Week 6 vs. Carolina Panthers
Tyreek Hill had yet another huge performance last week as he caught eight passes for 181 yards with a touchdown on nine targets. He reached a max speed of 22 mph on one play, although he amazingly was unable to score on that play. Hill has shined in favorable matchups this season, with his only sub-100 yard games coming against the Bills and Patriots. Hill doesn't draw a great matchup this week as the Panthers are 7th in aFPA to WRs, but we aren't too concerned. Hill is the WR1 in half-PPR through five weeks, so he's definitely someone you want in your lineup. He's a must-start player in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. New York Giants
Tyreek Hill didn't do a whole lot in Week 4 as he saw just five targets, finishing 3-58-0. He also added a run of 14 yards. While it's not the type of performance you drafted Hill for, 72 scrimmage yards isn't terrible. Especially against a good Bills defense. He gets a better matchup on paper this week against the Giants. The Giants have actually been fairly stingy when it comes to allowing fantasy points to WRs this season (10th aFPA), but their defense as a whole is giving up the 3rd-most points per game (30.5). Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 5.
Week 4 at Buffalo Bills
Tyreek Hill saw a team-high 11 targets last week as he finished with a stat line of 9-157-1. Hill has scored in every game this season, and has an average of 137.3 yards per game. He's currently on pace to reach the 2,000 yard mark he said he was going to hit, but we also have a lot of the season still left to play. This week, Hill draws a tough matchup against a Bills defense allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Last season against Buffalo, Hill finished 2-33 and 9-69-1. While the matchup isn't ideal, Hill is a player who should be viewed as matchup proof. He's a must-start WR1 in Week 4.
Week 3 vs Denver Broncos
Tyreek Hill saw a team-high nine targets in Week 2 as he finished 5-40-1. It was a good showcase of even when Hill has an off-game, he's still very productive. We'd expect Hill to continue to lead the way in targets in Week 3, especially if Jaylen Waddle is unable to play with a concussion. Hill also popped up on the injury report this week with an ankle injury, but he's expected to play unless something drastic changes. Hill will draw a tough matchup in Week 3 against Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos, but we'd trust Mike McDaniel to scheme his way around it. Hill should be viewed as a must-start option at wide receiver this week.
Week 2 at New England Patriots
Tyreek Hill followed up his ridiculous 2022 season with a monster game in Week 1. Hill finished with a stat line of 11-215-2 on a league-high (tied) 15 targets. This week, Hill faces a fairly tough Patriots defense. In two games vs. the Patriots last season, Hill finished 8-94 and 4-55 (the second game was without Tua Tagovailoa). Given Hill's success in Week 1, and last season, there should be no doubt about him. He should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 2.
Week 1 at Los Angeles Chargers
Tyreek Hill is coming off of a career year in his first season with the Dolphins, which is saying a lot considering the success he had with the Chiefs. Hill is on a mission to become the first WR to get to 2,000 receiving yards in a season, and he'll begin with a Week 1 matchup vs. the Chargers. The Chargers were tough on WRs last season, giving up the 8th-fewest average fantasy points to the position. But Hill put up a nice stat line of 4-81-1 when he played them in Week 14. It's not an ideal matchup, but Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 this week.
Fantasy Upside
Tyreek Hill’s first season in Miami was a huge success as he set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710). He averaged an absurd 100 yards per game, and did it despite Miami having some slight QB injury issues. He was extremely consistent as well, catching at least four passes in all but two games and had 70+ receiving yards in all but six games. Heading into 2023, Hill is once again on pace to have a productive season. There were no major changes to his role, and if anything he could improve on his numbers if QB Tua Tagovailoa is able to play a full season.
Fantasy Downside
Hill had such a strong season in 2022 that it may lead fantasy owners to be slightly disappointed if he doesn’t match that in 2023. Our current projections have him finishing below the marks he set last season in receptions and receiving yards. Hill will enter the upcoming season at 29 years old, and it’s worth noting that since 2000, only eight WRs have hit 20+ PPR points per game at that age. There are also a few external factors to worry about. Hill will need to hope Tagovailoa stays healthy if he wants to maintain that elite production, which is a concern given the QB’s concussion history. Hill also got into an alleged altercation where he was investigated for assault. While no charges were filed, there’s a small chance the NFL steps in with a suspension.
2023 Bottom Line
Hill was one of the best fantasy options at any position last year, and everything is in place for him to have another productive season. Hill has declared he will be the first player in NFL history to get 2,000 receiving yards in a season this season, which is entirely possible when you look at what he did a year ago. While fantasy managers shouldn’t expect 2,000 yards, they should know the ceiling for Hill certainly reaches that realm of production. Hill should be viewed as a top five wide receiver for 2023, and is worthy of a first-round pick.
Week 17 at New England Patriots
Tyreek Hill had a quiet 100-yard game last week as he finished 4-103 on six targets. He frustrated fantasy owners everywhere as he fell one yard shy of the end zone on a long catch. This week he'll be paired up with Teddy Bridgewater as Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out. But that shouldn't concern fantasy owners as Hill was QB proof earlier in the year with Bridgewater and even Skylar Thompson. This week, Hill faces a Patriots team he saw all the way back in Week 1 when he finished 8-94 on 12 targets. Despite a new QB, fantasy owners should still like Hill and view him as a must-start WR1 in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Green Bay Packers
Tyreek Hill led the Dolphins in targets last week with 13, which gives him nine games (out of 14) with at least 10 targets. Hill turned those targets into production, finishing 9-69-1. Hill has now scored a touchdown in five of his last six games. There's not much more to say about Hill, who is having a ridiculously productive season. He gets an OK matchup vs. the Packers this week (12th aFPA), but Hill is matchup proof at this point. He should be viewed as a must-start option at WR in Week 16.
Week 15 at Buffalo Bills
Tyreek Hill led the Dolphins with 10 targets last week, and finished 4-81-1. He also scored an additional touchdown on a fumble recovery, leading to an overall great performance. Hill has now scored five touchdowns in his last five games, and has topped 80 receiving yards in four of those. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Hill faces the Bills this week, a team he had his worst game of the season against earlier in the year, catching just two passes for 33 yards. While that's not ideal, it shouldn't be enough to scare you off. Hill's production this year has been too good to start getting worried now. Plus, Buffalo's defense has given up the 6th-most average fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks. Hill should be trusted as a must-start WR1 option in Week 15.
