Fantasy Upside
Despite turning 43 years old ahead of the 2020 season, there’s still plenty to like about Tom Brady. He was the No. 12 fantasy quarterback a season ago despite a poor supporting cast. Now he’s surrounded by two Pro Bowl receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and a pair of receiving threats at tight end in Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard. Brady had nine games last season with two touchdowns or more and topped 300 yards five times. With a better offense, we should see slightly better numbers in 2020.
Fantasy Downside
Brady is well past the age where quarterbacks typically fall off, but it’d be crazy to not worry about age somewhat. Only four other quarterbacks have played a season at 43 years old. Brady also adds nothing as a runner aside from a few quarterback sneak touchdowns.
2020 Bottom Line
We should see Brady flirt with around 4,500 passing yards and 30 total touchdowns. He’s in a favorable division where he’ll face the Saints and Falcons (who both ranked outside the top-20 in fantasy points allowed to the QB in 2019) twice a year. He’s in an offensive system that plays well to his strengths, and has one of the best WR duos in the league. And oh yeah, he has Gronk, too. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Brady finish as a top 10 QB in 2020.
Week 17 vs Miami Dolphins
Tom Brady faced an extremely challenging matchup in Week 16 against a Bills defense allowing the fifth-fewest aFPA to quarterbacks and emerged with 271 passing yards and a touchdown, which made him the week's number 12 quarterback. He's also the fantasy QB12 overall through 15 games, and the offensive success that the Patriots achieved against the Bills is a good sign for their scoring prospects this week and moving forward.
The Dolphins visit Foxborough in Week 17, and they rank 29th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Teams opposing the Dolphins have averaged 35 points scored over the last six weeks, and unless the Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Patriots will need to win this game to secure the number two seed and a first-round bye. The Dolphins have also struggled against the run (24th in running back aFPA), which is really the only potential hindrance to Brady's fantasy success. Brady's inviting matchup along with the game's playoff implications for the Patriots make him a great bet for a QB1 performance.
Week 16 vs Buffalo Bills
Tom Brady has started 14 games in 2019. He finished as a QB1 in seven games, a QB2 in five games, and just outside of a QB2 finish in two games. He hasn't been the fantasy asset of years past and has had just one top-five fantasy week in 2019. Against a Bengals defense in the bottom-ten in aFPA to quarterbacks, Brady threw for just 128 total yards and two touchdowns, as the Patriots rode a run-heavy gameplan to victory.
Brady's Week 15 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, is one of the only two teams to have prevented Brady from finishing a matchup outside of the top-24 fantasy quarterbacks, holding Brady to 3.7 fantasy points in Week 4. Buffalo ranks sixth in quarterback aFPA, while the Patriots passing offense has continued to struggle to find consistency. Brady is an easy fade as a starter in Week 16.
Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
Tom Brady has his worst fantasy performance of the season against the Chiefs in Week 14, finishing as the week's QB26 on 169 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception. New England's wide receivers share some responsibility in the outcome, regularly failing to create separation from defenders, but Brady also did his part making some uncharacteristically poor decisions. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has repeatedly proven his ability to maximize the strengths of his offensive core, but a massive improvement seems unlikely with just a few weeks left in the regular season.
The Patriots travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals in Week 15, a defense that ranks 27th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Brady has finished as a top 12 quarterback in every game in which he's faced a defense ranked 20th or worse in quarterback aFPA in 2019, but it's hard to ignore the offensive inefficiency the Patriots have displayed over the past four weeks. The Bengals have looked somewhat improved defensively over the past four games, having only allowed two passing touchdowns in that span, making Brady a risky start as a QB1 and a more likely QB2 for Week 15.
Week 14 vs Kansas City Chiefs
Despite a loss to the Texans in Week 14 and a Patriots offense that struggled as a whole to find success until late in the game, Tom Brady finished quite well for fantasy purposes, ranking as Week 13's fantasy QB6. Brady now ranks as the QB10 for the season, and despite a wide receiver group that's seen a number of starters come and go and now includes two rookies as key contributors, he remains fantasy-viable.
Brady and the Patriots face a Chiefs defense that ranks 21st in quarterback hits, yet 12th in sack percentage at 7.4%. This indicates a defensive front that isn't creating constant pressure but is very good at converting pressures to sacks. Brady's had issues in games where he's being knocked down repeatedly, but this game doesn't project to be one of those. Kansas City ranks 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks, but 31st in aFPA to running backs, which would normally encourage New England to implement a run-heavy game plan. Kansas City's dominant offense and New England's need to potentially keep up with their scoring pace should prevent this somewhat, making Brady a good bet as a low-end QB1 start.
Week 13 at Houston Texans
Tom Brady performed quite well in the Patriots' Week 12 matchup against the Cowboys, a rain-soaked affair in which receivers for both teams were dropping passes at an extremely high rate. For Fantasy purposes, Brady's 190 passing yards along with a touchdown weren't very useful, good for a QB17 performance for the week. Two of Brady's three wide receivers were rookies against a skilled Dallas secondary, so Brady's statistical output should certainly rise moving forward.
Brady will face an alluring matchup with a Houston defense in Week 13 allowing the ninth-highest aFPA to quarterbacks. The Texans are pressuring opposing quarterbacks at the lowest rate among all 32 teams, and they've also struggled in coverage. Five out of the last seven quarterbacks to face them have thrown three or more touchdowns. If Mohamed Sanu and Philip Dorsett return from injury as expected, Brady will have his full complement of receiving options, which would make him a QB1 option for the week. If either receiver (or both) were to miss the game, expectations for Brady should be lowered a bit to a high-end QB2 return.
Week 12 vs Dallas Cowboys
Tom Brady faced the Eagles in Week 11 coming off of a Week 10 bye, but neither he nor the Patriots passing offense as a whole was able to take advantage of what appeared to be an inviting matchup. His 216-yard passing performance ranked him as the QB23 for the week, and the QB10 overall. Brady's receiving corps has undergone numerous changes through ten games, and New England's offensive line has been missing its starting center and left tackle through Week 11.
Brady will get left tackle Isaiah Wynn back for Week 12, which is a significant upgrade for New England's offensive line. Unfortunately, it appears that a minor injury will keep Mohamed Sanu from playing, leaving Julian Edelman and two rookie wide receivers in Jakobi Meyers and N'Keal Harry as the starting trio. Brady will face a Cowboys defense that's been about league-average in aFPA to quarterbacks but has a strong secondary and above-average pass rush. Wynn's return might be more of a boost for the Patriots rushing attack than its passing game this week. Brady's still startable as a QB1 but close to the bottom of that tier against Dallas.
Week 11 at Philadephia Eagles
Prior to his Week 10 bye, Tom Brady went up against a Ravens defense in Week 9 that leads the NFL in blitz percentage at 49.4%. Baltimore pressured Brady heavily, and it worked extremely well, limiting him to 285 total yards with a touchdown and an interception despite 46 pass attempts (his highest total in a game this season). Brady finished as Week 9's QB20, and following the Patriots' bye, he ranks as the fantasy QB10 overall.
The Patriots face the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, a team whose defense blitzes significantly less frequently than the Ravens, and yet pressures opposing quarterbacks at a higher rate. Fortunately for Brady, the Eagles also own a sub-par secondary, and their 17.7 aFPA to quarterbacks is the 12th-most. Brady also has all of his offensive weapons healthy and at his disposal, with red-zone weapon N'Keal Harry expected to see his first snaps of the season and Mohamed Sanu having had five full weeks of practice with which to integrate himself into the Patriots' offense. Against an Eagles team that is far more effective at defending against the run than the pass, expect a Patriots game plan to avoid Philadelphia's strength defensively and attack its weakness, making Brady a good bet for a QB1 performance.
Week 9 at Baltimore Ravens
Tom Brady faced a strong Cleveland pass rush in Week 8 and managed a solid 18.4 fantasy points, good for a QB12 standing for a week, and it nudged his overall fantasy ranking up to QB6. 59 of Brady's 259 passing yards were a result of two 20-plus yard passes, and he's now tenth in yardage resulting from deep throws and tied for fourth with five deep passing touchdowns. Brady's highest concentration of targets is still within five yards, but he can take advantage of deep opportunities when they're available.
Brady faces a decent Baltimore Ravens defense in Week 9, but they've been more forgiving to opposing quarterbacks than you might expect. Their 15.9 aFPA to quarterbacks is 16th in the league, and Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield have all thrown for 340-plus yards against this defense. The Ravens have limited rushing effectively, with a 12th-lowest aFPA to running backs of 22.9, which makes a pass-heavy game plan from Josh McDaniels likely. With his full complement of receivers healthy, and another week to get Mohamed Sanu integrated into the offense, Brady is a great bet for another QB1 performance in Baltimore.
Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady had a decent game in Week 7 against the Jets, but it was forgettable for fantasy purposes, as he finished as the fantasy QB19 after throwing for 249 yards alongside a touchdown and an interception. He now stands as the QB8 through seven weeks, and it appears as though the Patriots will continue to lean on the passing game moving forward.
Brady lost a top weapon with Josh Gordon being placed on IR but gained a new receiving option when the Patriots traded for Mohamed Sanu. Given Gordon's recent injury-hampered performance and Sanu's versatility, which makes him an obvious fit in New England's offense, the move should be a net-positive for Brady. The Browns 19.8 aFPA to quarterbacks is the seventh-highest figure, making Brady a surefire QB1 for Week 8.
