DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 5

Oct 05, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

The Packers/Cowboys game is the only game on the main slate with an over/under above 50 points, so it’s no surprise that ownership will be concentrated there—combined, Green Bay and Dallas could eclipse 100% total ownership between their passing games alone. Jordy Nelson is the only receiver expected to be chalk on both sites, while Dez Bryant is expected to match Jordy’s ownership on DraftKings. The Sunday night game looks like it’s off the DK main slate for good, but DeAndre Hopkins is expected to be highly owned on FanDuel, while Odell Beckham rounds out the chalk on DK. With the most popular plays of the week near the top of salary lists, rostering one of the few high-priced receivers remaining could make for a nice pivot in GPPs, while going to other pricing tiers will lead to a unique roster composition.

In the three complete games that he’s played in this year, Jordy has seen at least seven targets and scored at least once, including back-to-back two-touchdown games. He’s scored on four of his five red zone looks and teams are throwing over 70% of the time against the Cowboys in the red zone. Of course, Nelson’s current scoring pace is unsustainable and teams have converted just 18% of red zone passes into scores against Dallas through four weeks.
Dallas has the highest implied team total of the week and only two players have seen more red zone targets than Dez Bryant, who’s averaging 10 targets per game and accounting for just under 29% of all Cowboys targets. Even more important than Dez’ red zone targets are the fact that six of those have come from inside the 10-yard line. While this game does have huge touchdown potential, the Packers have allowed just two touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
Odell Beckham has seen at least 13 targets in his last two games and his target share has increased every week. The Giants have the highest relative team total of the week, projected to score nearly 9.5 points over their point-per-game average against a Chargers defense that ranks 20th in wide receiver aFPA. While the Giants are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, they’ve thrown on just 53% of red zone plays and opposing offenses have thrown at the third-lowest rate in the red zone against the Chargers.
After getting Belichick’d in Week 3, Hopkins was back to his target-monster ways in Week 4, accounting for 35% of Houston’s targets against the Titans. The Chiefs only rank 19th in wide receiver aFPA, but they rank fourth against quarterbacks and Houston’s offensive line has one of the highest adjusted sack rates in the league. Getting pressure on Deshaun Watson could make it difficult for Hopkins to see many quality targets.