highest projected ceiling among QB/WR1 combos, per the 4for4 floor and ceiling machine.

Running it back with Landry makes sense if you see this game as a high-scoring back and forth contest or a game in which Tennessee jumps out to a lead and forces the Browns to abandon their run-heavy ways. With a 28% target share since Odell Beckham, Jr. went down to injury, Landry is the only viable wideout in this Cleveland offense. This week he goes against a Titans defense allowing the fifth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to receivers and a 65.9% completion rate to opposing passers. The hope is that Landry’s Week 13 price jump—following a 143-yard, one-score performance against the Jaguars—will keep DFS players away from him. We’ve seen slot receivers post solid fantasy numbers against the Titans, including JuJu Smith-Schuster (nine catches on 14 targets for 85 yards) and Tyler Boyd (six grabs on seven targets for 61 yards and a touchdown). Landry, with the right game script, could be next.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Houston Texans; O/U 51

QB Deshaun Watson, Texans ($8,200 FD/$7,500 DK)

WR Isaiah Coulter, Texans ($4,500 FD/$3,000 DK)

WR Michael Pittman, Colts ($5,600 FD/$4,900 DK)

Yes, I’m going full Galaxy Brain here. I’m willingly touting a minimum-priced wide receiver who hasn’t run a pass route this season. I am not—no matter what you hear—being held against my will in the basement of an abandoned countryside house. I’m doing this under my own free will, if such a thing exists.

Kenny Stills left town, Will Fuller is done for the year after being busted for PEDs, and Randall Cobb remains out with a significant toe injury. That leaves Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Coulter as the options for Houston’s three-receiver sets. And it’s Coulter who profiles as the kind of wideout who might fill (some) of Fuller’s downfield role. At 6’2” and 180 pounds, Coulter has an 80th-percentile 40 time and a 76th-percentile speed score. He had 72 catches for 1,039 yards (14.5 yards per reception) in his final year at Rhode Island, scoring eight times. Beat reporter dispatches all point to Coulter being the next guy up with Stills and Fuller gone.

Cooks, of course, is the less galaxy brain option to stack alongside Watson against the Colts. Cooks could become a legit target hog with Fuller gone. That’s all well and good and could create solid stat lines for Cooks, but his 9.2 yards per target serves as something of a red flag if we’re seeking big plays (Fuller’s yards per target was near 12). Probably Coulter won’t see more than a handful of targets even in sideways game script that pushes Houston into another massively pass-heavy game script. A potential size-speed downfield threat on a team gaining nearly 77% of their yards through the air—the highest rate in the NFL—has tantalizing boom-bust upside for DFS tournament purposes.

It was T.Y. Hilton who had the useful fantasy day last week against the Titans, making the most of his limited opportunity with a 50-yard grab and a short touchdown. But it was Pittman who once again led the Colts receivers in targets—nine, to be exact. Pittman caught just two of those passes for 28 yards, so DFS players should be off the explosive rookie in Week 13. Over the team’s past four games, Pittman leads the Colts with an 18% target share. And now he gets a crack at a depleted Houston secondary struggling with injuries and a PED suspension. No Colts wideout has run as many pass routes over the past four weeks, positioning Pittman as the most likely Indy receiver to bust out against a Texans coverage unit that could give up monster fantasy performances over the season’s final weeks. Pittman’s Week 13 price point does not reflect his potential opportunity—not even close.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings; O/U 52.5

RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($10,500 FD/$9,500 DK)

RB James Robinson, Jaguars ($7,800 FD/$7,300 DK)

Paying more than $10,000 for a running back? In this economy? Well, yes. Assuming Cook plays—head coach Mike Zimmer said Cook is banged up headed into Week 13—he’s in a great spot with DFS players still stinging from his letdown Week 12 performance against Carolina, one of the league’s worst run defenses.

I can report it doesn’t feel great to pay up for a possibly injured running back coming off a down game. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t. Cook still had 18 carries and saw four targets despite playing a meager (for his standards) 63% of the team’s offensive snaps. He has an astounding 44% of the Vikings’ total opportunity (carries plus targets). If Minnesota is going to even approach their Week 13 implied total of 31.5, I have a sneaking suspicion Cook will have something to do with it. His touchdown equity can’t be overstated in this game: Jacksonville allows the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points to opposing backs and 37.9% of touchdowns against the Jags this season have come on the ground—the tenth highest rate. Only three teams see more rushes attempts against them on a weekly basis. Cook is set up for a potentially whacky stat line.

We’ll run it back with the only Jaguar worth running back. Robinson has seen 38% of the team’s total opportunity this season—not bad for an undrafted running back—while taking in 13% of the team’s targets since Week 7. Robinson is the very definition of a workhorse with Chris Thompson sidelined, running a tremendous number of routes—the fourth most among running backs over the past four weeks—and getting nearly every carry in the Jacksonville backfield. It doesn’t really matter that Minnesota is a halfway tough matchup for running backs; volume trumps matchup and Robinson’s opportunity is bigly. 4for4’s floor and ceiling machine gives Robinson the week’s third-highest projected ceiling, behind only Derrick Henry and—you guessed it—Dalvin Cook.

Whether it’s a Vikings blowout victory or a back-and-forth game, Robinson stands to again see a glut of touches.

About Author
'