Week 8 vs CHI
Brady put up another nice showing last week, with a 37-261-3 line. Over the last three weeks, he's averaging a 36-367-3 line and has no turnovers. The early season struggles seem to be well in his rear view mirror.
This week he faces off against a Bears defense, allowing the 11th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, via aFPA. He should be locked into your lineups until he cools off, and he's our QB8 this week.
Week 7 vs New York Jets
Brady had a very strong showing in Week 6, throwing for 361 yards, 4 TDs, and no turnovers. Rob Gronkowski looking healthy has helped, for sure, but the whole offense finally seems to be functioning at levels we're used to seeing from Brady and the Patriots.
This week Brady faces off against a Jets defense, offering the 6th best fantasy matchup for opposing QBs, via aFPA. We have moved him back into our QB1 ranks this week, and have him at QB9.
Week 6 at Buffalo
Brady had a great showing in Week 5, his strongest showing to date. Brady completed 24 of 35 passes for 292 yards and 2 TDs, adding another 4-13 on the ground. His 292 yards are a high water mark, and this was his first multi-TD game this season. He also had his 2nd highest completion percentage and highest yards per attempt of the season. All in all, a great showing for Brady who finished as QB7 on the week, his best finish this season by a wide margin.
We hope Brady can carry some success into Week 6, but given the tough matchup on the road in Buffalo (5th toughest by aFPA) we rank Brady somewhat cautiously as a midrange QB2. A strong Week 6 showing would be a promising bump to his ROS outlook.
Week 5 at Cincinnati
There's no way around it, Brady's last outing was not good. The entire patriots offense was, to be generous, flat and never found a rhythm. Ultimately Brady finished 14 of 23 for 159 yards, had a 1:2 TD to INT ratio, and was benched in a blowout for Jimmy Garoppolo. It was just not Brady's or the Patriot's day. Unfortunately, we have yet to see the day where the Patriot's offense actually worked together well, and found a fair amount of success. As such, we're concerned about Brady's rest of season value, and have moved him down to QB22 in our ROS ranks.
We also have him as QB21 this week. Brady should be on your bench until Brady's performances, as well as the whole team's performances, improve.
Week 4 at Kansas City
Last week Brady went 24 of 37 for 1 TD and no turnovers in a bit of a disappointing, or at best middling, performance. We certainly would have liked to see more at home against an awful Raiders team, but our aFPA does note Oakland as the 10th worst matchup for QBs. Perhaps it was a tougher match-up for Brady than it would seem on the surface? Regardless, through three games Brady has only thrown for 632 yards and 3 TDs in a season where the offense has yet to really find a rhythm. This isn't all on Brady's shoulders, as the WR corps hasn't shown much, aside from Julian Edelman. A healthy Rob Gronkowski would be a great addition. Mainly, though, Brady really needs the offensive line to protect better, as the unit has been one of the worst in the league thus far.
This week Brady gets a matchup that aFPA shows to be much easier than last week, with KC currently being the 4th best fantasy matchup for QBs. With his matchup, high floor, and weekly potential to "break out" we continue to rank Brady in that QB10-15 range. He is our QB13 this week. Feel free to roll with better options if you have them, but Brady makes for a decent start.
Week 3 vs Oakland
Last week Brady completed 14 of 21 passes for 149 yards, 1 touchdown, and no turnovers. Brady performed admirably with a passer rating was 103.1 in a game where the defense did most the work necessary for the win.
This week Brady faces off against an Oakland defense allowing the second fewest passing yards per game, through only two games. Oakland is allowing the MOST rushing yards per game, though. So it's more a factor of game flow and lack of need to pass against Oakland, than it is a factor an elite passing defense.
Vegas odds have the Patriots as 14 point favorites. All this comes together - a week after we saw Brady not need to pass much - to give owners some pause in starting him.
Given his offense, surrounding talent, and history we still rank him at QB11 on the week. He offers a decent weekly floor, but there's some pause for concern about Oakland's ability to keep this game competitive. Starting Brady this week just depends on your alternatives.
Week 2 at Minnesota
Brady struggled visibly last week on his path to a 29 of 56 for 249 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT stat line. The offensive line struggled mightily against a tremendous Miami pass rush. If the offensive line can afford Brady more time against a softer Minnesota pass rush, Brady figures to rebound nicely.
Our rank of Brady as QB11 expresses our hope and sentiment that Brady will find more time and footing in Week 2 against the Vikings. Start him as you normally would.
Week 1 vs Miami
Brady heads down to Miami for the first game of the year. With the increased news of Rob Gronkowski's health this offseason, we bumped Brady up to our QB7. With Gronk looking good to go this weekend, we continue to rank Brady as a QB1.
With some minor health issues, Brady is marked as probably this weekend and should suit up. We're more concerned and interested in the health of his best redzone target, Gronk. While we expect Gronk to play, he may be on some kind of snap limit. Tim Wright figures to see extended looks if Gronk is on a snap count. While Wright should be an upgrade at TE over any non-Gronk TE from last year, we're not sure how good or mediocre he'll be yet. The Patriots will have better matchups than the Dolphins, though, who are underrated and solid on defense.
Overall, we have Brady as QB11 this week. Even with some concerns, we rank him as a QB1, which is telling of his overall body of work.
Fantasy Upside
Brady was a top 3 QB from 2011-2012, and a top 7 QB in the two years prior to that. The Patriots' young WRs have another year of development from last year, and Belichick has done a fantastic job bringing in talent and competition at the WR position this offseason. We can reasonably expect Brady's receiving corps to be better than last year. If Gronkowski plays most of the season, Brady could easily see a return to the form that gave him three top five finishes in as many years, from 2010-2012.
Fantasy Downside
Several of Brady's weapons have struggled with injuries leading to missed time. We're not here to debate "injury-proneness," but all of Gronkowski, Vereen, Dobson and Amendola have all missed a fair amount of time over the last few years. If you take away a QB's best red zone target, his passing down specialist RB, and one of his best 3rd down targets and so forth... he's going to struggle. Brady may have top five (or top three) upside, but it's not unreasonable to think that Brady struggles this year, as he did last, and posts solid QB2 numbers. While nothing is wrong with solid QB2 numbers, you may want more production from a guy you're selecting to be your team's QB1.
Bottom Line
I think Brady's value all depends on where you are able to get him in your drafts. 4for4 ADP lists Brady at 7.12 in 12 team leagues, and 9.04 in 10 team leagues. If you can get him after his ADP, as the 9th or 10th QB off the board, you've drafted him more or less around his floor - and the upside is there. Since the news of Gronk not being on the PUP came in, Brady jumped to QB #7 in our ranks. So getting him as 7th QB off the board may be about right, but relative to the other QBs available later in drafts, Brady does present a little risk/reward. That said, his "worst case" is likely as a high end QB #2, and that's a really nice safety net to have in a player with Brady's upside.
