Week 7 at Denver Broncos
Tyreek Hill had easily his worst game of the season last week, finishing with 20 yards on three receptions (three targets) and one rush for five yards. Hill was affected by the Chiefs' run-heavy gameplan, which saw Patrick Mahomes finish with a season-low 26 pass attempts. We'd expect the Chiefs to throw more often this week as the Broncos' tough run defense will force their hand. Considering Hill started the season with touchdowns in four games, we wouldn't be concerned about his value moving forward. Hill is still a WR1 play, and should be viewed as such against the Broncos (No. 17 aFPA) in Week 7.
Week 6 at Buffalo Bills
Tyreek Hill didn't catch a touchdown last week, but he did run one in as he continues his impressive streak of scoring in each game this season. He had a season-low three receptions, but it didn't matter as Hill finished with 93 scrimmage yards and a score. Interestingly enough, Hill has seen exactly six targets in four of his five games this season, so don't expect any high-catch games from Hill. But those aren't needed if he's finding the endzone each week. Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 6 as he gets a favorable matchup against the Bills.
Week 5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Tyreek Hill had another strong performance last week, finishing 4-64-1 on six targets. He's scored in every game this season while also averaging 80 yards. It's hard to find this level of consistency in fantasy, and it's why Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 on a weekly basis. He doesn't get a strong matchup this week against the Raiders, but Las Vegas is far from being a shutdown defense. Hill should have no problem continuing his dominant season in Week 5. Put him in your lineups.
Week 4 vs. Patriots
Tyreek Hill had yet another productive game in Week 3, finishing 5-77-1 on six targets. He's now caught five passes and scored in every single game this season, which is a pretty incredible baseline. While it'd be foolish to expect him to score every single week, he clearly has a chance of finding the endzone during every game this season. He'll face a Patriots defense that has surprisingly not been tough on receivers (No. 22 aFPA) so far this season. Even if it was a bad matchup, it'd be foolish to consider benching someone as productive as Hill. Start him as your WR1 with confidence.
Week 3 at Baltimore Ravens
Tyreek Hill is off to a strong start in 2020, catching touchdowns in each of his first two games. He did more than just catch a touchdown in Week 2, also adding 99 yards on five receptions. He also saw a team-high 11 targets. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Ravens, but that shouldn't concern fantasy owners too much. Hill should still be viewed as a must-start WR1. He's had at least five receptions in nine of his last 10 regular season games (excluding the game where he only played seven snaps). It's hard to find that kind of consistency in a receiver.
Week 2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Tyreek Hill started 2020 with what would have been his worst game in 2019 (aside from injury games). But even in a "bad" game, Hill finished 5-46-1 on six targets. He may have another subpar performance in Week 2 as he draws a tough matchup against the Chargers. Hill had his second-lowest yardage output against the Chargers last season (in non-injury games), but still turned in a decent 4-61-0 performance. In other words, even when Hill is bad, he's good. And his ceiling makes him worthy of starting every week. He should be viewed as a WR1 this week, even in a tough matchup against the Chargers.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
In the 10 games where Tyreek Hill played at least 20% of the offensive snaps, he finished with 5+ receptions and 50+ receiving yards in nine of them. He also scored in half (5) of those games. In other words, Hill is much more than just a one big play receiver. But his ability to score those long touchdowns with his speed put him in an elite category. He faces the Texans this week, a team he finished 5-80-2 against in the regular season last year. He's a player with a high floor and an even higher ceiling. Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 against Houston.
Fantasy Upside
Tyreek Hill may have finished as the No. 30 WR (half-PPR) last season, but he was No. 10 in average fantasy points per game. And that includes two games where he played fewer than 20% of the snaps and two games without Patrick Mahomes at QB. In the games where he played fully with Mahomes at QB (including playoffs), Hill put up elite numbers: 15.0 fantasy points per game. He was also incredibly consistent, finishing with 50+ receiving yards in every game he played at least 20% of the snaps. That’s an extremely high floor, especially for someone who scores as often as Hill (20 times in last 28 regular season games).
Fantasy Downside
Hill missed a pair of games in 2019 due to injury, so his durability is always a concern. The Chiefs also draw a tough schedule in 2020 — facing the Patriots, Bills, Chargers (twice) and Ravens, who all finished inside the top six in pass defense last year (yards allowed).
2020 Bottom Line
There’s plenty to like about Hill this season. Assuming he stays healthy and Mahomes remains his quarterback, there really isn’t much downside to him. He should finish as a top five wideout in 2020. He’s talented enough to have a steady floor each week, and his speed allows him to have breakout games with big plays. He should be viewed as an elite first-round option.
Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Tyreek Hill had a solid 5-72 last week as he's now had 50 or more yards in every game (aside from the two he got injured in). He's also had five or more receptions in all of those games except for one. It's rare to find players that are so consistent, and that's why you should trust Tyreek Hill as your WR1 this week. He does face a tough Chargers defense that's allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers, but his ceiling is too high to consider sitting him. Put him in your starting lineup for Week 17.
Week 16 at Chicago Bears
Tyreek Hill was efficient last week, scoring twice on just five receptions for 67 yards. He's finished with at least 50 yards in every game he didn't get injured in, and has scored in seven times in those eight games. When he plays, he's dominated and that should be the case this week even in a fairly tough matchup against the Bears. Chicago's tough on receivers, but not lockdown. Hill should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 16.
