DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 16

Dec 20, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Chalk

The two most expensive tight ends on the main slate project to be the most popular options this week. On DraftKings, both chalk tight ends are priced well above the field, so fading the chalk will lead to a different lineup construction compared to lineups that opt for the most popular plays.

Rob Gronkowski ($8,400 FD/$7,400 DK) has seen at least 28% of the Patriots targets in each of his last three games, including at least 37% of targets in each of the last two. No team is projected to score more points than New England this week, and the Pats are favored by 11.5 at home against the Bills. Add in Gronk’s 19 red zone targets and it’s clear why he is projected as the top value at his position on both sites. His lofty price tag could potentially lower the overall floor of lineups in cash games.
Facing a Dolphins defense ranked 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to tight ends, Travis Kelce ($7,000/$6,900) projects as a top-two FanDuel value at his position. Kansas City is a 10-point home favorite with an implied point total over 26 and no team has allowed a higher passing touchdown rate in the red zone this year than Miami. While Kansas City has the fifth-highest red zone passing rate in the league, since Matt Nagy took over play-calling duties, the Chiefs have thrown 58.6% of the time inside the 20, the 12th-highest rate in that span.