Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Ravens at Rams

Nov 25, 2019
Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Ravens at Rams

It's a great Monday Night Football showdown as the defending NFC Champions, the 6-4 Los Angeles Rams are home underdogs with the upstart 8-2 Baltimore Ravens coming to town. Can Lamar Jackson continue his magical season against the Aaron Donald led Rams defense? Jackson will certainly be the most popular play of the evening so the key is going to find how we can differentiate our lineups enough to give us an edge on the field.

Let's break down the game and how we can find that edge.

Injuries

There are no injuries that have DFS implications for tonight's game.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Ravens -3.5 Over/Under 47.5

It's not often you'll see a 6-4 team who played in the Super Bowl the previous season, a home dog, but that's what we have here as Vegas loves Lamar Jackson and the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens to prevail against the Los Angeles Rams in what should be a moderately high-scoring affair. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 10%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 40%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 20%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 10%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 10%
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