DFS Running Back Analysis: Divisional Round Edition

Jan 11, 2018
DFS Running Back Analysis: Divisional Round Edition

Here is my breakdown on the DFS-relevant running backs in Week 19, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge for this week's slate of games. Much like last week, we expect ownership to be relatively flat this week, so I will divide RBs up by stud/mid-range/value, disregarding the usual chalk tier.


LeVeon Bell is the clear stud this week. I see most people pairing him with an underpriced Derrick Henry on FanDuel or a mid-range option on DraftKings. That leaves us a few studs to leverage the field with (especially Mark Ingram on FanDuel) in large-field tournaments.

  • LeVeon Bell (9600/9400) has the best matchup of any running back on this slate versus the Jaguars, who rank 24th in running back aFPA and allow one rushing TD per game to opposing running backs over the past four weeks. The Steelers carry a relatively high implied team total (24.25) and are large (7.5-point) home favorites, which puts Bell in an ideal position to realize his multi-touchdown upside. Even though Bell has the most expensive salary on the slate, he projects to be the highest-owned running back, with a 40% ownership projection on both sites.
  • Leonard Fournette (6900/7900) was out-rushed by teammate Blake Bortles last week, averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry versus a Bills defense that had been extremely friendly to running backs this season. The volume was still there, though, as Fournette touched the ball 24 times while backfield mate Chris Ivory did so just once. Recency bias from last week's game might help keep Fournette's ownership relatively suppressed, providing leverage on a slate in which ownership would typically be flat.
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