DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 17

Dec 27, 2018

The Week 17 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

RB Saquon Barkley ($8,500 FD/$8,200 DK)

Barkley is by far the best bet of the stud running backs to hit the coveted 30 fantasy points this week. Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley are all in jeopardy of not playing normal snaps or sitting the entire game completely. Barkley and Baker Mayfield are battling it out for the rookie of the year award and the chatter recently is that Baker is leading the charge. I think the Giants come out with the goal of getting Barkley the distinguished honor of the top newcomer. He will get to face a Cowboys' defense that should either pull it's starters early or not even send them out there at the start. Either way, his elite usage both in the run game and catching the football make him a weekly, matchup-proof stud. You're going to need to own a lot of him, or perhaps even make him the only stud you pay up for at running back to be overweight, but he's got the best odds of paying off.