The Top DFS Contrarian Stacks: Week 5

Oct 03, 2019
The Top DFS Contrarian Stacks: Week 5

When laying out Week 5 NFL DFS contrarian stacks, I’ll be using a combination of our Stack Value Reports and GPP Leverage Scores to find unique stacks that can take down a tournament. I encourage you to read the series on how to win a GPP in the DFS Strategy Hub. You’ll quickly realize that taking down a tournament requires a balance of players ranging from low-owned to chalky.

I like building contrarian stacks around my chalkier core of players because you only have to get one instance correct for it to hit. For example, if we hit on a contrarian quarterback play while having a pass-catcher or two from that same game, the positive correlation of those stacks is technically getting one contrarian play correct despite filling multiple roster slots. I feel this is easier than having a chalkier stack while trying to hit multiple individual low-owned plays throughout the rest of your lineup. Keep in mind that these are contrarian stacks, so you don’t have to use these stacks in a large percentage of lineups to be overweight on the field.

QB/RB1/Opp WR2/Opp TE Stack

QB Kyler Murray ($6,300 DK/$7,400 FD)

RB David Johnson($7.500 DK/$6,800 FD)

WR Auden Tate ($3,500 DK/$5,300 FD)

TE Tyler Eifert ($3,200 DK/$4,600 FD)

This game is not going to fly under the radar, which is the reason for the unconventional game stack. With two defenses that have not been able to limit opponents and two teams that rank inside the top seven in pace, the DFS industry will have plenty of Cardinals-Bengals stacks. However, by using Kyler Murray and David Johnson without a wide receiver or tight end, you ensure a unique lineup. Murray has started to use his legs a little bit—in this instance, we are banking on capturing a rushing touchdown or at least a long run. There has been talk about the signing of Pharoh Cooper to play in the slot role vacated by Christian Kirk, however, I think there's a good possibility David Johnson gets split out a lot against the Bengals as he's just as talented a receiver as he is a runner. Johnson's rushing ability has been scripted out of his games this season as the Cardinals have trailed early in their games. This is the first week in which the Cardinals could be playing with a lead, and Johnson could see some meaningful groundwork. He has at least six targets in three of his four games as well.

Auden Tate has been the Bengals leading receiver for the last two weeks and it was interesting to see Zac Taylor dialing up back shoulder throws from him in the red zone. It was obvious to me on Monday night that they believe Tate can be an impact player. Tate should carry high ownership, but he's good chalk in this pace-up spot for the Bengals with limited receiving options. Getting him in this specific game stack will be key to creating a unique lineup. I'm thankful Tyler Eifert dropped his end zone target last week, because if he had caught it his ownership would also be through the roof this week. We all know the narrative of the Cardinals' defense and how susceptible they are to the tight ends, allowing 20 fantasy points per week to the position. With the lack of value elsewhere on the slate, it's imperative that we hit on the correct near-minimum salary options. Tate and Eifert are my two favorites and this stack is how I'm going to get them in a unique lineup.

QB/WR1/Opp WR1 Stack

QB Philip Rivers ($5,800 DK/$6.600 FD)

WR Keenan Allen ($7,300 DK/$7,500 FD)

WR Emmanuel Sanders ($5,100 DK/$5,600 FD)

Keenan Allen chalk went awry in Week 4, which will lead to suppressed ownership in Week 5. Allen nearly scored twice in the matchup with the Dolphins so he's still being targeted heavily in the red zone. The Chargers will also be without Dontrelle Inman—they are basically falling apart at the seams. Andre Patton could be the second option against the Broncos. Allen should improve on his league-leading 32% market share of targets. Allen has traditionally struggled against this Broncos' defense, and Chris Harris shadowing him won't make things easy. Allen's precise route-running and the fact 12–15 targets are in his range of outcomes makes him worth a shot at his projected ownership. The Broncos didn't record a sack until last week and Bradley Chubb will be out for this game. Rivers will have time to pick apart the secondary in this meeting unlike years past.

On the opposite side of the ball, Emmanuel Sanders is rocking the questionable tag which will keep his ownership at bay as well. Last year, the Chargers had Casey Heyward follow Courtland Sutton, which is why I'm planting my flag in Sanders. Sutton has gotten most of the limelight, probably because everyone has been waiting for this breakout. Sanders actually owns a better air yards share (36% to 34%) and a better target share (23% to 21%). This pivot to Sanders, provided he's not limited by his quad injury, will be massive leverage on the field if he outscores Sutton.

QB/WR1/Opp TE1 Stack

QB Chase Daniel($4,800 DK/$6,500 FD)

WR Allen Robinson ($5,600 DK/$6,900 FD)

TE Darren Waller ($5,000 DK/$6,400 FD)

This game will be played in London between the Bears and the Raiders, but is still on the main slate as it goes off at 1 pm Eastern time. Hear me out on this one. I'm very high on the probability of Allen Robinson having a big fantasy output in this game, yes even with a backup quarterback in London. Those circumstances will limit the exposure that people have to this game as well. Taylor Gabriel is still dealing with a concussion and may not even make the trip overseas, leaving a massive 43% share of Bears' air yards to spread around to the rest of their pass-catchers. Robinson already commands a 25% target share and a 36% share of his team's air yards. He has at least seven targets in his four games this season as well.

Chase Daniel came off the pine and played well in relief of Mitch Trubisky last Sunday, throwing for a touchdown and not turning the ball over. When Daniel had to start two games last season, he averaged 16 fantasy points per start, which will be fine at his price. There is definitely a scenario where he lucks into some touchdown variance against the 21st aFPA quarterback defense in the Raiders and has multiple scores. Darren Waller currently leads all tight ends with a 29% share of team air yards and the highest weighted opportunity score according to airyards.com. We know that he will see his share of targets in this game. Despite the Bears being one of the stingier defenses in the league, defending the pass has been their weaker link. The game script should dictate extra targets in the second half for Waller as we've seen in all the games the Raiders have trailed.

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