Fantasy Upside
Tyreek Hill avoided suspension, which means he’s on pace to play a full season (barring injuries). Hill has been a star ever since joining the league, but he really shined in 2018 with Patrick Mahomes as his QB. Hill had a career season, catching 87 passes for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns, all career highs. He led all receivers in fantasy points scored last season, and there’s really no reason why he can’t do it again. He had six games with 100+ receiving yards last year, and can be the sole reason your team wins on any given week.
Fantasy Downside
Although Hill avoided suspension, for now, there’s always the risk something new could rise up and cause the NFL to take action. Whether it be a new case entirely, or new evidence in the previous case that forces the league to punish him. Also, you probably want to draft Hill with the expectation he does what he did a year ago, but a slight decline should be expected. If Sammy Watkins can stay healthy, he was a sneakily good player in 2018. Kansas City also drafted Mecole Hardman in the second round, giving the team more weapons than it had in 2018.
2019 Bottom Line
If Hill avoids injury and league discipline, he should easily finish as a top 10 or top-five receiver. His top-end speed and Mahomes’ deep ball is like a match made in heaven. He carries some off-field risk, but with the league already making its decision, it seems unlikely anything else happens. He was surprisingly consistent in 2018, with just one game falling below 50 scrimmage yards (and even then he had 41). He should be taken within the first two rounds of drafts.
Week 19 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Tyreek Hill finished the season with another 100-yard effort in Week 17. He had six 100-yard games in 2018 as he led the league with eight receptions over 40 yards. He's a threat to break it big in any game, which is why he remains at the top of the wide receiver rankings. Plus, his floor isn't bad either as he had 50 or more receiving yards in every game but two this season. He doesn't get a great matchup against the Colts this week, but we still like him as an elite WR option in fantasy.
Week 17 vs. Oakland Raiders
Tyreek Hill went 4-74 last week, giving him 50+ yards in all but two games this season. Although he did fail to score for the fourth straight game after scoring 11 times in his first 11 outings. He gets a decent matchup against the Raiders this week, although when he faced them earlier he had his worst game of the season (1-13). We still like him as a WR1, however, as he's bound to go off at any moment.
Week 16 at Seattle Seahawks
Tyreek Hill went 4-46 last week as he's now had two of his worst games in the last three weeks. Of course, sandwiched between those games is a 139-yard effort, so let's not get too worried. Hill is an explosive player, and sometimes he'll get shut down. It's just part of the game. But he's still one of the few receivers who can go off for 100+ yards against any team. We like him as a strong WR1 against the Seahawks this week.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Adam Schefter says Tyreek Hill will play on Thursday despite lingering heel and wrist injuries. He did practice some this week, so the injury isn't considered to be too serious. He looked fine last week when he caught eight passes for 139 yards.
Hill gets a tough matchup against the Chargers this week, but he didn't have any trouble against them earlier in the year. In Week 1, Hill went off 169 yards and two receiving touchdowns while also returning a punt for a score. Hill should be fine as a WR1 this week.
Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Tyreek Hill had his worst game of the season last week, finishing with just one catch for 13 yards (he added 37 yards on the ground). He had six targets in the game, and was close to scoring on a long catch twice, but couldn't connect on either. It was the only game this season where Hill didn't have at least 50 receiving yards.
Hill gets a tough matchup against the Ravens this week, but it's hard to count him out. Hill can put up WR1 numbers on a single play on any given week. He should be viewed as a low-end WR1 this week against Baltimore.
Week 13 at Oakland Raiders
Tyreek Hill continued his great season by finishing with 215 yards on 10 catches last week while finding the end zone twice. He's now incredibly averaging five receptions, 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown per game. He's had some games that skew that average a bit, but Hill has had at least 50 yards in every game, so even when he's bad, he's good.
He gets a good matchup against the Raiders this week. On paper, Oakland hasn't allowed many fantasy points to wideouts, but that's because they're league-worst in rush defense. Oakland's pass defense isn't special, and Hill should have no problem having another big day. He's a must-start WR1 option.
Week 11 at Los Angeles Rams
Tyreek Hill exploded last week, setting team highs in targets (10), receptions (7), yards (117) and touchdowns (2). It was the speedster's third 100-yard game of the season, the fifth game with 7+ receptions and third game with multiple touchdowns. Even when he doesn't have a monster game, he's had at least 50 yards in every game this season, so there's a pretty high floor for Hill.
He gets a great matchup this week against the Rams who have been known to give up big pass plays, the exact type of plays Hill is so good at making. L.A. has allowed a league-high 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards this season. We like Hill as a strong WR1 this week.
Week 10 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Tyreek Hill didn't go wild last week, but he had a solid 4-69 game. He also added 16 rushing yards on two carries. Hill has had 50+ yards in every game this season, and 60+ yards in five straight games. He has eight total touchdowns, but they've come in four games. Hill is consistent when he's "bad," but when he's good he really goes off.
Hill does get a tough matchup this week against Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed just five receiving scores to wideouts this season, which ties for the least in the league. Arizona has also given up just 20 pass plays of 20 or more yards, which is second fewest in the league, making it hard for Hill to make a big play.
We still like him given the high ceiling he's provided this season. He can be viewed as a WR1 option. He could get more looks with Sammy Watkins likely out of the lineup as well.
Week 9 at Cleveland Browns
Tyreek Hill didn't have a monster day last week, but he got enough done with three receptions for 70 yards (on four targets). He continued his streak of having 50 or more yards in every game this season, making the speedster a surprisingly reliable option. He did suffer a groin injury in Week 8, and was limited in practice Thursday.
Assuming he's healthy enough to play, Hill gets a decent matchup against the Browns in Week 9. There are no obvious stats that makes this is a great play for Hill, but there's also nothing making it a bad play. Expect Hill to keep producing like he usually does, as he can be viewed as a WR1 choice.
