DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 9

Oct 31, 2018
DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 9

It's Week 9 of the Air Yards Buy-Low Model!

For new readers, the Buy Low Model looks at players who received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards in the previous three weeks and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The list highlights players who are strong candidates to have a performance spike in the near future.

This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.62, a very solid number.

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In GPPs you need to look beyond the median projections and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart and put up crooked numbers. Here is a list of receivers and tight ends who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even Week 9.

Air Yards Week 9 Buy Lows
Player Predicted FP Actual FP Diff.
Jarvis Landry 13.7 13.6 -0.1
Doug Baldwin 10.8 9.9 -1.0
Josh Gordon 10.8 10.5 -0.3
Willie Snead 10.6 9.6 -1.0
Robby Anderson 10.4 7.2 -3.2
Golden Tate 10.1 9.8 -0.3
Jordan Reed 10.0 8.6 -1.4
Jermaine Kearse 9.5 8.1 -1.3
Jimmy Graham 9.4 9.3 -0.2
Donte Moncrief 9.3 8.0 -1.3
James O'Shaughnessy 9.1 8.6 -0.5
Josh Doctson 8.4 7.4 -1.0
Damion Ratley 7.7 7.5 -0.1
Antonio Callaway 7.6 6.6 -1.0
TreQuan Smith 7.4 6.1 -1.3
Charles Clay 7.1 5.7 -1.5
Allen Hurns 7.1 6.2 -0.9
Corey Davis 7.0 3.7 -3.3

Key Takeaways

  • Jarvis Landry ($6,500 DK/$6,600 FD) blew up last time he was on the list in Week 7 and found himself in the DK Milly Maker winning lineup. His Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) over the past three weeks is massive at 0.71. He's seen 32 percent of the Brown's targets and 34 percent of their air yards. There is a new unknown in his forecast in the form of freshly minted OC Freddie Kitchens, but in the past, changes in regime and even QB haven't affected how a player on this list has performed. At just $6,600 on FD, Landry is a bargain.
  • Josh Gordon ($6,300 DK/$6,900 FD) is on the list for the first time this year. He was an end-of-season darling in 2017 and made the buy low quite a few times to close out last year. He leads the Patriots in WOPR over the past three games at 0.50 and has seen 19 percent of the team's targets and 30 percent of the air yards. He was supposed to be disciplined for being late this past week, but it never materialized, and neither did the Patriot's passing offense against the lowly Bills. This may be his week.
  • Robby Anderson ($4,300 DK/$5,200 FD) is dealing with an ankle injury and did not participate in Wednesday's practice. However, if he is able to go this week he stands an excellent shot of outperforming expectations. A massive 42 percent of the Jets' air yards were directed towards him in Weeks 6 and 7.
  • TreQuan Smith ($4,200 DK/$5,100 FD) is on the list for the first time this season. In the past three weeks, he's seen 19 percent of the team's targets and 29 percent of New Orleans' air yards. Michael Thomas is the unquestioned alpha in the passing game, but there is room for Smith to have a spike game, and his volume is high enough that his floor is probably well over what it will cost to roster him. Matt Harmon pounded the table for him last week and may have just been a week too early.

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images.

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