Week 3 vs. Buffalo Bills
In Week 2, Tyreek Hill put up a stat line reminiscent of his Chiefs days. Hill finished 11-190-2 on 13 targets as he's now seen 25 targets through two games. It's been an incredible start for Hill, but it's also important to remember it's only been two games. Hill isn't likely to put up those stat lines on a week-to-week basis, especially this week in a brutal matchup vs. the Bills. Buffalo has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers through two games this year, most notably only giving up one receiving touchdown to WRs. Although with Hill averaging double-digit targets, he should see enough volume to still be relevant in a tough matchup. He should still be viewed as a must-start WR1 this week.
Week 2 at Baltimore Ravens
Tyreek Hill is off to a good start in his Dolphins career. He saw a team-high 12 targets in Week 1, finishing 8-94-0. He also had a carry for six yards. We expected this to be the game plan for Hill, tons of targets on shorter routes. Pretty similar to what we saw with Jaylen Waddle a year ago. Expect Hill to keep up the production this week in a favorable matchup against the Ravens. Hill should continue to be viewed as a top-10 WR heading into Week 2.
Week 1 vs. New England Patriots
Tyreek Hill has been one of the most dominant wide receivers in fantasy since joining the league in 2016. A lot of that is Hill's own talent, but we can't ignore the impact of playing with Patrick Mahomes as well. Despite Hill's constant praise of Tua Tagovailoa, it's most definitely a downgrade at the QB position. But Hill is a good-enough player to still make an impact. Hill gets a real test in Week 1 as he faces a tough Patriots defense that allowed the second-fewest average fantasy points to receivers a year ago. But Hill has overcome bad matchups plenty of times. He should still be viewed as a top 10 option at the WR position, making him a must-start player in Week 1.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Tyreek Hill has been one of the best at his position ever since taking a lead role in 2017. In fact, he has the 8th-most receptions, 4th-most receiving yards, and 2nd-most receiving touchdowns in that span. He’s been incredibly consistent, finishing as WR8, WR1, WR30 (injured), WR2, and WR6 in those years. He gets a change of scenery in Miami where he joins creative HC Mike McDaniel, who made Deebo Samuel WR3 last season. While we may not see the same running back usage out of Hill that we saw with Samuel, we’ve seen Hill on the ground plenty throughout his career as he has 93 career rush attempts.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Hill gets a downgrade at QB as he goes from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. He also joins a different system. Kansas City threw the ball 675 times last season, good for second-most in the league. McDaniel’s 49ers team had 514 attempts, fourth-fewest in the league. Hill also goes from being the guy in Kansas City to just one of the guys in Miami. Yes, he’ll be WR1, but there’s more talent in the WR corps here with Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson. All of this leads to fewer targets on fewer pass attempts, which ultimately leads to less production.
2022 Bottom Line
Hill is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, and should still be viewed as a WR1 in fantasy. The difference this year, however, is he won’t be the WR1 most likely. In the past four seasons, Hill has averaged 80.5 receiving yards per game, and it’s really difficult to see that continuing in 2022 in Miami. With a new system and a new QB, Hill goes from being a top-5 WR to more like a top-10 WR. He’s still good, but he’s not that elite option you consider spending a 1st-round pick on. He’s more of a mid 2nd-round pick.
Week 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Tyreek Hill owners got some good and bad news last week. The good news he was activated from the COVID list on Saturday. The bad news is he wasn't fully recovered and put up a dud performance of 2-19 on two targets. He ended up playing a season-low 42% of the offensive snaps, partly because of his recovery and partly because it was a blowout game. On Wednesday, Patrick Mahomes said Hill "was exhausted out there" last week. With a full week of recovery, Hill should be better as he faces the Bengals in Week 17. It'll be a favorable matchup as the Bengals have given up the 7th-most average fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks. With Hill's ceiling, he should be viewed as a strong WR1 play in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Tyreek Hill was placed on the team's COVID/Reserve list heading into his Week 16 matchup vs. the Steelers. Since he's vaccinated, there's a chance he's able to be cleared by the time the game starts. But there's also a chance he draws an inactive tag. We'll keep Hill's Week 16 fantasy situation short and sweet. If he's active, start him as your WR1. If he's not active, don't start him.
Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
Tyreek Hill had a productive Week 14 considering the circumstances. Patrick Mahomes threw the ball a season-low 24 times, and pulled their starters following a blowout. Despite that, Hill finished 4-74 on four targets. He did play a season-low 67% of the offensive snaps because of the blowout. Hill should see more playing time this week in what should be a good game against the Chargers. Hill wasn't too dominant in his first matchup vs. the Chargers this season, finishing 5-56 on seven targets. We expect Hill to be a little more productive than that this week, more closely finishing with his receiving average of 79.2 yards per game. He does face a tough Chargers defense, though. L.A. has given up the second-fewest average fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. But Hill has been too productive this season to ignore at this point in the year. He should be viewed as a must-start option at WR.
Week 14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Patrick Mahomes' struggles this season finally caught up with Tyreek Hill last week. Mahomes finished below 200 pass yards, which left little production for Kansas City's playmakers. As a result, Hill finished 2-22 on five targets, his second-worst game of the season. To be fair to Hill and Mahomes, it was a tough matchup against the Broncos. Things will get much easier this week against the Raiders, a team we've already seen Hill have success against. While the Raiders are a tough matchup on paper, we saw Hill go off for a 7-83-2 stat line in his previous game against them this season. Look for Hill to bounce back from a bad performance last week, and trust him as your WR1.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Tyreek Hill had a surprisingly good game in Week 11 despite the Chiefs' offensive struggles. Hill saw 11 targets, finishing 9-77-0 as a receiver. And he added an additional 33 yards on the ground, giving him his third 100+ yard game on the season. Hill has seen consistent work throughout the year, averaging 11.1 targets per game while also getting at least one carry in all but three games. Hill has upped his receptions by nearly two more per game compared to last year while maintaining essentially the same yards per game. He gets a tough date this week against star CB Patrick Surtain II, but it's hard to imagine Hill struggling too much. He's been too productive this year to worry about matchups. He should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 13.
Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Mahomes snapped out of his slump, which meant a highly productive game for Tyreek Hill, who finished 7-83-2 on 10 targets last week. It's Hill's third game in a row seeing 10+ targets, and his seventh such game of the season. He's also had one carry on the ground in every game but three. Hill has been pretty consistent this year despite some up-and-down QB play from Mahomes. He's finished with at 5+ receptions and 60+ total yards in all but two games. And with Mahomes coming off a great game, fantasy owners should continue to feel confident starting Hill in Week 11. He gets a solid matchup against the Cowboys and should be viewed as a must-start WR1.
