DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 4
Each week I'll be posting the results of my Air Yards Buy-Low model in this space. The Buy-Low model looks at players who received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The model helps us do just that.
In GPPs, especially, you need to look beyond the scores and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart. Here is a list of receivers and running backs who have underperformed their volume thus far in 2018 that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.
|Name||Predicted FP||Week 3 FP||Diff.|
- Allen Robinson ($5,900 DK/$6,500 FD) makes a return appearance on the buy-low list. This time he's at the top, and he belongs there this week. Robinson's projected ownership is relatively high at 13 percent on DK and 8 percent on FD, but this is not something that should put you off him. He has a 26 percent target share and has seen 43 percent of Chicago's air yards. He's due for a TD, and there is reason to like the matchup against Tampa Bay. I fade almost all defensive metrics, but there is one I do pay attention to—pressure allowed by an o-line and pressure applied by a d-line. Chicago allows relatively little pressure, and Tampa Bay applies relatively little of their own. This means that Trubisky will have a clean pocket to throw from, which we know is both the most effective way to pass, and also the easiest to predict. ARob looks like a smash play this week to me.
- Amari Cooper ($5,600 DK/$6,600 FD) is slightly cheaper on DK and may end up lowered owned than ARob. Jordy Nelson—a preseason favorite of mine—crushed it last week and the public will probably follow the points (and they may not be wrong to do so), which could leave Amari the forgotten man. Again, though, the one defensive metric I've found that is actually predictive has the OAK/CLE game as the single best game on the slate for passing offense. OAK allows the least pressure in the league through three games and CLE has been one of the worst at applying pressure. The combination of these two factors bodes extremely well for Carr and his receivers. Both the OAK and CLE passing offenses should have a good day, despite the low 45-point total from Vegas.
- Kelvin Benjamin ($3,600 DK/$5,200 FD) is dirt cheap and Josh Allen has shown that playing defensive matchups in DFS doesn't work (see above for the exception). Eventually, some of those Allen air yards will end up in KD's hands, and a score will likely accompany them.
- Courtland Sutton ($3,400 DK/$4,700 FD) remains on the list for the second consecutive week. He disappointed last week, but this was largely due to the fact that only 15 targets were directed at wide receivers. Sutton saw three, caught two, and still has the highest aDOT among the big three WRs on Denver. I would keep riding him until the opportunity declines or he blows up for a long TD, whichever comes first.
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