Fantasy Upside
Tyreek Hill set a career-high with 15 receiving touchdowns last season, and he didn’t stop there as he added another two scores on the ground. He even spread the scoring around as there were only three games he didn’t score in. Not only was he consistent in scoring, but he had a stable output of production as he finished with at least 50 receiving yards in all but two games, and at least five receptions in nine games (he played in 15). With Patrick Mahomes at QB and no other receiving threats brought in this season, Hill’s production should stay strong in 2021.
Fantasy Downside
Hill’s 17 touchdown pace from 2020 is going to be difficult to replicate, even for a player with his talents. After all, he did finish the Chiefs’ three postseason games without a score. The Chiefs also lost Sammy Watkins in the offseason, bumping fellow speedster Mecole Hardman up the depth chart. It’ll be interesting to see if having another fast receiver on the field more often (Hardman didn’t play more than 70% of the offensive snaps in any game last year) affects Hill at all.
2021 Bottom Line
Hill is a pretty safe choice as the top receiver off the board. Including the playoffs, Hill had at least 10 targets in 10 games (out of 18) last season. He was a bit of an inconsistent player at the start of his career, but he changed all of that last season. He may not replicate his touchdown pace from a year ago, but he’s still one of the most productive receivers out there. He’s worthy of a first-round pick.
Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Tyreek Hill played a season-low 64% last week as he finished 4-65 on six targets. Hill may play a season-low of 0% in Week 17 as the Chiefs rest their starters. Nothing official has been said about Hill, but the Chiefs are resting Patrick Mahomes. It's also noteworthy that Hill is dealing with a hamstring injury that left him sidelined in practice both Wednesday and Thursday. With nothing to gain in Week 17, it seems highly likely Hill won't play this week.
Week 16 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tyreek Hill scored a touchdown yet again last week, finishing 6-53-1 on 10 targets. Hill is averaging over a touchdown per game, and only has two games this year where he failed to score. Even if he wasn't scoring at an insane rate, Hill is averaging 5.9 receptions and 95.3 scrimmage yards per game. As if that wasn't good enough, he even gets a favorable matchup against the Falcons (No. 32 aFPA) in Week 16. Hill is an easy, must-start WR1 this week.
Week 15 at New Orleans Saints
Tyreek Hill continued his absolutely insane season by scoring twice last week, adding 111 scrimmage yards. Hill has scored 16 total touchdowns this season, but even more impressive is the fact there have only been two games where he hasn't scored. As if that wasn't enough, Hill also has six 100-yard games this season. And if THAT wasn't enough, he's averaging 5.9 receptions per game. Hill shines in every category, and that's why he's a must-start WR1 in Week 15. The Saints are a tough matchup, as they've allowed the third-fewest receptions to WRs this season, but Hill is a matchup-proof player.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill had two touchdowns called back last week, and he now has two games on the season without a score. So clearly he should be released in all formats. Jokes aside, despite the two scores called back, Hill still had a strong game. He finished 6-58 as a receiver, and even added 30 more yards on a carry, giving him 88 scrimmage yards. Hill now has 80+ yards in all but four games this season. Also, Hill had 11 targets last week, and is now averaging 14.5 targets over his past four games. He gets a somewhat tough matchup against Xavien Howard and the Dolphins this week, but Hill has been so dominant this season that his matchups are mostly irrelevant. Start Hill with confidence as a WR1 in Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Tyreek Hill got off to an insane start last week, picking up 200 yards in the first quarter. He finished sixth in most fantasy points ever in a game by a wide receiver (standard scoring) by finishing 13-269-3 (on 15 targets). Hill is now averaging an absurd 1.3 touchdowns per game this season, scoring in every game but one with three multi-score games (all of which have come in the last four weeks). Hill does draw a fairly tough matchup this week against the Broncos (No. 8 aFPA), who have allowed the sixth-fewest total receiving yards to WRs this season. But Hill had a solid 6-55-1 stat line against Denver the last time he played there. Also, he's coming off of a historic game so there's no way you even consider benching Hill this week. He's a must-start WR1.
Week 12 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tyreek Hill saw another target-heavy game last week. In back-to-back games, Hill has seen 18 targets and 14 targets. In Week 11, Hill made use of nearly every target, finishing with 11 receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown (his second-straight game with 100+ yards). Hill has had a truly incredible season, scoring a touchdown in every game but one. Hill gets a fine matchup in Week 12 against the Bucs, who have given up the fifth-most total receptions, and eighth-most total receiving yards to WRs this season. Hill is an easy must-start WR1 this week.
Week 11 at Las Vegas Raiders
Tyreek Hill saw an absurd 18 targets the last time the Chiefs played, finishing 9-113-2 in his most productive game of the season. Hill has been truly remarkable this season, scoring 10 times in nine games. There's only been one game where he's finished with no touchdowns this season. On top of the touchdowns, Hill is also averaging 4.9 receptions and 72.2 receiving yards per game. This week he'll face the Raiders, a team he finished with 93 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against earlier in the year. Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 11.
Week 9 vs. Carolina Panthers
Tyreek Hill has managed to do a lot with a little this season. Despite being 21st in the league in targets (54), Hill is second among receivers in fantasy points this season. That's mostly due to his league-leading seven touchdowns, as Hill has scored in every game but two this season. But he's more than an endzone threat, topping 50 yards in six games (out of eight). He gets a tough matchup against the Panthers (No. 1 aFPA) this week. Carolina has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving touchdowns (5) to receivers this year, so Hill may struggle to find the endzone. Still, Hill has been so productive, he should be viewed as a must-start WR1 play this week.
Week 8 vs. New York Jets
Patrick Mahomes only threw the ball 23 times last week, and 10 of those pass attempts went in Hill's direction. As a result, Hill had a solid 6-55-1 outing last week (setting a season-high in receptions). Hill has scored a touchdown in all but one game this season, making him a consistent, reliable option. He gets a favorable matchup against a bad Jets defense this week and should be viewed as a must-start WR1 option. Even if the Chiefs end up running the ball more due to a blowout, Hill has a strong chance of scoring a touchdown early.
