Week 10 @ Las Vegas Raiders
Tyreek Hill struggled to get open against the Packers as he finished 4-37 on a team-high 11 targets. He also ran backward for four yards on a carry. Even though he didn't have much production, this was Hill's fifth game in his last six outings with at least 11 targets. Hill usually is able to convert on more of those as he had a 71.1% catch percentage heading into Week 9. Hill could struggle again this week as he gets a tough matchup against the Raiders who are allowing the third-fewest aFPA to WRs. Despite the tough matchup, we still like Hill as a must-start WR1 in Week 10. He has a high ceiling, and the fact he's second in the NFL in targets means he usually has a high floor as well.
Week 9 vs. Green Bay Packers
Tyreek Hill saw an absurd 18 targets last week, finishing 12-94-1. Instead of using Hill as a deep threat, the Chiefs have been feeding Hill on much shorter routes this season. His YPC (11.5) is three yards fewer than last year, and the lowest of his career outside of his rookie season. And three of his four career games with his most receptions have happened this year. This isn't a bad thing, and in fact, is a great thing if you're in PPR leagues. It's even benefitted him in standard leagues as Hill is almost matching his career-high in receiving yards per game (91.9). All of that is a long-winded way of saying Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 9 vs. the Packers. It's a good-enough matchup (15th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs), and Hill has been extremely productive all year long. Start him with confidence.
Week 8 vs. New York Giants
Tyreek Hill had an OK game last week considering Patrick Mahomes' struggles. Hill still managed 6-49 on nine targets while rushing for an additional 18 to give him 67 scrimmage yards. He's had at least 65 scrimmage yards in all but one game this year, making him a pretty consistent option. Hill gets a solid matchup against the Giants this week who are 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. We'd expect Hill's production to be closer to his 90-yard average this week, making him a must-start WR1.
Week 7 at Tennessee Titans
Tyreek Hill saw a team-high 12 targets last week, finishing 9-76-1. It's the fourth time (in six games) this season Hill has seen at least 12 targets as he continues to be one of the top options for Patrick Mahomes. Hill is averaging a ridiculous receiving stat line of 7.7-98.7-0.8. And we wouldn't expect that production to dip too much this week in a favorable matchup against the Titans who are 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The Titans are last (or tied for last) in allowing the most receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Hill is already a must-start WR1 on a weekly basis, but fantasy owners should expect a big game from the productive wideout in Week 7.
Week 6 at Washington Football Team
Tyreek Hill saw a team-high 13 targets last week, finishing 7-63-0. While it's a wild game we can sometimes expect from Hill, it's still a solid outing in what was a really tough matchup. He's had at least five receptions and 50+ yards in all but one game this season, providing a solid 10+ point floor in PPR formats. He's also had a rushing attempt in all but one game this year. We can expect a potential 100-yard game from Hill this week as he draws a favorable matchup against Washington, who is 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Washington has actually allowed the second-most receptions to receivers so far this year. Hill will be a must-start WR1 in Week 6, but keep an eye on his quad injury.
Week 5 vs. Buffalo Bills
After a two-game slump (at least by his standards), Tyreek Hill came out with a huge performance in Week 4, finishing 11-186-3 on 12 targets. Hill is prone to having those types of games, and it's why he's someone you want in your lineup every week. Even this week despite a tough matchup against the Bills. Buffalo has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers as wideouts struggle to gain yards or touchdowns. Collective wide receivers are averaging under 100 yards against Buffalo, and have scored one total touchdown all year. It's a tough matchup, but Hill should still be viewed as a must-start player in Week 5.
Week 4 at Philadelphia Eagles
Tyreek Hill had an OK outing last week, finishing 5-56 on seven targets. He also had a carry for 11 yards, which is an interesting note because Hill has had one carry in every game so far this season. Hill came out with a strong Week 1 performance but has cooled off a bit since then. That cold streak could continue this week in a tough matchup against Darius Slay and the Eagles. Philly has given up the fewest receiving yards to wideouts this season and only given up two touchdowns to the position. Still, despite the tough matchup, Hill is someone you want in your lineup on a weekly basis. He's a must-start option in Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns last week, but Tyreek Hill's stat line was unimpressive, finishing 3-14 on four targets. He also had one carry for 15 yards. It was an extremely rare down game for Hill. In fact, it's the first time he's finished below 20 receiving yards (while playing significant minutes) since Week 12 in 2018. He should bounce back this week, although it's tough to predict a monster game from him as he gets a tough matchup against the Chargers. Hill had solid overall numbers in his game vs. the Chargers last year (5-99-1) although the bulk of that was off of one play, a 54-yard touchdown. Even though he's coming off a bad game and gets a tough matchup, Hill is a must-start WR in fantasy.
Week 2 @ Baltimore Ravens
Tyreek Hill proved he's still one of the best players in fantasy, finishing 11-192-1 on a team-high 15 targets in Week 1. Since 2018, Hill has scored 38 touchdowns in 44 games played, which nearly comes out to an average of a score every game. And in that 44 game span, Hill has 12 100-yard games, which is about 30%. It's hard to find someone as productive, and as consistent, as Hill in fantasy. He should be viewed as a must-start WR in Week 2, especially in a favorable matchup against the Ravens.
Week 1 vs. Cleveland Browns
Tyreek Hill is coming off of an incredible season where he finished with 17 total touchdowns (15 receiving, 2 rushing), a career-high. Perhaps better than his total numbers was the fact he was incredibly consistent, finishing with at least 50 yards and a touchdown in all but five games. There's no reason to expect a major fall in production from Hill, so he should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in a favorable matchup against the Browns in Week 1.
